Smashed Sternums and the Return of the Long Bomb, Panic in the Front Office and Drinking at the Last Chance Saloon: The 2009 NFL Preview

The salary cap, at least for the meanwhile, appears to be on its death bed and with that comes the end of parity and a fundamental shift to the Major League Baseball equation of success: money won’t ensure it but it is certainly the tool that gives you the best hope.

The NFL owners and the Players Association are negotiating the next collective bargaining agreement and it seems doubtful they will reach a resolution by the beginning of next season which means that there won’t be a salary cap in 2010. That has small market owners and those on the upswing in a panic knowing that the 2009 season could be their last opportunity before the rich owners buy success next year.

For many, this year is do-or-die and could be the only opportunity some recently rebuilt teams have to win a Super Bowl.

Hence the likes of Minnesota signing Brett Favre, the Bears going hard after Jay Cutler, the Bills (one would suggest in a fit of delusion) bringing in Terrell Owens and the Redskins purchasing Albert Haynesworth, among other transactions designed to bring immediate success. Long term planning is being abandoned, particularly by those teams on the cusp or those with a history of reaching.

2009 will be one hellish race and it will break the backs of some teams for many years to come. Brace yourself. Protect your ears. Speed kills and so does a linebacker jacked up on the presumption of being at the Last Chance Saloon and all kinds of medication. Get set for another heavy year of football action.

AFC East: Resumption of Normal Programming

After five straight division titles that included two Lombardi trophies and four AFC Championship appearances, the Patriots run of dominance in the AFC East came to a dramatic end. Seven minutes into the season, Tom Brady went down with a knee injury that would sideline him for the remainder of the year. The Pats were gallant and went 11-5 but were killed by Brady’s knee injury and the surprising resurgence of Miami, who also went 11-5 but claimed the division on tie breakers. If there is one thing that is for certain in 2009 it is that New England will finish above Miami. You can bet your knee or thumb on that proposition. Only another crippling knee injury to Brady will stop the Patriots from reclaiming the AFC East. Even without Brady and with the fourth worst injury toll in the NFL, the Pats had the best offence down the stretch in the NFL as they went on to win five of their last six including putting up 40 plus scores on three occasions.

Their defence has more young talent on it now than in previous years with Jerod Mayo a potential franchise linebacker. Bill Belichick has an outstanding system in place that gets the best out of all players and it would be foolish to suggest the Patriots won’t at least progress to the AFC Championship Game. With coaching oh so important in January, the Patriots have a huge edge over most other contenders and are thus my selection to win the Super Bowl after an eleven-to-twelve win regular season. Miami are in for the big fade. They were major overachievers in 2008, seemingly getting all the breaks, ranking top in turnover differential and top four in injuries as well as benefitting from a very easy schedule. Trickery took them along way last year but all that wildcat play won’t be nearly as effective with a season of tape for opponents to watch. Anything above seven wins for the Dolphins would be a genuine surprise. Downturns for the Bills and Jets are also expected. Buffalo had another middling season in 2008 with a 7-9 record, their third straight season with such a record and fourth straight losing year. And their only move was to bring in a loud mouthed receiver with declining skills. Bills fans are in for more disappointment as seven wins would probably be a blessing for Buffalo this year. The Jets had a charmed run in 2008 and still couldn’t make the playoffs. That was with Brett Favre. They go into 2009 with a new coach in Rex Ryan and rookie quarterback in former USC star Mark Sanchez. Sanchez started only one season in college, however, and history is littered with quarterback busts who project well but start only one or two seasons in college. Six to seven wins are what the Jets are looking forward to.

