Racing’s Kiss of Death – January 5

As any marketing guru worth their salt will tell you, messaging is critical. While Sting’s Racing Selections broke roughly even in 2011, 2012 brought with it a tailspin not seen since Maverick and Goose in the late 1980s, to the point where the column was put on hiatus for the last few weeks of the year. Here’s an excerpt from the October 20 column of last year:

“Tips for this Saturday cover the meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Caulfield Cup) and Randwick. This will also be the last such column for at least a month (courtesy of an overseas trip) and potentially the finale for Sting’s Racing Selections more broadly. There comes a point where you have enough data/ evidence to suggest that certain tipping columns simply aren’t ever going to turn a long-run profit – I think we’re at that point with these tips. “

There was (and indeed, is) a slight problem with this conclusion. Firstly, a site which offers tips for rugby league, AFL, NFL, netball and the occasional cricket, soccer or poker tidbit really needs a racing column to complete the series – its absence would just be weird. Secondly, I’m going to be betting the races anyway (albeit at a lower level than I once did), so why post the tips and see what comes of it?

So we’re back for 2013, albeit under a new weekly moniker more befitting of a column that bled cash to bookmakers for much of last year. To kick things off, January 5 tips will cover the meetings at Caulfield and Warwick Farm.

A quick recap of the ‘rules’ for this column:

(1) All tips have a prescribed track rating range attached to them (e.g. good 2 to dead 5, dead 4 to slow 7, etc.) – if the track rating on the day falls outside this range, the tip is invalid and won’t be counted towards results.

(2) Allocation of units per bet will be dictated by the official SP (starting price). If the SP is $5.50 or less, it’s too short (my strike rate has never, ever been good on the short ones) and no bet is recorded. If the SP is in the $6.00 to $9.50 range, 1 unit will be bet. If the SP is $10 or greater, 0.5 units will be bet. Results will be recorded using both the SP and Luxbet’s “Best of Best’ (BOB) price.

Saturday January 5

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 3 Follonica

• Was hampered badly last start at Moonee Valley, so forgive that run completely when assessing this race.
• In her two runs prior to this, she ran third (beaten 1.4 lengths) and fourth (beaten only 0.9 lengths) in two Listed races during the Spring carnival, so this BM89 race represents a major drop in class.
• She has had six weeks between runs, but has two wins and two placings from five first-up runs in her career, so the freshen up should be beneficial.

Race 8 No. 8 Snow Cover

• He finally struck a genuinely dry track last start and was beaten less than a length by Future Solution at Flemington.
• Overall, he has five wins and five placings from 15 starts on good tracks, compared to no wins and two placings from 10 starts on tracks rated dead or worse.
• He has won twice at the distance.
• With only 53.5 kilos (half a kilo under the limit) after the claim and gate two, he should get a lovely run in transit.

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 3 Hypurr

• His first run in Australia was excellent, when he fought on well after racing wide to finish less than two lengths off Adebisi in the Listed Razor Sharp Quality a fortnight ago (losing a photo to Riva De Lago for third).
• While finishing unplaced in all six runs during his last preparation in Hong Kong he ran some very good races, including a pair of fifth placings at Group 1 WFA level.
• He has three wins (including one at Group level) and a second from seven previous runs over 1400 metres, as well as two wins and a second from four runs second-up.

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2013.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo