The 2013 AFL lines – PRELIMINARY FINALS
And then there were four. Who of the Hawks, Cats, Dockers and Swans will make it to the final Saturday in September? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham run the ruler over Preliminary Final weekend.
CB
Last week’s fun fact from our 2013 Punters Guide to the AFL season got the biscuits (thanks Cats and Swans!), so let’s run another one: Since the AFL shifted away from the McIntyre system at the end of the 1999 season, Qualifying Final winners have a 23-3 record against Semi Final winners.
Only three Qualifying Final losers have rebounded to make the Grand Final during that period, with all of them winning the premiership decider (which could be pertinent if you fancy the “Kennett Curse” to continue this week and want to snap up the Cats at odds of around $4.00 to win the flag).
GO
The Swans were impressive down on rotations but in retrospect that should have been the case. A top four side playing a side that was lucky to be in the top 10 let alone playing a semi final. Marc Murphy’s late miss for the cover on the back of Yarran’s butchered set shot from 30 added salt given that the Blues inaccuracy have cost us plenty of loot this year.
Port were valiant but the class of the Cats came to the fore. They’ll take plenty of beating but how costly will the loss of Chapman prove to be…
Results for Finals Week 1 selections
GO – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 1.91 units
CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 5.70 units
Total – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 7.61 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 97 selections, 107 units bet, return of 90.24 units, -14% PoT
CB – 110 selections, 110 units bet, return of 128.26 units, 17% PoT
Total – 207 selections, 217 units bet, return of 220.50 units, 2% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Hawthorn (-12.5 to -13.5, 179.5) v Geelong, MCG, 7.50pm
GO
This line feels about right for me. Whilst the Hawks haven’t beaten he Cats for four years, they haven’t played in a final in that time and as such Kennett’s assertion that the Hawks only win the games that count is still squarely in play. No Chapman and Enright is extremely doubtful, Hawkins at 60% the Hawks wont get a better chance. Enright is the big one for me, if he is out then Geelong can’t win. Mackie will be forced to play a tighter role and that will hamper their transition. Franklin fresh off suspension has struggled against Lonergan so expect him to try and get off the chain and play high. The curse dies tomorrow night.
CB
The case for the Hawks: The 23-3 record of Qualifying Final winners in prelims; their dismantling of Sydney was far superior to the Cats’ finals performances to date.
The case for the Cats: 11 straight wins over the Hawks; the line exceeds most of the recent winning margins in matches between these teams.
The case for an “either side under 15.5 points” bet: 9 of the last 10 (and 11 of the last 14) matches between these teams have been decided by less than 2 goals. However, none of those matches involved one team coming off an extra week of rest.
The conclusion: I have no freaking idea what to do with this game. No bet.
Saturday
Fremantle (-19.5 to -21.5, 163.5) v Sydney, Patersons Stadium, 7.45pm
GO
Sydney must be sore after last week. No Tippett probably helps them a bit as they become less predictable and get some scores from the midfielders like parker and Jack. No Mitchell on top of their already massive injury list. It’s hard to see how they can get around the Dockers coming off a rest. Fremantle are a tough beat anywhere but nigh on impossible at Subiaco. A big question is that after his All Australian snub, which Swans midfielder will Crowley dust up this week. I’d play him tight on McVeigh as a defensive half forward. Crowley is actually a smart forward himself and could impact the scoreboard in that role. Fyfe will have a belter, Sandilands will murder Pyke and Mumford. Freo by Plenty.
CB
The case for the Dockers winning: The 23-3 record of Qualifying Final winners in prelims; the Dockers 11-1 record at Patersons this season; the value of a week off; the Swans’ growing absentee list.
The case for the Swans not getting blown out: 7 wins and a draw in their last 11 matches against Freo (albeit a 1-1 record at Patersons during that time); the last 11 matches between these sides all having a margin of less than 40; only two Swans losses by 40 points or more for the entire season; the list of teams that the Dockers have beaten by 40+ this season (Suns, Demons, Lions, Giants, Demons again, Power).
The conclusion: We’re going for another “too cute by half” bet! Freo by 1-39 points for mine.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Hawthorn -13.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on Fremantle -20.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
CB
1 unit on Fremantle to win by 1-39 points at $2.05 (Centrebet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