Bets: 1 unit on Buffalo UNDER 7 ½ wins @ 1.74 (Sportingbet)

AFC North: Where Defence is King

It will be much of the same in the AFC North this year with only Pittsburgh and Baltimore in contention for the playoffs. The Steelers are always contenders. They are the defending Super Bowl champions and winners of this division in four of the last seven years. They have been in the playoffs twelve of the last seventeen years and they continue to be the blueprint for success in the NFL. The Steelers managed to exceed expectations in 2008 with Mike Tomlin proving a solid coach and the running game proving surprisingly deep. Pittsburgh went 12-4 last year and I expect something similar this year. Pittsburgh are a rabid defensive outfit, as you have to be in the AFC North, that creates opportunities and they have the grit on offence to be effective. Roethlisberger does what he needs to do and conservatism in play calling along with a solid home field advantage gets the Steelers home. They are going to go deep in the playoffs but I think they may be just a little short in offence with Tom Brady and the Pats back. An AFC Championship Game appearance for the Steelers at best, I think.

I loved the Ravens in 2008 and they improved as predicted thanks to the best defence in the NFL, a solid debut year from unheralded quarterback Joe Flacco, a simple playbook on offence with some trickery to keep defences off balance and an ability to win the turnover count. While their defence is expected to get better due to it getting healthier, it is doubtful they will have the point scoring ability that they had in 2008. An aging receiving corps and queries on the offensive line are the only major concerns. Expect the Ravens to make the playoffs in a similar fashion to the manner they made them in 2008 but a win or two less would not surprise. Keep an eye on Michael Oher, an offensive tackle, who was drafted by the Ravens this year after being the central character of Michael Lewis’s fabulous book The Blind Side. Of the remaining two, Cincinnati can improve by a win or two while Cleveland, despite a great schedule, are going to struggle to get to five wins. The Bengals were molested by injuries in 2008 and even a middling health run this year should see them better off. Carson Palmer played injured last year when he did play while the offensive line just couldn’t get it together. While the Bengals offence were abhorrent last year and just has to improve based on the notion that it surely cannot get any worse, the defence was serviceable ranking 12th in yards conceded and 19th in points allowed. There are a few signs there that Cincinnati can improve though it won’t be by enough to contend for the playoffs. The Browns, on the other hand, have nothing. They had a worse defence than the Bengals and only a similar attack along with a better run with injuries and turnovers. New coach Eric Mangini has yet to even settle on a QB. Bad times lay ahead at the Dawg Pound.

Bets: None

AFC South: Top of the Pops

The AFC South will again be the best division in football with all teams capable of eight wins and three playoff teams a distinct possibility (though I only have two making it this year). All four teams are strong, all four teams are not only capable of reaching the playoffs but are capable of winning a playoff game and all four teams will mix either a dominant offence/defence with a competent offence/defence. Indianapolis rate on top again despite the fact their run of five straight division titles came to an end in 2008. The Colts have won 12 games for six straight seasons and were a very good team last year who suffered with injuries. Peyton Manning will again run the offence which has a better one-two receiving punch this year with Marvin Harrison released and a better running game with Joseph Addai set to share carries with the promising rookie Donald Brown. The biggest query with the Colts is the change of coach. Tony Dungy is no longer in charge, replaced in-house by Jim Caldwell. Not much will change in Indianapolis and though Caldwell is unproven he should be given the benefit of the doubt considering his tutor. It should also be remembered that Tampa Bay won a Super Bowl the year after Dungy left. The biggest threat to the Colts this year is the Houston Texans. The Texans have the potential to have the most exciting offence in the NFL with Matt Schaub extremely capable when healthy, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels two big receiving threats and Steve Slaton a pocket dynamo in the backfield.

