The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 20
Last week the Giants secured their first win of the season while the Tigers all but stamped their ticket to September for the first time since 2001. This week’s questions surround Carlton and Collingwood. Can the Blues keep the race for 8th spot interesting? And are the Magpies truly back as a premiership contender, or did they catch a Bombers side in free-fall? Greg Obserscheidt and Cliff Bingham assess Round 20.
CB
I’ve been poring over our results for 2013 and it becomes apparent fairly quickly that we should stick to our staple bets and not try to get too cute with selections each week. To wit:
CB (lines, outright win and total points): 79 units bet, 49-30 record, return of 93.12 units, 18% PoT
CB (everything else): 7 units bet, 1-6 record, return of 2.75 units, -61% PoT
GO (lines, outright win and total points): 67 units bet, 35-32 record, return of 66.74 units, -0.4% PoT
GO (everything else): 15 units bet, 1-14 record, return of 2.52 units, -83% PoT
Here endeth the lesson.
GO
That's pretty telling…Point taken, no more Saturday Multi's.
If I wasn't at the G on Saturday then there'd be plenty of furniture in sticks at Tony Harrison. The Hawks were woeful. Richmond were great but to trail the clearances 13 blot was an absolute disgrace.
Port won one of the best Showdowns in history and managed a last minute cover to boot. GWS got their win and the Demons disappointed even further if that's possible.
There are some ordinary games this week but with finals upon us and percentage becoming even more important will the big team go for broke? Methinks they will.
Results for Round 19 selections
GO – 6 selections, 6 units bet, return of 5.74 units
CB – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 7.73 units
Total – 11 selections, 11 units bet, return of 13.47 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 73 selections, 82 units bet, return of 69.26 units, -16% PoT
CB – 86 selections, 86 units bet, return of 95.87 units, 11% PoT
Total – 159 selections, 168 units bet, return of 165.13 units, -2% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
St Kilda (+55.5 to +56.5, 197.5 to 199.5) v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm
GO
Hawthorn need to show some starch after a dismal effort last week. They have St Kilda covered across every line and should really win this one by 15 goals. I doubt they'll rest any this week but their may be a few on the blocks with some youngsters in the wings waiting to show their wares. St Kilda try hard but they don't have the cattle to stop the Hawks through the middle and won't be able to stop the forwards banging on a big score. I'll play the minus here.
CB
Leave me out of betting on a line exceeding 9 goals. However, the under can be bet here. Teams off a 6-day break (as applies with both of these teams) are 56-30 (65%) under this year and 124-78 (61%) under since the start of 2012, compared to figures of 120-118 under and 272-264 over respectively for teams coming off a break of 7 days or more.
Saturday
Richmond (-32.5 to -33.5, 181.5 to 185.5) v Brisbane, MCG, 1.45pm
Geelong (-38.5 to -40.5, 180.5 to 185.5) v Port Adelaide, Simonds Stadium, 2.10pm
Carlton (-19.5 to -20.5, 195.5 to 197.5) v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Gold Coast (-36.5 to -37.5, 183.5 to 185.5) v Melbourne, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm
Sydney (-15.5, 176.5 to 177.5) v Collingwood, ANZ Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
There are some big lines early in the day, but a strong match to close out the suite of Saturday fixtures. Who do you like?
GO
I won’t take a multi but to prove Murphy right it would have been: Rich – 12.5 > Geelong – 14.5 > Western Bulldogs + 45.5 > Gold Coast – 13.5 > Sydney + 2.5 @ $4.10.
The Tigers are playing great footy at the minute and are really driven to give their fans a big September, their first in over a decade. They are tough and hard and have plenty of skill and now that they have a big scalp they'll have belief. That said the Lions are playing some good footy too. Their young guns are firing but without Brown they lack leadership on the field. If the going gets tough, away from home, they'll battle.
The Cats are flying but given the performance of the Power this year you'd be a brave man to rule them out altogether. The plus is the instinctive play but after the emotion of last week the thought of a lapse is enough for me to leave this one alone.
Carlton are giving a sizable start but it's hard to see why. The Dogs have played as good as anyone outside the eight in the last month without reward. Their performance last week against the Swans was phenomenal and they won plenty of fans. Malthouse will swing the axe this week labelling his squad diabolical so some fresh blood might get them up and about but the Dogs at the plus is the play for mine.
