The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 19
Pending the outcome of ASADA investigations and any subsequent penalties, the race for eighth spot looks to be between Port Adelaide and Carlton, while there is a three-way battle for the last two spots in the top four between Sydney, Essendon and Fremantle. With four matches this week having an opening line of less than a goal, some exciting contests are in store. Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham assess Round 19.
CB
That was a horrific beat you copped last Sunday on the Swans-Tigers over 176.5 total points bet. They were more than halfway home only a handful of minutes into the second quarter. I had already marked my under bet in the same match as a loss. Yet somehow, they conspired to grind scoring almost to a halt and fall 3.5 points short of the magic mark. If the punting gods are watching, hopefully you’ll get a fortuitous ‘square up’ win this week.
GO
Another shocker and the time to catch up is running short. The Sydney Richmond game probably shows just how I've been travelling this year. I had that one pencilled in 5 minutes into the second quarter and as soon as I did they shut up shop. A week's a long time in footy as they say so we'll make it up this time around.
Results for Round 14 selections
GO – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 0.00 units
CB – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 5.73 units
Total – 9 selections, 9 units bet, return of 5.73 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 67 selections, 76 units bet, return of 63.52 units, -16% PoT
CB – 81 selections, 81 units bet, return of 88.14 units, 9% PoT
Total – 148 selections, 157 units bet, return of 151.66 units, -3% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
North Melbourne (+21.5 to +23.5, 205.5) v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm
GO
North do play well at Etihad but they've been up and down all year and it's tough to justify taking the start on that basis alone. The Cats are at the top of their game right now and their systematic demolition of the Saints last week was ominous. They have a few out through suspension and have a habit of resting players at the pointy end so they may be content just to get the points. I'm leaning towards the Cats on form alone but not with enough conviction to have a bet.
CB
I like the plus here. A few weeks back (in the Round 16 preview) I pulled up some stats which highlight how much better North are at Etihad than at any other ground. Indeed, the only 2 losses of their entire season which came by more than 16 points were interstate matches against Sydney and Fremantle. Their last 3 starts against Geelong at Etihad have resulted in a 14-point loss, 17-point win last year and heartbreaking 4-point loss in Round 2 of this year. A line of almost 4 goals is too big. Take the points.
Saturday
GWS (-1.5 to -2.5, 190.5) v Melbourne, Skoda Stadium, 1.45pm
Hawthorn (-27.5 to -28.5, 193.5 to 195.5) v Richmond, MCG, 2.10pm
West Coast (-14.5 to -15.5, 185.5 to 187.5) v Gold Coast, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
Brisbane (-28.5 to -29.5, 180.5 to 183.5) v St Kilda, Gabba, 7.40pm
Carlton (-2.5 to -3.5, 165.5 to 167.5) v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
This Saturday will be a big day for the Tigers, the Dockers and perhaps most of all, the Blues, Who do you like?
GO
Is it the game of the round? From an interest perspective you'd have to say so. The Dees were as poor as they've ever been last week setting all kinds of negative records. GWS on the other hand have been impressive without getting a win. Cameron must be All-Australian this year and his future seems brighter than any among the expansion players. It's the battlers’ Grand Final this week so it could really go either way so the Giants +19.5 at $1.30 for the first leg of the Saturday multi and either side under 15.5 is the play.
Richmond got hold of the Hawks in the corresponding game last year but it's hard to see that result repeating. Hawthorn were dominant last week after being challenged early and they put the Bombers to the sword. Franklin was red hot and fullbacks everywhere will be advised not to rile the great man. When he focuses his anger he is impossible to stop. The Tigers were impressive too in disposing of Freo and they are certainly as side on the up. they've got talent on every line but they are still shy of the Hawks. -6.5 at $1.30 is our second leg.
The Eagles are very disappointing and have the cue firmly in the rack. They owe their fans a home win though and should get it against the Suns. Gold Coast are super impressive but the trip west may be a bridge too far. You'll get a 6.5 start on the Eagles for $1.30 and thats good enough for me.
CB
Leave me out of the Giants-Dees clash on every conceivable level.
Last year, a low-to -mid-190s line for a Hawks’ day match would be cause to empty the wallet on the over. However, this year their record in such circumstances is 5-5, while the Tigers have sneakily put together a 14-3 under record for the season as a whole, including a 7-1 under run in the day and a 7-2 under streak at the MCG. I’ll skip it.
However, fear not over bettors, because we don’t have to wait too long to have a crack. The Eagles-Suns match starts at 2:40 Perth time and in day matches this season, the Eagles are 8-1 over and the Suns 5-0 over. The Eagles are 5-3 over at home; the Suns 5-2 over interstate. Last year’s match at Patersons totalled 216. The over can be bet here up to a low-190s line if need be.