In 2008 the Texans ranked third in offence but struggled to actually score points. That should have been fixed in the off-season. Another problem for the Texans in 2008 was their ability to turn the ball over. Teams with big negative turnover differentials (-10 or worse) tend to improve significantly the following season with at least two extra wins commonplace. Defence is a bit of a query but they have a good pass rusher in Mario Williams and if they can improve to competent then the Texans can challenge for the division with 10-11 wins and may make a run at the AFC Championship. The Titans had an outstanding 2008 but had a good run with injury and lost their key defensive player in Albert Haynesworth to free agency. Kerry Collins is a year older, the defence is aging, Vince Young is looking more like a bust and the team has lost start defensive co-ordinator Jim Schwartz to a head coaching gig at Detroit: all significant negatives. They do have outstanding tailback Chris Johnson, a real game winner, and a brilliant offensive line; however, so all is not lost. The Titans will come back to the pack and though I have them just missing the playoffs they will not be far away. Jacksonville will also be around the mark. The Jags had an awful year in 2008 thanks to a bad injury toll and a receiving corps that imploded. The recruitment of Torry Holt is will help David Garrard and investment in the offensive line should also help the attack. The Jaguars will improve and 8-8 seems a reasonable prediction.

Bets:
1 ½ units on Indianapolis OVER 9 ½ wins @ 1.74 (Sportingbet)
½ unit on Houston to win AFC South @ 4.10 or better (@4.75 BetCris, 4.3 IAS)

AFC West: How the Mighty Have Fallen

The AFC West is a one team division. Once one of the proudest divisions in football, the AFC West is these days considered a fair-to-middling comedy act that provides the odd chuckle but little else. Oakland continues to be an absolute mess under Al Davis. Head coach Tom Cable punched an assistant in the jaw during pre-season. That fairly much sums them up. If that isn’t enough then know they have put their faith in Jamarcus Russell. Those two words should strike fear into any Raiders fan as he is the worst starting QB in the NFL. Only the death of Al Davis will save this franchise. The Chiefs are only marginally better off. They only won two games in 2008 but were a little stiff and probably deserved to finish around the four win mark. This year with new coach Todd Haley (a major upgrade on Herm Edwards), new QB Matt Cassell and new GM Scott Pioli (a Patriots protégé), Kansas City are in a much better position than they have been over the last few seasons where they have won only two of their last twenty-five. They are, however, starting from a very low base and rank in the worst quarter for both offence and defence. They are changing to a 3-4 from a 4-3 defensive base, they traded their best attacking weapon in Tony Gonzalez and they have absolutely no pass rush. All bad signs.

The Chiefs should be good in a couple of years but 2009 won’t see them win anymore than six games. Denver are probably only marginally better than Kansas City but they are heading in the other direction. They axed Mike Shanahan and bought in former Pats co-ordinator Josh McDaniels, who immediately drove the starting QB and hope for the franchise out-of-town. That is not a great first impression. The Broncos finished 8-8 last season but significantly overachieved as the Broncos defence ranked third worst in the NFL. Denver also blew a three game lead with three to play to cost themselves the division. They have done little to fix their defensive problems with an aging secondary the biggest concern in the Mile High city. The only positive for the Broncos is their -17 turnover ratio from last year: teams with such a shocking turnover differential tend to improve. It is hard to see the Broncos improving, however, with eight wins probably their ceiling. That leaves the San Diego Chargers. They will win their fourth straight AFC West and are looking at a season that could net somewhere between eleven and fourteen wins. The Chargers have an outstanding team with few discernible weaknesses. Rivers has developed into a quality quarterback. LT should play better after an injury riddled season in 2008: he hasn’t hit the wall and is still a threat as both a runner and a receiver. Darren Sproles is a nice change of pace. Vincent Jackson is capable of becoming an elite receiver while Antonio Gates is already at that level. Defensively the Chargers have few weaknesses. If the Chargers can stay healthier than they did last season then they should be playing in the AFC Championship game. They should be but with Norv Turner as coach there is every possibility they won’t. There are few coaches who have teams underachieve as consistently as Turner. Worse, he is a terrible playoff coach who constantly bombs important games that his teams should win. He blows leads, he makes dumb decisions, and he fails to inspire his players. These are major worries. Nearly any other coach and the Chargers would be certainties for a Super Bowl appearance. Turner is their man, however, and the best I can offer is the division and maybe a championship game.

