September 22 Racing Selections

Tips for September 22 cover the meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Underwood Stakes), Randwick (featuring the Group 1 George Main Stakes) and Morphettville.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for September 15 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Pied A Terre, Maules Creek

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Moonee Valley – Linton ($8.50 SP) – unplaced

Rosehill – Potions ($8.50) – unplaced

September 15 results:   2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  66 selections, 66 units bet, 5 winners, 22 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 38.00 units (POT = -42%), BOB return of 40.90 units (POT = -38%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Moonee Valley – Glaneuse ($11.00 SP) – unplaced

September 15 results:  1 selection, no winners

2012 results:  21 selections, 10.5 units bet, 2 winners, 2 thirds, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = +5%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +14%)

Overall Results

September 15:  3 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners

2012:  87 selections, 76.5 units bet, 7 winners, 24 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 49.00 units (POT = -36%), BOB return of 52.85 units (POT = -31%)

 

Saturday September 22

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 3 Utah Saints

• He has a solid record when fresh (one win and three placings from five starts) and with winning form up to 1400 metres, will be finishing strongly.
• Spent most of his last campaign running over 1400 metres with limited success, but I think he is better suited over the 1100-1200 metre range (he has one win from two starts over 1100 metres).
• With a number of speedsters engaged here, he can position himself just behind the leaders and be well placed to challenge in the straight.

Race 5 No. 4 Testascana

• His last start second to Fawkner was a strong form reference for a race such as this.
• He also tends to perform more strongly as he gets further into a preparation – two wins and six placings from 12 starts when first or second-up, but seven wins and a placing from 15 starts third-up or later. He will be third-up today.
• He has two wins from three previous starts at Caulfield.
• From barrier four, he can be positioned just behind the leaders and be given every chance in the straight.

Race 8 No. 11 Folding Gear

• His last start effort in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap has to be forgiven, as he never got a clear crack at them.
• He is third-up today and much like Testascana, his stats improve significantly at that point – no wins and two placings from eight starts when first or second-up, but three wins and two placings from just five starts third-up or later.
• He has two wins and a placing from four starts at Caulfield, including an impressive win at the track and distance in the Group 3 Easter Cup in April.
• Drawn nicely in barrier five, while a number of his main rivals in this race are drawn quite wide.

Race 9 No. 1 Mosheen

• Her first-up effort wasn’t great, but there’s no way I’m letting a mare who has won four Group 1 races in her last six starts go around at each-way odds in a Group 3 SWP Mares race without carrying my cash.
• She has two wins and three placings from five starts at Caulfield, including a convincing win in her only run at the track and distance, and is drawn nicely in barrier four.

 

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 5 Speediness

• His first-up effort was very sound, when fifth to We’re Gonna Rock in the Group 3 Bobby Lewis Handicap.
• He has a win (last preparation) and two placings from three previous second-up runs.
• He has a win and two placings from three races over the 1400 metres.
• When last in Sydney, he put in a complete ‘forgive’ run when seventh in the Group 2 Ajax Quality, before running a close second to Fast Clip in the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude.
• Drawn nicely in barrier three to stalk the speed, most likely set by Steps In Time.

 

Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 7 Hidden Value

• He has three wins and two placings from seven career starts, including three wins and a second from five starts at this distance.
• Last preparation he ran second in an open 3YO event and fourth at Listed level, so an RB86 race should be well within his class range.
• He has a win and a second from two previous first-up runs – last time in, he resumed with a two-length win at this track and distance when carrying 59.5 kilos.
• In a race where the early speed should be strong, he’ll get his chance to swoop late.

Race 7 No. 1 Bagman

• His last-start win in the Listed Balaklava Cup when carrying 58.5 kilos (the same weight as for this race) when second-up from a spell was terrific.
• First up he ran third in the Listed Penny Edition Stakes at WFA level behind Southern Speed (who has since won the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes), so his form lines look to be easily the best in this race.
• He has won or placed in eight of his last nine starts.
• He has two wins and a placing from five runs at Morphettville.

 

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo