The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 23
The “eight” was notionally set, but with Essendon having been shown the exit door by the AFL, an otherwise mundane race for ninth position now carries high stakes with it. Who will fall derriere backwards into September? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham assess the possibilities.
CB
One last roll of the nine-matches-per-week dice before we hit the finals series – big time footy is almost here!
GO
Started all guns blazing then got stung on Sunday. Painful stuff. Fremantle were dominant which only further highlights the gap between the top four and the rest. Plenty on the line this week for 9-12 with all teams a realistic chance of playing finals now that the Bombers have been removed from contention. I, like everyone, am glad this has been sorted however I find it hard to believe the book has been closed altogether on this matter.
Results for Round 22 selections
GO – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 3.83 units
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 3.83 units
Total – 9 selections, 9 units bet, return of 7.66 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 87 selections, 96 units bet, return of 82.66 units, -14% PoT
CB – 100 selections, 100 units bet, return of 116.86 units, 17% PoT
Total – 187 selections, 196 units bet, return of 199.52 units, 2% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Sydney (+12.5 to +13.5, 186.5) v Hawthorn, ANZ Stadium, 7.50pm
GO
Sydney are struggling with injuries to key players at the moment. The innocuous nature of Rhyce Shaw’s injury adding insult. In stark contrast to this time last year they are battling for continuity but they do bat deep so they’ll remain competitive and give themselves every chance. The Hawks on the other hand are close to fully fit and are playing some great footy at the moment. They should have a good win at ANZ. The SCG may have been a different story but on the larger ANZ I’m happy to take the minus.
CB
The head-to-head history is really interesting here. The Hawks have won the last 3 matches these teams have played at night (including a 37-point win in Round 7), whilst the Swans have won the last 2 played in the day (including last year’s Grand Final). At the SCG I’d have been happy to grab the points, but on the wider expanses at Homebush a pass may be the play.
Saturday
St Kilda (+22.5 to +26.5, 174.5) v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium, 1.45pm
Geelong (-53.5 to -56.5, 185.5) v Brisbane, Simonds Stadium, 1.45pm
Port Adelaide (-3.5, 184.5) v Carlton, AAMI Stadium, 4.40pm
West Coast (-2.5, 176.5) v Adelaide, Patersons Stadium, 7.40pm
Essendon (+27.5 to +28.5, 185.5) v Richmond, MCG, 7.40pm
GO
Fremantle have been belting all comers in recent times and the line at first glance looks to be too short for me. The Saints will have plenty of reason to put in a big performance though with Milne, Kossie and Blake all hanging up the boots. The last stand of this trio should be enough for the rest of their group to summon up a big one and with that in mind I’ll sit this one out.
Brisbane are now playing for a finals berth, but it’s a tall order. They’ll need a win and unfortunately I can’t see a repeat of their Gabba heroics from earlier this year. Geelong haven’t put many sides to the sword this year but in the tune up for finals you’d think they will leave no stone unturned. I have a slight lean towards the points in this one but with no Brown and no Merrett it’s hard to see the Lions kicking a score.
Carlton only need a win to secure an unlikely ticket to September but that being said, they only needed a win last week and they choked. 9-22 certainly hurts the chances on covering the line. If they were the side we all thought them to be they would have won that game by 70 points. Muppets. Port will be reeling after a big loss last week and will want to give their fans some real hope moving into the finals. Port will win this one on the back of Boak and Wingard.
CB
Freo have won their last 3 matches by an average of 94 points, including a demolition of the Power in the first half last week – Ross Lyon did everything short of dressing up Hayden Ballantyne in Cobra Kai gear and making him sweep Chad Wingard’s leg. St Kilda aren’t anywhere near the calibre of the Power. Back the minus.
My stat about huge wins for the Cats at Kardinia Park doesn’t work as well when the match line is set at nine goals, so I will sit the next one out.
In an ordinary week, Port at the minus would be appealing. However, with their finals spot locked down they may rest a few key players, while the Blues are still in the desperate race for ninth. No bet.
GO
West Coast and Adelaide both need a win to give themselves a chance at finals so on the strength of that alone it should be a cracking game. The problem is that West Coast put the cue in the rack 4 weeks ago and have some big names already wrapped in cotton wool for the year. Their record at home hasn’t been great, in fact it’s been very ordinary this year but needing a win you’d think they can get it done.
I’m not expecting to have to write up too many dead rubbers in the future but it’s impossible to know what effect the weeks preceding will have had on the Bombers players. We can’t get involved in this one.
CB
The Eagles have been terrible at home (2-7 ATS) and the Crows strong on the road (9-4 ATS) this year, which points to backing the Crows here. However, the recent head-to-head record skews pretty strongly to the Eagles. In any event, I’d much rather bet on the over. Both teams have a trend that way (especially the Eagles at home and Crows away), both have totalled 180+ in more than half of their matches this year and 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches at Patersons have totalled more than 190. A mid-170s line makes for an appealing over bet.
I still don’t want to talk about the Bombers’ saga.
Sunday
Gold Coast (-39.5 to -40.5, 200.5) v GWS, Metricon Stadium, 1.10pm
Collingwood (-10.5 to -11.5, 188.5) v North Melbourne, MCG, 3.15pm
Western Bulldogs (-39.5 to -40.5, 193.5) v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
No interest in the first game for me.
Two weeks I ago I made a big song and dance about betting North at Etihad and laying them at other venues. Well, the last 4 matches between these teams at the MCG have seen 4 wins to the Pies – 3 of them by more than 10 goals. That’s good enough to push me into the minus.
I was slightly tempted by the Bulldogs at the minus, but the far more enticing bet is the over. The Bulldogs are 10-3 over at Etihad this year, while 5 of the last 6 matches between the teams at this venue have totalled 190 or more (4 have totalled 216 or more).
GO
Both teams are running on steam. You’d expect the Suns to win pretty easy but there’s no way I’ll be betting this game.
North are another side that can possibly jump into the finals if they can get a win this week. They were impressive against the Hawks and should be right in the mix this week. Collingwood have been in great form as well with their big names finding plenty of it. Normally I wouldn’t get too enthusiastic about the Roos away from Etihad and unfortunately they’ll know whether or not they can play in September by the time they take the field on Sunday so that could have a big impact on their output. With that in mind I have to leave it alone.
Melbourne can’t wait for the season to be over but for mine they’ll have a bit more heartache to endure before the final bell. The Dogs are giving their fans plenty of encouragement for 2014 and with a big win this week they’ll finish the season with 5 consecutive covers. There’s no reason to jump off them now.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Hawthorn -12.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide -3.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on West Coast -2.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Western Bulldogs -39.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
CB
1 unit on Fremantle -22.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on West Coast v Adelaide over 176.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Collingwood -10.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Western Bulldogs v Melbourne over 193.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet365)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
