The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 18
Round 17 saw two major upsets cause by the Suns and Crows, both at home. Can any unfancied sides upset the proverbial applecart again in Round 18, or will the favourites dominate proceedings? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham preview the weekend ahead.
CB
A stroke of good luck last week where purely for the few extra cents in the price, I took North Melbourne in the “race to 25” (which they won) rather than to win the first quarter (which they lost by a point). Rounds 16 and 17 have been collectively good to us – onward and upward to a strong finish to the 2013 season!
GO
Great to see the Suns claim a big scalp. They certainly are a team on the rise. Injuries permitting they could go close to playing finals next year. Fremantle struggled without multiple options forward of centre and as good as Chris Mayne is tracking he couldn’t get it done himself. That said, they were there or thereabouts early in the last quarter before getting blown away. The Hawks and the Bombers never got out of first gear which was likely in retrospect given they clash this week. I think the Saturday Multi is worth persisting with though, even though it hasn’t garnered results as yet. We’ll give it another lash.
Results for Round 14 selections
GO – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 4.44 units
CB – 7 selections, 7 units bet, return of 9.42 units
Total – 11 selections, 11 units bet, return of 13.86 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 63 selections, 72 units bet, return of 63.52 units, -12% PoT
CB – 76 selections, 76 units bet, return of 82.41 units, 8% PoT
Total – 139 selections, 148 units bet, return of 145.93 units, -1% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Essendon (+18.5 to +19.5, 200.5 total) v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm
GO
The Bombers starting three goal dogs here is a bit of a surprise. Hawthorn haven’t been all that convincing against top flight opposition in recent times and the Bombers play a game style that has been shown to hurt the Hawks. Hard running and quick transition, a la the Cats, can cut the premiership fancies up and the Bombers do it very well. It is going to be a monster game and another chapter in the fierce rivalry between the two. I like the Bombers at the plus but I can’t bring myself to back it. Sparks to fly at Tony Harrison is a sure bet though.
CB
I’m not betting the line here – the 2013 ATS stats all point to my Bombers, but the Hawks have won both of the last two head-to-head matches by more than 10 goals. No thank you. Both teams arrive off a 6-day break (Essendon 5-0 under in that scenario, Hawthorn 3-1 under) which tempted me to take the under, but with 7 of the last 12 matches between these teams totalling over 200 and 6 of them finishing at 215 or above, that temptation didn’t last long.
Saturday
Gold Coast (+13.5 to +15.5, 179.5) v Carlton, Metricon Stadium, 1.45pm
Melbourne (+55.5 to +57.5, 199.5) v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Collingwood (-86.5, 198.5) v GWS, MCG, 4.40pm
Fremantle (-23.5 to -25.5, 158.5) v Adelaide, Patersons Stadium, 7.40pm
Geelong (-46.5 to -48.5, 183.5) v St Kilda, Simonds Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
I daresay there are 2 potentially intriguing matches here and 3 that I will endeavour to watch as little of as possible. Who do you like?
GO
I can’t quite figure how the Suns remain under rated at home. They didn’t exactly ambush the Pies last week. They just beat them playing solid footy. If you think the Blues are a better proposition that Collingwood at the minute then you are kidding yourself. The only thing to consider is the fact that Carlton have more riding on this game than the Pies did and they’ll be ready for anything. Whether they can cope with that is another story. The Suns with a generous start is the smart play. We’ll also take then -30.5 in the multi at $1.35.
North will dust up the Demons and could win this one by 20 goals if they don’t stop. They beat up the weaklings regularly and they owe their fans after a disappointing year. I’m comfortably taking them -29.5 at $1.35 as the second leg of the multi.
You’d imagine the Pies will be out for blood this week and their supporters will accept nothing less than a 15 goal win. The early line reflects this and whilst it is tempting to take the Giants with a 19 goal start loading in the Pies -59.5 at $1.30 is a smarter play. Cloke plays well against them and on the back of his spearing during the week I think he could kick a fair bag.
CB
Grabbing the points for the home side at Metricon is tempting after they took down the Magpies last week and upset the Blues’ finals chances in the corresponding game last year, but can they avoid a letdown match? I’m a little sceptical. The bet that I do like is the under. The Suns are 7-3 under in Queensland this year (15-8 under since the start of 2012), while the Blues are 3-0 under interstate (7-1 under since the start of 2012).
Last 5 winning margins for North v Melbourne: 2 of less than 42 points, 1 of 54 points exactly, 2 of more than 60 points. Last 5 totals: 3 in the mid-to-high 180s, 2 of more than 200. Suggested betting summary: avoid.
I’m not getting involved in a line of almost 15 goals, while the Magpies’ tendency to the under is negated by the Giants’ tendency to the over. Pass.
GO
Fremantle are a different proposition at home and the Crows could find it tough even though the Dockers are down on personnel. Some big match ups through the middle of the ground will decide this one and without Dangerfield it is tough to see Adelaide generating the drive they’ll need to kick a winning score. Crowley will run with Douglas and that will be a great match up and in my mind, game defining. If the second most hated man in the AFL can keep the Crows runner to minimal impact then the Dockers will do it easy. Have a look at the game line once the weather has been clarified as 158.5 seems low, even for the Dockers at home but Freo -4.5 at home for $1.30 is great noise.
