The 10 Seats to Watch

This is the closest federal election since 1961 and for a generation of political nerds this is a nirvana that may never be seen again. There is always a certain level of pleasure throughout any campaign for election geeks who enjoy forecasting swings and deciphering polls and breaking down seats and analysing the sport of it all. We often delude ourselves though. Quite often the winner is known within thirty minutes of the polls closing and the remainder of the election coverage is spent dissecting where it all went right or wrong and measuring the extent of the destruction and the margin of victory.

Not this time. 2010 will be remembered as one of the tightest elections in the history of Australia. This is the king fix for political junkies. Punters, pundits, political geeks and to be honest, most of Australia, will be glued to one of the many stations covering it with the laptop at hand and the telephone to one ear and a glass of wine and cigar nearby. It will be a long night but a thrilling one and one that will be won and lost on a handful of seats.

Before I list the ten seats to watch tomorrow night, I’ll break down the election coverage teams because the last thing anybody wants is to be caught watching Dave Hughes when Antony Green is providing the first booths from Bass.

For starters, Ten. In a word: no. They are making a mockery of it by making it a 7pm Project event. That show is terrible, Charlie Pickering is terrible and anybody serious about the election tomorrow will avoid Channel Ten like malaria.

SBS starts too late with an 8:30pm kickoff so is probably one to pass on. John Warhurst, an old politics professor of mine will be on, as will numbers man Bob McMullan but the late start means they will be behind all night.

Nine and Seven have pretty much followed the same formula. Nine has an edge with their political star in Laurie Oakes, who is far more informative than Mark Riley. In terms of politicians, Nine also gets the nod with Peter Costello, Nicola Roxon, Mark Arbib and Michael Kroger while Seven have Graham Richardson but suffer with the likes of Alexander Downer, Tanya Plibersek and Scott Morrison. The big turnoff for both, however, are that both stations have chosen their breakfast fluff hosts to host the broadcasts with the painful Sunrise tandem running the show at Seven while the Today Show fools are pulling the reins at Nine. This makes both unwatchable. Nine’s use of Tracy Grimshaw takes points off their coverage too.

That leaves the ABC, the home of election coverage in Australia and the only place you can see the Emperor of Political Geeks Antony Green. The ABC will also have top political reporter Chris Ulhmann as well as top party numbers men Nick Minchin and Stephen Smith. The hosts will be Kerry O’Brien and ladies man Tony Jones. The only downside of the ABC coverage will be Bob Brown. But you can’t win ‘em all.

Now, with your election night coverage sorted, here are the ten most important seats to watch. They will determine whether the Gillard Government wins a second term or whether Tony Abbott pulls of an historic upset win.

10. Hasluck (WA)

The West Australian returns obviously close two hours after those on the east coast and as such WA is often forgotten on election night but with such a close election expected and only one seat legitimately up for grabs Hasluck could prove critical to who wins government. Hasluck could prove the last chance saloon for Labor with the ALP desperately hoping Sharryn Jackson can hold on to her 0.9% margin though the Coalition are expecting to win the seat with betting having Liberal candidate Ken Wyatt at $1.70 on the back of an expected backlash over the proposed ALP mining tax. If ALP sandbagging is to be successful, they will need to secure Hasluck. A tight race will have experts looking on this seat well after midnight.

9. Bennelong (NSW)

Maxine McKew was lauded as a heroine after defeating John Howard in his own seat back in 2007, becoming the face of Labor victory. A flood of money this week has her Liberal opponent John Alexander into $1.40 from $2.25 last week and $3.00 when markets opened. The loss of Bennelong for Labor will be symbolic of the link voters have made between State and Federal Labor as well reflective of the disillusionment those Labor voters who put Kevin Rudd into the Lodge three years ago now have. With no PM backlash, Bennelong looks likely to go back to the Coalition in what could be a crippling blow for the Gillard government.

8. Boothby (SA)

Many pundits have Labor nullifying losses in Queensland and New South Wales with gains in South Australia with polls suggesting Boothby could move into Labor hands. Betting sits in stark contrast to that notion, however, with the Coalition heavily favoured at $1.50 with Labor as big as $2.75. The Coalition remain confident of holding the seat. If Labor do claim Boothby then the Coalition will not win government.