Bets: 1 unit on Oakland UNDER 6 wins @ 1.741 (IAS)

NFC East: Home of the Dog Fight

The NFC East is the home of the dog fight, both figuratively and literally, now Michael Vick has been signed by the Philadelphia Eagles. It is never an easy division to gauge and it is always close come December. The Giants won the division in 2008 with the Eagles winning a wild card berth. History dictates that those two teams along with the Cowboys will all be slugging it out again in 2009 with the Redskins spending big and making plenty of noise before fading out into the realms of mediocrity. Philadelphia can turn the tables on the Giants this year though both should make the playoffs as the NFC East nearly always sends a wild card team to the playoffs. The Eagles were better in 2008 than their record suggested and if they can stay healthy this year they will improve. “Shady” McCoy is going to be a breakout threat at running back in his rookie season and Andy Reid has the offensive brain to use Michael Vick reasonably effectively in wildcat plays.

The real key to Philly, however, is their defence. It rarely receives much acclaim but it actually rates in the top five in the NFL. The Giants will again be the Giants and should have 9-11 wins in them. Eli Manning should continue to develop. Brandon Jacobs is a big bopper who can eat up the yards. The defence is top notch though they will have to pick up their ability to get to the quarterback if they want to make it back to the Super Bowl. The big concern for the Giants is their lack of receiving options. Plaxico Burress is now in prison and that leaves a big vacancy in catching options for New York. They will therefore have to focus more on the run and will become a little more predictable. Dallas are looking a bit thin this year. They will benefit from cutting the distraction in Terrell Owens but depth looks a problem as does a weak secondary (with the exception of Terrence Newman) and the internal dynamics of the team does the Cowboys no favours. The Cowboys have a strong run and Tony Romo is more than capable but they are a fair way from a special team. They may sneak a playoff spot but will more than likely finish 8-8 and just miss out. Washington has again spent big and will again be taught the lesson that success isn’t found in a team filled with stars and jobbers. Teams need depth and the Skins don’t have that. They also have an aging tailback and a rubbish quarterback. Don’t expect much from Washington this season.

Bets: 1 unit on Washington UNDER 8 ½ wins @ 1.694 (Pinnacle)

NFC North: A Good Ole Boy from Down South Returns to the Midwest

In case you have been in hibernation since February, blocked off from all news sources and without contact to the outside world, Brett Favre is back once again and he is back in the NFC North. He will not, however, be wearing the green and yellow of the Packers. No, good ole number four will be in the purple of the Vikings. This will no doubt fuel the fires of hatred even higher in a division not known for niceties or pleasantness. Favre’s return is being dismissed by nearly everyone who isn’t a Viking fan or named John Madden but there can be no doubt he improves the chances of Minnesota plenty and it would not be clutching at straws to suggest it is the manifest destiny of Favre to finish with a Super Bowl victory. Minnesota has all the tools of a championship team. They have the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson. They have a top five defence led by one of the best pass rushes in the league. They have a speedy receiver, Bernard Berrian, who will provide Favre with the quality deep threat he enjoys while tight end Visanthe Shinacoe is a quality pressure valve for Favre, who has a history of using the tight end in the passing game. Everything is stacking up for the Vikings. The only query is coaching but surely even Brad Childress can’t screw up the best team in the NFC.

