The 2013 AFL Lines – Finals Week 2
Three upsets transformed the AFL finals landscape last weekend. Will chaos reign again this weekend, or will we simply find the top-4 sides rearranged come preliminary final weekend? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham assess the weekend ahead.
CB
Fun fact from our 2013 Punters Guide to the AFL season: Since the AFL shifted away from the McIntyre system at the end of the 1999 season, Qualifying Final losers have a 24-2 record against Elimination Final winners. Bear that in mind before you get too bullish about tipping an upset this weekend.
GO
What an amazing weekend of footy! The Hawks flexed their muscles without Franklin and Rioli after the Swans came out hard. They’ll be very tough to beat you’d feel. Fremantle dismantled the Cats at Simmonds stadium and with a home Preliminary final sewn up their chances of playing in the clubs first Grand Final look great.
Port were outstanding against the Pies, they wanted it more and it showed. Hinkley is a genius and Wingard is a freak. Hopefully they can get around the Cats this weekend…The Tigers ripped the hearts of their supporters out again after dominating early. God I’d hate to be a Richmond fan. Carlton made the finals by default but have given their supporters a September win. Can they get another one this week and scrape into a Prelim?
Results for Finals Week 1 selections
GO – 4 selections, 5 units bet, return of 7.67 units
CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 3.79 units
Total – 7 selections, 8 units bet, return of 11.46 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 95 selections, 105 units bet, return of 90.33 units, -14% PoT
CB – 107 selections, 107 units bet, return of 122.56 units, 15% PoT
Total – 202 selections, 212 units bet, return of 212.89 units, 0.4% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Geelong (-26.5 to -27.5, 178.5 to 179.5) v Port Adelaide, MCG, 7.50pm
GO
Port’s fairytale season will likely come to an end this week but as they’ve done all year they’ll play like their lives depend on it and give the Cats an almighty scare. With Hawkins unlikely to be a factor the Power team defensive structure that was so effective against the Pies last week should come to the fore and Podsiadly will be in for a long night. Boak and Selwood head to head will be eye catching as will the hard nut Logan on Stevie J. No Enright is also a massive loss for Geelong with Boris being their most consistent player over the last 7 years. He is the quarterback and they’ll miss him.
Geelong’s running brigade were substandard last week so they’ll be out to impress but if the Power take a leaf from Freo’s book and run hard with the likes of Varcoe, Christensen and Motlop then they’ll go a long way to winning. Four and a half goals is a lot in a final and I’m happy to take the points in this one.
CB
The stats make me want to back Geelong at the minus. The Cats have won 9 in a row against Port, including 5 matches by over 40 points. The Power are 1-4 against top-4 teams this season, with every loss coming by 25+ points and 3 of them by 45+ points. The last time that Geelong lost a qualifying final (2010), they bounced back by dusting the Dockers by 69 points.
The football that I watched last week makes me want to back the plus. The Cats were vulnerable to Freo’s outstanding pressure, and the Power will not be lacking for desire and intensity at the contest.
Both my eyes and the stats want me to back the under. Sides off a 6-day break (as both are here) are 71-37 under (66%) this season, while night matches are 42-25 under (63%). High intensity contests tend to manifest themselves in tense, low-scoring struggles.
Saturday
Sydney (-19.5 to -23.5, 175.5 to 176.5) v Carlton, ANZ Stadium, 7.45pm
GO
Carlton traditionally play well against the Swans and we all know how Sydney can struggle at ANZ. They’ve got clouds over some very important players not least of which is their skipper McVeigh who sets up so much of their attack off half back. They were lost when he went down injured last week and they’re light on for options if he doesn’t get up. Jetta was clearly short of a run and with talk of Goodes returning it’s hard to see them carrying both. Particularly given Rohan is also struggling after the better part of 18 months on the sideline.
Carlton won’t mind the fact they didn’t earn a finals spot, it’s not their fault Essendon are filthy cheats (sorry mate – had to have one last dip.) They’ll be very tough to beat this week with Judd and Murphy leading from the front. I’ll take the points here as well.
CB
I know we discussed not getting cute with 1-39 bets and the like a number of weeks back, but hear me out on this one.
Can I back Carlton to beat a top-4 side? No. They’re 0-4 this season against top-4 sides with a range of losing margins from 15 to 36 points.
Can I back the Swans to lose to a side ranked 5th or below? No. They’re 15-2 against such sides this year (but 0-5-1 against the other top-4 sides).
Can I see a blowout Swans win? No. The Swans have won 10 of the last 13 head-to-head, with 8 of their wins coming by 1-39 points. Their only match at ANZ in that period was in the opening week of the 2010 finals, with the Swans scraping home by 5 points. Of the 24 Qualifying Final losers to have defeated Elimination Final winners since 1999 noted earlier, 17 have done so by a margin of 1-39 points.
So there we have it – I feel a little dirty as I type this, but it’s the Swans by 1-39 for mine.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Port Adelaide + 27.5 at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Carlton +23.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
CB
1 unit on Geelong v Port Adelaide under 179.5 total points at $1.88 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on Sydney by 1-39 points at $2.15 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Geelong-Sydney ML multi at $1.67 (Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