7. Melbourne (VIC)

Melbourne has been a safe Labor seat for over a century but is now favoured to be won by Greens candidate Adam Brandt. Brandt is favoured to win the seat by both punters and pollsters with Labor now campaigning heavily on the lines of a vote for Brandt is a vote for Tony Abbott. This seat could have a major impact on who forms the next government. Convention dictates that in a hung parliament the party that wins the most seats is offered the opportunity to form government. If the Greens win Melbourne, a 73-73 results is possible, giving the three independents the chance to install Tony Abbott as PM. A Labor win in Melbourne and a 74-73 overall result would compel those independents to support Labor. The Greens are $1.50 to win the seat with Labor at $2.40 to retain it. 

6. Bonner (QLD)

There has been significant money for the Coalition to win Bonner in recent days with former Liberal MP Ross Vasta bet from around $2.60 into $2.00. If Bonner goes then Queensland will be much worse than first anticipated for the ALP with the seat thought out of reach with a margin of 4.5%. Bonner could prove the killer blow for Labor as if it goes then Labor will likely be left with 10 or fewer seats, an utter disaster considering they won 15 in 2007 and possess 17 after the last redistribution.

5. La Trobe (VIC)

If polling holds up then there will be a swing to the ALP in Victoria. The ALP will need such a swing in the seats of McEwen and La Trobe, the two marginals the Coalition currently hold in Victoria. McEwen is considered likely gone for the Coalition but there is still hope within the Liberal Party that the seat of La Trobe could be held by incumbent Jason Wood despite its margin of 0.5%. ALP candidate Laura Smyth is favoured at some bookies while Wood is the favourite at Sportingbet. This is a very close race and one considered necessary for Labor if they are to win another term.

4. Solomon (NT)

This is the tightest seat in Australia according to punters with betting at $1.90 take your pick and the last election won by only 196 votes. Labor are confident of holding the seat after controversy surrounding the Liberal candidate in the other NT seat of Lingari. Labor cannot afford to lose Solomon if the forecast losses in Queensland and New South Wales come to be and a disaffection with the Territory Government means this seat could very easily switch hands.

3. Greenway (NSW)

Labor can kiss power goodbye if they lose the Western Sydney seat of Greenway. It is the one outer western seat they are expected to hold with the seat now notionally Labor at a margin of 5.7%. Labor are heavily favoured to keep the seat but such is Labor’s concern in Western Sydney that on the last day of the campaign, Julia Gillard was in the seat, suggesting there are major concerns within the ALP that Greenway could be in strife. The loss of Greenway would be another seat that would signal the end of the ALP Government.

2. Lindsay (NSW)

So bad is Labor’s situation in New South Wales that they are now favoured to lose Lindsay, which is currently held on a margin of 6.3%. Western Sydney is becoming a write off but even in Labor’s worst nightmares they couldn’t envisage losing Lindsay six months back. Recent money and internal Labor Party polling now suggests the seat is in real strife, however, with Liberal Fiona Scott at $1.75 ahead of incumbent Labor MP David Bradbury at $2.00. The recent state by-election that saw a 25% swing away from Labor in Penrith has Labor terrified and a loss in Lindsay can be viewed as the total abandonment of Labor by the citizens of Western Sydney.

1. Longman (QLD)

The Coalition really made a mess of Longman, a seat that at 1.9% would have been eminently winnable had they not nominated a 20-year-old high school dropout. Had they nominated a sensible candidate then this one would be marked up as a Coalition gain but now victory seems unlikely. Coalition hopes of victory were boosted by a gaffe from the ALP on the eve of the election though giving the Coalition some hope. Labor are $1.55 to hold the seat and they had want to because defeat in Longman will mean that Labor have been thrown out of office with the Coalition set to win a majority in the House.

After being stuck deep in the belly of the election beast for weeks, crunching numbers and analysing seats, my final prediction is a Coalition minority government. The late money for the Coalition (Tony Abbott has firmed up from $3.90 into $2.70 in the last eighteen hours prior to writing) has me increasingly confident that there is an upset brewing. Nearly every good judge I know has the best case scenario for Labor being 77 seats and there is a very real possibility it could be worse. The money for the plus has it being exceptionally close with the 6 ½ seats start to the Coalition down to 4 ½ seats with the plus being backed into $1.70. The money for a hung parliament reaffirms this. The latest Newspoll has it 50-50 and the fact Julia Gillard has spent time in her last day in Greenway shows how much Labor believe they have lost in New South Wales. The endorsement of Tony Abbott by The Daily Telegraph and The Courier Mail further convinces me the Coalition will get a bump tomorrow. With the three independents likely to side with Tony Abbott if Coalition and Labor were locked on 73 apiece, Tony Abbott is looking like a real chance of being sworn in as our next Prime Minister. That is my prediction and that is how I have bet.