The 2013 AFL Lines – Grand Final
Will Greg Oberscheidt’s beloved Hawthorn Hawks avenge their Grand Final loss of 2012, or can the purple haze of the Fremantle Dockers take the premiership cup across the Nullarbor for the first time in the club’s history? Greg sits down with Cliff Bingham to assess the premiership decider.
CB
All week I’ve been trying to tell myself not to let my judgement of this match be clouded by being in possession of a bet made in March for Freo to win the flag at $15. The temptation to layoff on the Hawks at $1.65 straight out and lock in a profit is mighty tempting at this stage….
GO
Obviously no percentage on the line but if Cyril took his shot from 30m just on the siren then the Hawks cover…That said, the way they sprayed it all night he probably would have had an airy. Congratulations on a cracking season on the punt big man. I’ll be back betting you without a doubt.
I’m starting to get mixed emotions. Another season over and it’s had everything. Only one last piece of the puzzle to cap it off. GO YOU LITTLE HAWKIES!!!!
Results for Finals Week 1 selections
GO – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 1.92 units
CB – 1 selection, 1 units bet, return of 2.05 units
Total – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 3.97 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 99 selections, 109 units bet, return of 92.16 units, -14% PoT
CB – 111 selections, 111 units bet, return of 130.31 units, 17% PoT
Total – 210 selections, 220 units bet, return of 224.47 units, 2% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Saturday
Hawthorn (-7.5 to -8.5, 167.5) v Fremantle, MCG, 2.30pm
GO
Since getting belted in the ’10 elimination by the Dockers the Hawks have had the wood over the boys from Freo. Sandilands holds the key for them, if he can give the big bodied Freo midfield first use of the seed then they’ll be hard to stop but the Hawks engine room in particular Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne have plenty of success in sharking the opposition ruck. Case in point: Mitchell, who had 9 centre clearances last week alone. No one has done that since Moses wore shorts. Everyone expects Crowley to go to Mitchell but don’t be surprised to see him start on Isaac Smith, whose capacity to run and break the lines has been a massive advantage for Hawthorn this year.
Pressure at the stoppage and frenetic tackling are Fremantle’s calling cards but the Hawks don’t lack for pressure either. Expect Rioli to have a blinder after a soft performance in the decider last year. His form may belie it but at $22 he is a great bet for the Norm Smith. If he has a dozen touches forward of centre the Hawks will win in a canter.
If the Hawks break even through the guts then you’d think their forward line will get the job done. That said, they’ll need to convert and for mine they’ll turn around the yips and stick it right up the Dockers.
CB
To my mind there are three key red flags for betting the Dockers in this match:
Red Flag #1:
Everyone has become gung-ho about the Dockers in the last 3 weeks (they have been excellent), yet seems to have forgotten that the Hawks won their Qualifying Final by 51 points and then had 10 more scoring shots than Geelong in the Preliminary Final.
Red Flag #2:
The win-loss record of Ross Lyon’s Dockers in 2012 and 2013 against the elite sides shows one key outlier – see if you can spot it:
3-1 v Geelong with an average score of 83-85;
1-1-1 v Sydney with an average score of 83-79;
1-1 v Collingwood with an average score of 90-89;
0-2 v Hawthorn with an average score of 70-119
I was on the Dockers at the pretty significant plus (around 4-5 goals each time) both times against the Hawks and only ever had fleeting hopes of a backdoor cover, let alone an outright win in the match.
Red Flag #3:
As we touched on in the 2013 Punters’ Guide to the AFL Season, premiership success has often been the domain of teams that finished top-two on the ladder with at least 17 wins, won either 4 or 5 of their final 6 regular season games and then won the Qualifying Final.
From 2000 onwards there have been 11 teams meet each of these 3 criteria: Essendon 2000, Brisbane 2002, Port Adelaide 2004, Geelong 2007, Hawthorn 2008, Geelong 2009, St Kilda 2009, Collingwood 2010, Geelong 2011, Collingwood 2011 and Hawthorn 2012.
Those 11 teams all made the Grand Final and won 8 premierships. Of the 3 losing Grand Finalists, 2 fell to another ‘qualifying’ team. Only Hawthorn last year blotted the copybook of this recipe for premiership success.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Hawthorn -7.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
CB
*1 unit on Hawthorn -7.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
* For the record, I actually took the $1.65 Hawthorn straight out (to layoff my preseason Freo premiership bet) because if they won but didn’t cover I would be beyond crestfallen. But if I wasn’t already holding a Freo bet, the Hawks at the small minus would definitely be my bet of choice, and thus the one I’ll use for record-keeping purposes here.
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