CB
The opening lines and totals for the first 2 matches are almost identical to the figures I came up with, so there is little to get excited about in terms of a bet there.
I’ve got a slight lean to the over in the Blues-Dogs match on the back of trends at Etihad for the Bulldogs this season, but it’s not strong enough to tempt a bet.
GO
Gold Coast are a tough beat at Metricon and now with Bock adding more potency to their forward line alone side Dixon they can trouble defences. Melbourne’s biggest battle this year has been winning the nut in the middle of the ground, an area where the Suns have no trouble at all with Ablett, O'Meara, Bennell and co racking up the numbers. The Suns will win by 10 goals here.
The Swans Pies is a tough one. It all depends which Collingwood shows up. If it's the entitled, disinterested, lazy mob that have been about often enough this year then the Swans will win by plenty. If it's the side that played last week and amazed with their pressure and swift transition then they can beat the Swans and keep their top four hopes alive. Too much doubt for me.
CB
The Suns hit unfamiliar territory a 6-goal favourites. Putting a line through their results this year against the Saints, Dees, Bulldogs and Giants suggests that the number might be a little low. However, I don’t like laying 6 goals about a team who are 6-12 themselves, so I will pass.
Since the Swans belted Collingwood by 44 points in Round 9, the Magpies have only played 2 top-8 sides: Port (who flogged them by 6 goals) and Essendon (who have been wobbling badly for at least a month now and may be on the brink of another late-season slump). The 11-match winning streak the Pies put together prior to last year’s finals series (where the Swans should have won by more than 26 points) disguises the current gap between these teams. I’m grabbing the Swans at the minus. In addition, both teams arrive here off a 6-day break (56-30 under this season) and 6 of their last 7 head-to-head matches have totalled less than 168, so I will also be backing the under.
Sunday
Essendon (-19.5 to -20.5, 195.5 to 197.5) v West Coast, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm
Adelaide (+3.5, 180.5 to 185.5) v North Melbourne, AAMI Stadium, 3.15pm
Fremantle (-73.5 to -74.5, 168.5 to 170.5) v GWS Giants, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
Essendon’s last 4 efforts: 2 unsatisfying wins over the Bulldogs and Giants; 2 pummelling at the hands of Hawthorn and Collingwood. The signs for a third straight late-season slump are ominous. I’m staying away from this match.
North are 1-5 ATS interstate (0-3 as favourites) this year and 4-11 ATS interstate (1-6 as favourites) since the start of 2012. They’ve lost to the 8-10 Eagles, 8-10 Lions and 6-12 Suns on the road this year and now face the 7-11 Crows on the same terms. These teams haven’t played at AAMI since 2009, but the Crows have won the last 4 straight against the Kangaroos at the venue. I’m grabbing the points.
A 12-goal line doesn’t interest me at all, though I still feel like a proud parent for (a) buying “Fremantle top-4” stock preseason and telling Karl Langdon on 6PR radio that I was confident the Dockers would finish above the Eagles. If we could just swap our Punters Guide predictions for Carlton (3rd) and Geelong (9th) around, we’d be in good shape.
GO
I'll happily walk away from the Dons Eagles game given the exposed form. West Coast have forgotten how to win at home and the Bombers look frail under the weight of ASADA and public scrutiny. I'd not be surprised the see the Eagles win this one but I can't justify a bet.
I'd have thought the Kangas may have been shorter this week but their interstate form hasn't been great. However, AAMI aside North did beat the Cats last week and the Crows aren't playing great footy. I've done a bit of loot on North this year and it's time for them to ante up. It's proven risky trusting them to show up two weeks in a row but they played too well last week so I'll give them a nudge.
Fremantle are another side that need percentage and GWS present a great opportunity for them but given their run home Lyon may take this opportunity to rest a few and back his lads to get the boost in the last two rounds. I'm tempted to take the minus but 12 goals is just a bit too much of a stretch.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Hawthorn -55.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Richmond -32.5 at $1.88 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on Western Bulldogs +20.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on North Melbourne -3.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
1 unit on St Kilda v Hawthorn under 199.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Sydney -15.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Sydney v Collingwood under 181.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Adelaide +3.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
