The 2013 AFL Lines – Finals Week 1
Finals footy is here – Tim Rogers is prominently involved in firing fans up for the four weeks ahead, while Jeep are doing their absolute best to pile more pressure on the team they sponsor in their first finals appearance since 2001. How great is September? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham ponder this and other matters of relevance to the weekend ahead.
CB
A tough Round 23 all around – you were on the wrong end of a couple of very closes finishes against the line, while I learned a cogent lesson in not backing sides whose motivation to win that match was nowhere near as high as it normally would be.
GO
Pretty fitting end to a home and away season that’s seen me battle from start to finish. That being said, readers of the 2013 Punters guide would find some vindication in having been all over Jaeger O’Meara for the Rising Star. You beauty!! Richmond top eight, Freo top four…It’s all happening. This weekend is going to be awesome.
Results for Round 22 selections
GO – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 0.00 units
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 1.91 units
Total – 8 selections, 8 units bet, return of 1.91 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 91 selections, 100 units bet, return of 82.66 units, -17% PoT
CB – 104 selections, 104 units bet, return of 118.77 units, 14% PoT
Total – 195 selections, 204 units bet, return of 201.43 units, -1% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Hawthorn (-11.5 to -12.5, 180.5) v Sydney, MCG, 7.50pm
GO
Sydney will welcome back a host of stars this week headlined by Tippett and Hannebury. They’ve still got a few injury concerns but as deep as they are through the guts they’ll be able to cover. From the match last week they’ve certainly got the most upside. The Hawks without the Buddy have a strong record and they can get under the radar without being so predictable. Their points for average is actually significantly higher without the great man. Sydney hate night footy, especially at the MCG. This game should be a comfortable leave but like Davie Warner, I can’t shoulder arms…Get on the minus.
CB
The Hawks have won the last four matches between these teams at night; the Swans the last two played in the day. The Hawks have won 13 of their last 14 matches where Buddy franklin has been absent, yet his suspension has seen this line shift inwards. The Hawks are 4-2 ATS as favourites of less than 15 points or more this year, but 5-11 ATS when favoured by more than 15 points. I feel like things have broken nicely here for a bet on the Hawks at the minus.
Saturday
Geelong (-18.5 to -20.5, 165.5) v Fremantle, Simonds Stadium, 2.20pm
GO
The first final in Geelong in 115 years…Good way to get ahead on the repayment schedule. Freo will be apprehensive about it but will also be relishing the opportunity to try and secure a home prelim. As an away team it’s difficult to say what’s more daunting. Freo in Perth or Geelong at the Cattery….McPharlin could return to bolster the defence but with Hawkins on a treadmill they can cover his absence. Crowley will go to Selwood and if he dusts him up like last time then the Dockers are a massive chance. How the fuck did he not get named All Australian. Every midfielder in the squad has lowered his colours to Crowley this year. He’d be my first choice…20 points is a big margin given the Dockers will lock it down. I’m all over the plus.
CB
I’ve been high as a kite (though possibly not as high as Johnny Cash eating cake in a bush – Google the meme of this and you’ll understand – but I digress…) on the Dockers all season. If this game were at the MCG or Etihad, I’d be grabbing the points in a heartbeat. However… the Cats have won 49 of their last 51 matches at Simonds (going back to 2007), including 46 wins by 18 points or more. In the past couple of months, they’ve belted both the Dockers and Swans by over 40 points here. I’m supposed to do anything bar betting the Cats at the minus here? Come on.
Collingwood (-24.5 to -25.5, 181.5 to 185.5) v Port Adelaide, MCG, 7.45pm
GO
This one is a bit of a tough read. Port have been amazing this year under Hinkley and deserve their spot in the eight but with minimal finals experience it’s hard to judge how they’ll perform this weekend. Their youthful exuberance could be a massive plus but it’s far more likely that the Pies senior group will stamp their authority on the game and set the terms. I fell there’s too much class at Collingwood (playing list – not a reference to supporters) right now for this to get close but I’ll be happily proved wrong – very happily.
CB
Before you go racing into the Magpies at the minus, consider the list of teams who have beaten Port by more than 4 goals this season: Geelong (twice), Hawthorn, Fremantle, Essendon (before their season went into free fall) and Richmond. That’s it. Throw in the fact that the Magpies are 6-9 ATS this year as favourites and to be honest, I would much prefer to bet the under. The Magpies are 12-3 under as favourites and 5-2 under off a break of 6 days or more. Between them, these teams are 8-6 under at night. Their last 3 head-to-head matches have all totalled 180 or less. Overall, night games are 40-25 under (a strike rate of 62 per cent).
Sunday
Richmond (-13.5 to -14.5, 185.5) v Carlton, MCG, 3.20pm
CB
In some respects, I really want to back Richmond – over the course of 2013, they have been clearly the superior of the two teams. But given the stranglehold the Blues have had over the Tigers in recent years (including their Round 21 clash less than a month ago) and the potential nerves associated with a first finals appearance in over a decade, how will they respond to the challenge of finals footy? I have no idea, and thus won’t be betting.
GO
A team playing their first final in over a decade against a team that actually didn’t qualify for the finals…It’s a strange dynamic and not one we’ve encountered before. I’ve burnt a bit of loot on the Tigers this year but I can’t see them falling off now. Carlton have proven themselves a class below this year despite all the hype. They lack work rate which is not a new issue for Malthouse coached sides. In front of 90,000 at the G I’m expecting a bit of a shootout so the over is in play but I also think the Tigers, with Reiwoldt back and Newman playing his first final, can put a space on the Blues.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Hawthorn -11.5 at $1.92 (Sportsbet)
2 units on Fremantle +20.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Richmond -13.5 at $1.91 (Sportingbet)
1 unit on Richmond v Carlton over 182.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)
CB
1 unit on Hawthorn -11.5 at $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on Geelong -19.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Collingwood v Port Adelaide under 185.5 total points at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