GO
The Lions will win this in a canter as their season consolidates. The Saints are a basket case and not even the Saad fiasco will be enough to galvanise them. At the Gabba the Lions should put up a big number this week. They are superior across every line and as I'm happy to take the points given that Voss beeds to get the big wins when they're on offer. We'll take -17.5 for $1.50 our fourth leg in the multi as well.
Carlton could possibly snatch this one with Freo in a bit of a rut right now. Fremantle are undoubtedly the better side but they are just a step off the pace. That being said though, they are still finding ways to win with last week’s performance a Ross Lyon special – do just enough. This one will be close as well so the either under 15.5 is in play and Freo +19.5 at $1.35 is a moral.
CB
It doesn’t say much for the Saints that they’re getting almost 5 goals off a team who won’t be playing finals. I can’t lay that many points about the Lions either, even at home. What I will be doing though is betting the under. The Saints are 7-1 under at night and 8-4 under off a break of 7 days or more, while the Lions are coming off a 6-day break (which has a strong overall trend toward the under). In addition, 4 of the last 6 matches between these teams at the Gabba have totalled 165 or less.
The Blues have lost all 7 matches in 2013 against sides ranked 7th or higher on the ladder, but won 9 of 10 against sides ranked 8th or lower. The Dockers have a better record against those same criteria (2-4-1 against sides ranked 7th or higher; 10-0 against sides ranked 8th or lower) and more importantly, play their 11th game of the season against the latter of those two groups. Freo are also 4-0 ATS over 2012 and 2013 at Etihad since Ross Lyon took over. Call me crazy, but I don’t see why Carlton should start favourites against a top-7 side based on the stats above – back the purple haze straight out.
Sunday
Western Bulldogs (+42.5 to +44.5, 185.5 to 187.5) v Sydney, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm
Adelaide (+4.5 to +6.5, 173.5 to 180.5) v Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium, 3.15pm
Collingwood (-3.5 to -4.5, 182.5 to 185.5) v Essendon, MCG, 4.40pm
CB
Another match for lovers of the over kicks off our Sunday. These teams are a combined 11-7 over in the day, 15-10 over off a break of 7 days or more and 7-3 over at Etihad (admittedly, the Swans have yet to set foot on Etihad this season). The only recent match between these teams at Etihad came last year, with a total of 252.
On 2013 form alone, Port should be favoured by further over the Crows. But the “Showdown” is often a weird game – the last 8 matches have been split 4 apiece, and only one of those 8 matches had a final winning margin of 3 goals or less. With a few bets already in the back pocket for this week, I don’t feel a need to force a bet on the Power at the minus.
Part of me is really tempted to grab the points about Essendon – on their last two efforts it’s difficult to see how they jump as favourites here. But with the off-field sagas no doubt taking a toll and with no Jobe Watson to match it with the likes of Swan and Pendlebury, I’m going to let it slide.
GO
I'm not too keen on the early game. Sydney are a juggernaut but the Dogs have been super impressive in recent times. The line feels about right for me, particularly at Etihad where the Swans are not their best.
The showdown looks a real beauty. The Crows are desperately short of big men with Jenkins joining the injury list an Dangerfield is unlikely to get up for this one. They lack punch and polish which are non negotiables in these spiteful clashes. If the Power can grab a win, and I believe they will, they'll go a long way towards sewing up a finals spot. They have a real sense of self belief which they've earned through their defensive pressure. Hinkley plays it simply, do the basics well and it works. They'll win it well.
An extra layer of hate in this one with the drug scandal knocking on the Pies door. They'll be out to belt the Bombers this week. Essendon will be united after the Weapon revelations but how much is enough. Without Watson to lead from the front it is difficult to see who is going to drag them out of this hole. A fired up Collingwood is the last thing they need. There'll be fights in the crowd and melees a plenty but the Pies will prove too strong for the Bombers who must fall under the weight.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on GWS v Melbourne – either side by less than 15.5 points at $2.65 (various)
1 unit on Brisbane -28.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Fremantle v Carlton – either side by less than 15.5 points at $2.70 (Centrebet)
1 unit on GWS +19.5 > Hawthorn -6.5 > Eagles +6.5 > Lions -17.5 > Fremantle +19.5 at $4.45 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide -3.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Collingwood -3.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
CB
1 unit on North Melbourne +23.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on West Coast v Gold Coast over 185.5 total points at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Fremantle ML at $2.08 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Brisbane v St Kilda under 183.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Western Bulldogs v Sydney over 185.5 total points at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