While Minnesota has improved, so to have the other three teams in the division. One, Detroit, have improved but that is merely a matter of mathematics as you can’t go backwards on zero. The Lions won’t challenge for the division but can win up to four games. They have signed a brilliant coach in the defensive minded Jim Scwartz as well as a good team of co-ordinators. Matt Stafford is an extremely risky proposition at QB but with Calvin Johnson catching he should at least be competent. Kevin Smith is also a decent tailback who will be a key figure in the Lions rebuild. The Bears and Packers, however, will both challenge for the NFC North with one of the two claiming a wild card ticket. The Bears are probably a marginally better team and they are the prediction to return to playoff football. They were the beneficiaries of the biggest quarterback trade of the last decade. It is almost unprecedented that a young franchise quarterback who is coming off a Pro Bowl season is traded but that is what happened to Jay Cutler when he demanded to be traded away from Denver after a falling out with new coach Josh McDaniels. That gives the Bears their first decent quarterback since Jim Harbaugh. It also fills an aching need as the Bears have plenty of other pieces in place including an outstanding running back who is effective on the ground and in the passing game, a quality defence, an outstanding special teams and a receiving corps just crying out for someone to get them the ball. With the easiest schedule in the NFL, the Bears are going to be back in the mix this year. A competent offence will take them a long way. The Packers aren’t, superficially, improved by many new additions but will improve with even a fair amount of luck. The Packers were one of the best 6-10 teams ever last year with a combination of amazing bad luck and amazing fourth quarter capitulations costing the team plenty. If they play like they did in 2008 and they can get a fair rub of the green they will finish better than .500 and may make a playoff run. The NFC North is a tough division and it may well be the most enthralling in football.

Bets: None

NFC South: Shuffle Up and Deal

The NFC South can best be described as Powerball combined with roulette with a touch of greyhound racing. Since the realignment in 2002, no team has won consecutive division titles with the team who finished last the previous year winning the division every year from 2003 to 2007. That streak would have continued last year were it not for an unlikely last second field goal that secured the Panthers the division title at the expense of the Falcons. More carnage is expected this season with both Atlanta and Carolina expected to drop from double-digit playoff teams to six win duds. Both were huge overachievers in 2008. Atlanta, with a rookie quarterback and first year coach, improved from 4-12 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008. Football Outsiders found that 17 teams have improved by seven wins in a season and only the ’98 New York Jets didn’t suffer a downturn the season after with teams on average suffering a four win downturn. With a schedule that ranks in the hardest eighth and considering the dream run the Falcons had with injuries in 2008, a big fall is expected. The same is true for the Carolina Panthers. The team, for starters, will struggle to recover from the awful playoff loss engineered by Jake Delhomme where he turned the ball over five times. He is a hopeless quarterback and finally the Panthers faithful are coming around to it. They have done very little in terms of roster change and they had a huge degree of luck last year. Carolina are another team with a tough schedule heading for a big fall. That leaves Tampa Bay and New Orleans and the Bucs don’t have the talent to challenge for the title or a playoff berth. New coach Raheem Morris will have an improved ground game to work with since picking up Derrick Ward but the lack of an even semi-decent quarterback is a big worry as is an entirely new look on defence and an ordinary bunch of receivers. 2009 looks to be a tough year for the Bucs. So the NFC South looks set to head to New Orleans.

The Saints will once again be an offensive powerhouse with Drew Brees throwing, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush in the backfield and Marques Colston out wide. Despite missing the playoffs the Saints were the highest scoring and highest yardage offence in the league and will continue to put up big numbers this year. Defence is again a concern but new defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams is likely to provide a better pass rush which will give the Saints some hope. New Orleans are far from an outstanding team but they look the best in a mediocre division.

Bets:

2 ½ units on Atlanta UNDER 8 ½ wins @ 1.833 (Pinnacle)
1 ½ units on Carolina UNDER 8 ½ wins @ 1.74 (Sportingbet)

NFC West: The Argument for a Second Division in the NFL

The NFC West looks terrible. Again. Only the 2003 Seattle Seahawks have surpassed ten wins in a season. There has been very little hope and there appears to be precious little of it now. Arizona shocked the world when they got hot in January and made the Super Bowl for the first time in the franchise’s sorry history. There won’t be a repeat this year. The Cardinals got very lucky last year. They were a mediocre and inconsistent team whose only real strength was an outstanding passing game. For that to succeed they needed a fit offensive line and that is what they had. With Warner a year older and injury luck likely to even out, it looks doubtful that the Cardinals will be back in the playoffs. More likely is a drop off that will see Arizona run last in the division. Beanie Wells may help a flaccid running game but there appear to be no fixes for a defence that ranks in the bottom quarter and some attitude deficiencies that saw the team give up in games against Philadelphia, New England and Minnesota. The Cards are looking at a six win season. The team to actually beat in the NFC West is Seattle.

