The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 22
Round 22 of the AFL season is unquestionably headlined by the match between Geelong and Sydney. The Cats are all but unbeatable at Simonds Stadium in recent years, but the Swans did inflict one of the very rare losses in 2011 – can history repeat itself? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham examine this match and the remainder of the weekend’s fixtures.
CB
We’re back, Mortimer! Back in profit for 2013 overall and on some quick calculations, we’re both individually running a profit since this column started in 2011. Nothing earth shattering mind you (around a combined 8 units of profit on 527 units outlaid), but profits are profits, dammit!
GO
Big week for the boys!!! You're smoking it this year old mate. The Tigers continue to struggle under my weight but I'll cop that. Freo are building their percentage chasing a top two berth for the first time in their history and the gap widens between the best and the rest. This week shapes as the defining round for the top 8 and especially the top 4. It's gonna be a cracker!!!
Results for Round 21 selections
GO – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 7.66 units
CB – 6 selections, 6 units bet, return of 11.42 units
Total – 11 selections, 11 units bet, return of 19.08 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 82 selections, 91 units bet, return of 78.83 units, -13% PoT
CB – 96 selections, 96 units bet, return of 113.03 units, 18% PoT
Total – 178 selections, 187 units bet, return of 191.86 units, 3% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Collingwood (-34.5 to -35.5, 178.5) v West Coast, MCG, 7.50pm
GO
The Pies will certainly get the choccies on Friday night but is six goals too much start? Boom kid Brodie Grundy faces his biggest test against Dean Cox, the premier ruckman of the professional era. If Grundy can give quality service to Swan, Pendlebury and Beams then the margin could get ugly. There's not enough fat in this line to take it on for mine.
CB
I looked at this line and initially thought it might be a bit high. Then I remembered that, abstracting from a win over the free-falling Bombers, West Coast haven’t beaten a top-8 side all year and been comprehensively pantsed by a number of them. No bet.
Saturday
Adelaide (-62.5 to -64.5, 181.5 to 182.5) v Melbourne, AAMI Stadium, 1.45pm
North Melbourne (+18.5 to +19.5, 203.5 to 205.5) v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium, 1.45pm
Geelong (-12.5 to -13.5, 180.5 to 185.5) v Sydney, Simonds Stadium, 4.40pm
Fremantle (-31.5 to -33.5, 163.5 to 165.5) v Port Adelaide, Patersons Stadium, 7.40pm
Carlton (-16.5 to -18.5, 188.5 to 195.5) v Essendon, MCG, 7.40pm
GO
Melbourne continue to try hard but with the injuries they have, unfortunately they just aren't good enough to compete for long enough. Adelaide got a massive cook from their coach last week and they'll be out to repay their fans this week. I'm expecting this one to get large at AAMI and whilst 10 goals is a big start any day of the week, it won’t be enough here.
North held the flag favourites to 3 points first time around and their form at Etihad warrants a look at the points. Hawthorn don't play as well in confined spaces which is surprising enough given their possession retention game. Both sides like to hang onto the nut and move it with pace. It'll be a great game with the points the smart play but I won’t be betting into the Hawks at this time of year.
The winner at KP will go a long way towards sewing up a top 2 spot and a home final. This will be an absolute corker. The midfield battle in itself is mouth-watering. Selwood is in career best form and that is saying something. Johnson is a clearance specialist and Bartel steers the ship from behind the ball. The Swans run deep and Tippet gives them a bail out option in the square. He’s the leading goal kicker in the league for the period he’s been eligible to play so they are using him but with Lonergan and Taylor down back he might struggle a bit this week. The home ground advantage is enough for me to tip the Cats here.
CB
I can’t get even remotely enthused about the first game.