Geelong will smash the battling Saints but again it is tough to know how many players they will rest. Reiwoldt has been down of late but that is understandable given the lack of service. The St Kilda senior players are too slow for the Cats and the young brigade haven’t got the skill. Expect a massive game from Stevie J in his return from Suspension. No Bartle hurts the Cats structurally as he is to go to man behind the ball. Regardless it’ll be an easy win and -20.5 at $1.33 should round out the multi.
CB
The Dockers-Crows line feels at least a goal too big. A stat that I used for the Round 10 preview between these teams (where the Dockers prevailed by 7 points) warrants updating: Since the start of 2009, Ross Lyon has a 0-3 record against Hird, a 1-3 record against Sanderson, a 1-3-1 record against Clarkson and a 75-24-3 record against everyone else. Throw in the fact that the Crows are 6-2 ATS interstate this year (13-6 since the start of 2012) and 7-4 since the start of 2012 off a break of 6 days or less (the Dockers are 5-6 ATS over the same period) and I’m grabbing the start of more than 4 goals.
The Cats are 1-10 ATS since the start of 2012 as favourites of more than 30 points. However, I can’t back a 3-13 side to stay competitive away from their usual stomping ground of Etihad against a 13-3 side with a point to prove after a second-half fadeout last week.
Sunday
Port Adelaide (-15.5 to -16.5, 177.5) v Brisbane, AAMI Stadium, 1.10pm
Western Bulldogs (+22.5 to +24.5, 190.5) v West Coast, Etihad Stadium, 3.15pm
Sydney (-24.5 to -25.5, 176.5) v Richmond, SCG, 4.40pm
CB
The key argument in favour of backing Port at the minus is the Lions’ record over 2012/13 by venue:
At Gabba: 10-9, +1 avg point differential (94-93), 12-7 ATS
Away from Gabba: 7-12, -26 avg point differential (77-103), 7-12 ATS
The key argument for the Lions at the plus is the recent head-to-head record, with the Lions winning the last 4 overall and 4 of the last 5 played at AAMI.
I’m ignoring both of these and betting the over. The last 8 matches head-to-head have all totalled 187 or more. Port has only totalled 180 or more in 5 of 8 home matches, while Brisbane has totalled 180 or more in 5 of 8 matches away from the Gabba. A day match with both teams coming off a break of 7 days or more is the ideal time to go over on a mid-170s line.
The over also looks like the best play in the Bulldogs-Eagles match. This year the Bulldogs are 6-3 as underdogs in Victoria, 5-3 over in the day, 7-5 over off a break of 7 days or more and 6-3 over at Etihad. The Eagles are 5-3 over interstate, 7-1 over in the day (19-4 over since the start of 2012) and 7-4 over off a break of 7 days or more (17-9 over since the start of 2012). 8 of the last 9 matches between these teams overall and all of the last 5 matches between these teams at Etihad have totalled 198 or more. A low-190s line at Etihad is quite generous.
The Swans have been vulnerable as significant favourites this season (3-6 ATS when favoured by 15.5 points or more, 5-2 ATS in all other scenarios), while the Tigers are 2-0 ATS this year as interstate underdogs and accounted for Fremantle last week after losing to the Dockers by a single point at Patersons in Round 5. The Swans have won 6 straight against the Tigers at the SCG, but 2 of the last 3 wins have come by less than 20 points, while Richmond have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches overall. 25 points start seems like a lot… until you remember how Sydney have burnt teams like Essendon and Collingwood, both of whom proved too much for the Tigers.
I’ll skip the line and instead bet the under. The Tigers are 4-0 under interstate this year (8-2 under since start of 2012), 3-0 under in twilight (5-2 under since 2012) 9-3 under off a break of 7 days or more. Over 2012/ 2013, the Swans are 12-7 over in the day but a combined 14-6 under in the twilight/ evening. 7 of the last 11 head-to-head matches overall, including 4 of 6 played at the SCG, have totalled less than 170.
GO
Port Adelaide keep on keeping on and their turn around is testament to Hinkley. They have solid performers week in week out but the real x factor is Westhoff. If he shows up to play they are a real force. The Lions have had a solid month as well and would be desperate to pinch this game too as they try and get to 10 wins for the year. The AAMI factor should be enough to get the Power across the line but on a sunny Sunday afternoon two attacking sides should make a meal of the 177.5.
I hate the Dogs West Coast game. Both sides are too unpredictable. I’d rather have me money on a three legged rocking horse.
The Swans v Richmond at the SCG is another matter. Again, two very attacking teams, on a small ground spells points for mine and a generous line of 177.5 should pose no issue.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Gold Coast +15.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on the Saturday Multi: GC +30.5 > North -29.5 > Pies -59.5 > Freo -4.5 > Cats -20.5 at $4.10 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide v Brisbane over 177.5 points at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Sydney v Richmond over 176.5 points at $1.91 (Bet365)
CB
1 unit on Gold Coast v Carlton under 179.5 points at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Adelaide +25.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide v Brisbane over 177.5 points at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Western Bulldogs v West Coast over 190.5 points at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Sydney v Richmond under 176.5 points at $1.91 (Bet365)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
