September 1 Racing Selections

With the spring racing starting to warm up, tips for September 1 cover the meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 2 Memsie Stakes), Rosehill (featuring the Group 3 Run To The Rose) and Eagle Farm.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for August 25 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Shiny Buttons, Livigno

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Moonee Valley – Royal Bender ($7.00 SP) – unplaced

Doomben – Whateverwhenever ($7.00) – unplaced

August 25 results:   2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  58 selections, 58 units bet, 5 winners, 20 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 38.00 units (POT = -34%), BOB return of 40.90 units (POT = -29%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Warwick Farm – New Beginning ($12.00 SP) – unplaced

August 25 results:  1 selection, no winners

2012 results:  17 selections, 8.5 units bet, 2 winners, 2 thirds, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = +29%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +41%)

Overall Results

August 25:  3 selections, 2.5 unit bet, no winners

2012:  75 selections, 66.5 units bet, 7 winners, 22 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 49.00 units (POT = -26%), BOB return of 52.85 units (POT = -21%)

 

Saturday September 1

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 2 No. 7 Biancon Rose

• She was ridden ‘upside down’ when resuming at Sandown, leading the field in running before running third against the boys on a heavy track. She’ll be much better suited in mares’ company, on a drier track and ridden with a sit.
• She has two wins and two placings from five starts at 1400 metres.
• She has two wins and a placing from five starts at Caulfield, including a win and a placing from two starts at this track/ distance.
• She gets into this race very nicely with just 52 kilos (two under the limit) after the claim.

Race 3 No. 6 Light Express

• She was disappointing at her last start but that was at Group 3 WFA level over 1200 metres, so the drop in both distance and class will assist.
• She is a 1000-metre specialist, with four wins and a second from just six starts at the trip (and conversely, one win and four placings from 10 starts at all other distances).
• Prior to her last start, she won three races on end at this distance in Adelaide by a combined 8.3 lengths.
• She has a fitness edge over a number of other horses who are either first-up or second-up in this race.
• From barrier six she should roll forward and have every chance to fight out the finish.

Race 6 No. 11 Green Moon

• He is first-up into a Group 2 WFA race (perhaps his toughest assignment yet), but his last fresh run was in March when he spotted the smart Pied A Terre three kilos and beat him to win the Group 2 Blamey Stakes.
• Last year he won the Group 3 Newcastle Cup when three wide for much of the journey, then ran a strong second to Southern Speed in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup, so class is not a problem.
• In a race where the early speed looks minimal, he can use barrier five to take up a forward position and be hard to catch.

 

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 8 Prince Pedro

• His last start fourth placing at Flemington was his first attempt at 1700 metres, and he looks better suited here in dropping back to 1300.
• His four starts prior to Flemington resulted in four wins, all over the 1200-1400 metre range, and included a strong-finishing win at Caulfield two starts ago.
• He now has six wins and three placings from just 12 career starts, including wins on all track surfaces from good through to heavy.
• From barrier three he should be either leading or close to the speed, while a number of his biggest rivals will be spotting him a significant headstart.

Race 4 No. 11 Gangster’s Choice

• This gelding has really come of age recently, with four wins and two seconds from his most recent seven starts.
• He resumed last start with a strong win over Soledad at Warwick Farm over 1400 metres. While he meets that galloper four kilos worse off today, he has won up to 1900 metres  while Soledad has only won to 1300, and therefore the rise in distance to 1500 is likely to suit him better.
• His career record stands at five wins and three seconds from 12 starts, which improves to five wins and two seconds from just seven starts where the track was rated dead or better.

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 4 Carry To Fortune

• The short-priced favourite Latin News hasn’t won since February 2011 and never raced at 1000 metres, so I am looking to work around him here an opted for this mare.
• She drops back to 51 kilos for this race, the same weight she carried to victory at this track and trip (over the second favourite for this race in Haizum) two starts ago.
• She has two wins and a placing from five starts at the track and trip.
• She and Shafeeq should set the speed, so it’s just a matter of whether she can keep going. At the odds on offer, I’m willing to have a little something on her being able to do so.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo