September 28 to 30 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on September 27, 2012

Tips for this weekend cover the Friday night meeting at Moonee Valley (featuring the Group 2 Mior Stakes and Group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes), the Saturday meeting at Rosehill (featuring the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes and Group 2 Shannon Stakes) and the Sunday meeting at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes).

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for September 22 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Speediness, Hidden Value, Bagman

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Folding Gear ($7.50 SP, $8.00 BOB) – Won

Caulfield – Mosheen ($7.00) – unplaced

September 22 results:   2 selections, 1 winner, SP return of 7.50 units, BOB return of 8.00 units

2012 results:  68 selections, 68 units bet, 6 winners, 22 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 45.50 units (POT = -33%), BOB return of 48.90 units (POT = -28%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Caulfield – Utah Saints ($13.00 SP) – unplaced

Caulfield – Testascana ($13.00 SP) – unplaced

September 22 results:  2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  23 selections, 11.5 units bet, 2 winners, 2 thirds, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = -4%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +4%)

Overall Results

September 22:  4 selections, 3 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of 7.50 units, BOB return of 8.00 units

2012:  91 selections, 79.5 units bet, 8 winners, 24 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 56.50 units (POT = -29%), BOB return of 60.85 units (POT = -23%)

 

Friday September 28

Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 8 No. 1 Precedence

  • His second-up effort was fantastic, winning well at Moonee Valley over 1600 metres with 60.5 kilos.
  • His Moonee Valley record in general is excellent, with four wins from six starts, including a win in this race in 2010.
  • His third-up record is also very strong – it includes the aforementioned winning of this race in 2010, a seven-length win at Flemington in 2010 and last preparation, a fourth placing (beaten only 1.4 lengths by Manighar) in the Group 1 Australian Cup.

 

Saturday September 29

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 8 No. 9 Under The Sun

  • He has won four of his six career starts to date.
  • His first campaign in Sydney was a raging success, winning all three of his races in the autumn, including two at this distance.
  • His only previous start at Rosehill also resulted in a win.
  • He has trialled well twice leading into this race.
  • From barrier one, he should jump well, lead and prove hard to run down.

 

Sunday September 30

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 6 Solzhenitsyn

  • His career continues on an upward trajectory. While his overall record stands at 10 wins and six placings from 22 starts, his last 12 starts have led to seven wins and three placings, while his last four starts have all resulted in wins.
  • He won a Group 3 WFA race and another at Listed level during the Brisbane winter carnival, so while the rise to a Group 1 handicap race is still significant, it is within his reach.
  • He has five wins and two placings from eight starts over 1400 metres.
  • From barrier two and weighted with only 53 kilos, he will have every chance to demonstrate that he is up to this grade.

Race 7 No. 3 Stratcombe  

  • If you’re prepared to forgive a disappointing first-up run when taking on Group 3 WFA company for the first time, the remainder of his form reads really well for a Listed handicap.
  • He has six wins and five placings from 13 career starts overall.
  • He has two wins and three seconds from five starts at this distance.
  • He has two wins and three placings from five starts at Caulfield, including two emphatic wins last preparation.
  • From barrier three he can roll forward and give himself every chance in running.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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