North are 8-4 ATS at Etihad this year and 4-1 as underdogs in Victoria. The Hawks are 1-3 ATS at Etihad this year and only beat North by 3 points at the MCG earlier this season. The Hawks have won 6 of their last 8 against North, but only 2 of those wins have come by 18 points or more. On overall form, you couldn’t have the Kangaroos but at Etihad and given the recent history, this line seems at least one goal too big. Moreover, I made a big song and dance last week about betting North at Etihad and laying them in every other match – best heed my own advice and back the plus.
At a neutral venue, I’d be thinking long and hard about the Swans at the plus. However, the Cats have won 47 of their last 49 matches at Simonds (going back to 2007), including 45 wins by 18 points or more. Against the Swans at the venue, they’ve won 6 of their last 7 at the Cattery, including 5 wins by 27 points or more. I’d feel like an idiot afterwards if I went against that trend or even ignored it (side note: really wish I’d done this piece of research before backing the Dockers at the small plus in Round 14). Shame on me if you fool me twice – Cats at the minus.
GO
Port need a win to sew up eighth. They'll throw everything at the Dockers but I can't see it being good enough to get the win. I can see it being good enough to cover though. The Dockers have proven over a long period that they are content to get the job done without piling on. No Ballantyne for me is a big card out of the deck. His vibrance is a driving force for the Dockers and he'll be sorely missed – Port at the plus for mine.
As I sit here I'm overwhelmed by the press regarding the Bombers and the ASADA investigation. The shit just keeps getting deeper and the Bombers are drowning. They have shown for a month they are in free fall and given the pressure on the coaching group it's hard to see where the players are getting the direction they need. They can't possibly be spending enough time with Hird and Thompson to get the required leadership. Carlton is playing for a shot in the finals and with that in their mind it's tough to see the Bombers covering.
CB
The Dockers can be vulnerable off a 6-day break, where they are 1-4 ATS this season. They beat the Power by 40 points at Patersons last year and while both sides have improved in 2013, the Power has made the bigger leap. I’ll be grabbing the points here.
I won’t comment on the Blues-Bombers match other than to note that at some point during the game, I’ll probably need a hug from someone.
Sunday
St Kilda (-2.5 to -3.5, 186.5) v Gold Coast, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm
GWS (+61.5 to +62.5, 198.5 to 200.5) v Richmond, Skoda Stadium, 3.15pm
Brisbane (-10.5 to -12.5, 190.5) v Western Bulldogs, Gabba, 4.40pm
CB
St Kilda is 3-17, while the Suns’ only interstate wins this season have been against the Giants and Demons. I’ll pass.
Giants-Tigers and the accompanying 11-goal line does not interest me in the slightest.
I love the under in the final match. The last 9 matches (including 4 at the Gabba) between these teams have all totalled less than 190. The Lions have totalled 190 or less in 15 out of 20 matches this season, while the Bulldogs have totalled 170 or less in 4 out of 5 interstate matches. Throw in the fact that twilight and night matches continue to skew significantly to the under and I’m quite keen on the under.
GO
St Kilda try their best but like Melbourne just don't have the cattle. The midfield especially is skinny and that is certainly the strength of the Gold Coast Suns. Bluey will have the boys up and about for what could be their last real chance at a win for 2013. Gold Coast are heading north and the Saints are heading south. That's enough for me.
Richmond are playing for a home final this week. A win will firmly entrench them in the 5-6 bracket and they will need that in September. A win they'll get, nothing surer but will it be a mauling. They would have been disappointed in their effort last week. They were belted by a Blues outfit that had stink all over it. The minus is the play but they may take this opportunity to rest a few bodies before finals. I'll re-assess once teams are out.
The Dogs have been bringing the loot the last few starts and there is plenty to like about them. Whether they can get the job done on the road against a similarly placed and equally youthful team is another questions. You’ve got to love them but I can’t trust them on the road.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Adelaide -62.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Geelong -12.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide +33.5 at $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)
1 unit on Carlton -16.5 at $1.86 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on Gold Coast +3.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
1 unit on North Melbourne +19.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Geelong -12.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide +33.5 at $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)
1 unit on Brisbane v Western Bulldogs under 190.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