They should return to their position as the big dog of the division. Seattle was crippled by injuries in 2008 with Matt Hasselbeck missing significant time along with the entire starting offensive line and most of the receiving corp. With injuries and a poor turnover differential likely to turnaround this year, a competent new coach in Jim Mora and a fairly soft schedule that includes six matches against their own hapless division, Seattle will certainly be better this year. Seattle also drafted outstanding linebacker Aaron Curry, who will make an immediate impact for the team. Seattle have an aging roster but have not entered a phase of rebuilding so they still believe they are capable of one last playoff tilt. This year will have to be the year. Nine to ten wins looks doable with a fair rub of the green. As ridiculous as this may sound, the biggest challengers to the ‘Hawks in the West is St. Louis. The Rams had a worse run with injury than Seattle in 2008 and worse, they had a divided locker room that forced a mid-season coaching change. Interim coach Jim Haslett was not hired with the Rams making the smart move of hiring defensive guru Steve Spagnuolo, the first defensive minded coach at the Rams for over a decade. St. Louis has invested heavily in the offensive line and that is a big indicator that the team will improve markedly. With a competent quarterback under centre, the Rams will have a better passing game. The same can be said with the run: Steve Jackson should have a better run with injuries this season and that will see the Rams offence become far more potent. The defence also looks better after more heavy investment in tackles, ends and linebackers in the draft over the last two seasons. The Rams lack depth but with a decent amount of luck they can win the NFC West. The San Francisco 49ers are set to again disappoint me and the rest of the loyalists who yearn for grander days. The Niners had a shocking turnover ratio of minus seventeen last season so that suggests an improvement that would see the Niners at .500 or better but all other indicators are negative. The Niners had a very good run with injuries last season. Yet another offensive co-ordinator has been hired and his name is Jimmy Raye and he is, by all reports, a fool. Quarterback is again a huge problem with Shaun Hill set to start. Top draft prospect Michael Crabtree continues to hold out. The Niners could make it to nine wins but they will more likely be sitting around the seven to eight win mark and will again be holidaying come January.

Bets:
½ unit on St. Louis to win NFC West @ 12.0 or better (16.0 BetCris, 12.0 IAS, Sportingbet)
1 unit on Seattle to win NFC West @ 2.80 or better (3.0 TAB, 2.8 IAS)
1 ½ units on Arizona UNDER 8 ½ wins @ 2.10 (Sportingbet)
2 ½ units on St. Louis OVER 5 ½ wins @ 1.75 (Pinnacle)

AFC Summary

Division Champions: New England, Indianapolis, San Diego, Pittsburgh
Wild Card: Baltimore, Houston

Championship Game: New England v San Diego

NFC Summary

Division Champions: Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle
Wild Card: New York Giants, Chicago

Championship Game: Minnesota v Chicago

Super Bowl Prediction

New England defeat Minnesota

Additional Bets:

¼ unit on Houston to win AFC Championship @ 23.0 (Sportingbet)
½ unit on Minnesota to win NFC Championship @ 9.0 (IAS)
½ unit on Chicago to win NFC Championship @ 13.0 (IAS)
¼ unit on Seattle to win NFC Championship @ 23.0 (TAB)
¼ unit on Minnesota to win Super Bowl @ 20.77 (Pinnacle)
¼ unit on Houston to win Super Bowl @ 41.0 or better (@46.0 BetCris, 41.0 Sportingbet)