September 15 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on September 13, 2012

Tips for September 15 cover the meetings at Moonee Valley (featuring the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes) and Rosehill (featuring the Group 1 Golden Rose).

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for September 8 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – D’Jet

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Flemington – Shanghai Warrior ($6.50 SP) – unplaced

Warwick Farm – Lights In Heaven ($9.00) – unplaced

September 8 results:   2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  64 selections, 58 units bet, 5 winners, 22 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 38.00 units (POT = -41%), BOB return of 40.90 units (POT = -36%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Flemington – Mr Chard ($11.00 SP) – unplaced

Flemington – Sea Galleon ($12.00) – unplaced

Warwick Farm – Steps In Time ($10.00) – unplaced

September 8 results:  3 selections, no winners

2012 results:  20 selections, 10 units bet, 2 winners, 2 thirds, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = +10%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +20%)

Overall Results

September 8:  5 selections, 3.5 units bet, no winners

2012:  84 selections, 74 units bet, 7 winners, 24 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 49.00 units (POT = -34%), BOB return of 52.85 units (POT = -29%)

 

Saturday September 15

Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 4 Glaneuse

  • He is a real specialist at the mile, with four wins and two placings from just seven starts over the journey (including back-to-back wins in the Listed Winter Championship.
  • His last start effort was solid, when sixth behind Southern Speed at WFA level after a seven-week layoff following his Winter Championship win.
  • Already has a win and a placing (in the Wangoom Handicap) at Listed level this preparation, so the class of this race presents no problem.

Race 6 No. 3 Linton

  • Last time in, he resumed over 1600 metres in the Group 3 R.A. Lee Stakes in May, which he won.
  • His record at the distance is excellent (two wins and a placing from four starts), with the one ‘miss’ a sixth in the race last year, after he was shuffled back through the field midrace and had no luck.
  • He has a win and a third from three starts at Moonee Valley, with the one unplaced run coming in this race last year (see above).
  • In a race devoid of much speed, he may well cross from barrier 12 to lead – if so, he will take some catching.

Race 8 No. 2 Pied A Terre

  • He has an excellent overall record of four wins and three seconds from eight starts.
  • He has two wins from as many attempts at the track/ distance combination, as well as two wins from as many first-up runs.
  • He can roll forward in a race which appears to have more than its fair share of backmarkers.

 

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 4 Maules Creek

  • The odds-on favourite Strawberry Boy rises from a BM76 race to a Group 3, and from 1600 metres to 2000 metres (where he’s had one previous go, falling backwards through the field in the home straight to finish eighth in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas).
  • Conversely, Maules Creek drops back from a pair of runs at Group 2 WFA level to this race, and has a Listed win and a Listed placing from three starts at the trip.
  • His record when second-up or further into a campaign includes four wins and two placings from 10 starts.
  • His record on good tracks (excluding WFA races) includes three wins and two placings from just six starts.

Race 8 No. 9 Potions

  • Her overall record (one win and five placings from 14 starts) appears poor from a punting perspective, but she drops massively in class from Listed/ Group 2 assignments to a BM85 race here.
  • The last time she ran in restricted grade, she was beaten in a photo at BM95 level after settling further forward than usual – from barrier two, she can repeat the dose here.
  • Her only previous Rosehill run was first-up last preparation, where she ran second.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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