The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 3

We may only be two rounds into the season, but one club (Melbourne) is already in turmoil, one club (Port Adelaide) who had a tumultuous 2012 is already eyeing off the future in a much more positive light and two preseason premiership fancies (Carlton and West Coast) sit at 0-2 and with a crucial next month ahead of them. With an intriguing slate of Round 3 matches lying in wait, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham give us their verdicts on the weekend ahead.

CB

Another week with another couple of narrow bet losses (Richmond -18.5, either side by less than 15.5 in Brisbane-Adelaide game) makes for a sluggish start to the year. Nonetheless, fortunes on these things almost inevitably even out in the longer term, so I’m not worried – at least not yet. 

GO

I’ll have to go back through the books and find out how much money Richmond have cost me in the last 3 years. My feeling is that it’s plenty. They shouldn’t be trusted but for some reason we keep jumping on.

Results for Round 2 selections

GO – 3 selections, 4 units bet, return of 5.75 units

CB – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 3.83 units

Total – 8 selections, 9 units bet, return of 9.58 units

 

Results for 2013 selections

GO – 6 selections, 7 units bet, return of 7.60 units, 9% PoT

CB – 10 selections, 10 units bet, return of 5.75 units, -43% PoT

Total – 16 selections, 17 units bet, return of 13.35 units, -21% PoT

 

(Please note – all times are EST)

Friday

Fremantle (-11.5 to -12.5) v Essendon, Patersons Stadium, 8.40pm

GO

This shapes as an acid test for both clubs. Essendon have been red hot so far against some pretty ordinary opposition. Fremantle have been impressive but again, have only beaten a depleted Eagles unit and the Dogs who no one is expecting great things from..

CB

Agree that it’s not an easy match to get a good gauge on, although to be honest I’m just excited that the Dons are up and about early in the season after a difficult summer. I think there is a bet here though – both teams had a strong lean to the under in night games last year, while Freo were also a very strong under team at home. While I’m no fan of Bet365, they have put up a nice high line here and the under can be backed (or at least noted for posterity until a more reputable bookie puts up a comparable line).

GO

Mate, the Dons love being up and about early. I agree that it could be low scoring and if that’s the case then having a nibble at either side under 15.5 could represent some value. I think I’ll probably just sit back and enjoy this one though.

Saturday

North Melbourne (+9.5 to +11.5) v Sydney, Blundstone Arena, 1.45pm

Melbourne (+58.5 to +59.5) v West Coast, MCG, 2.10pm

GWS (+24.5 to +25.5) v St Kilda, Manuka Oval, 2.10pm

Gold Coast (+15.5 to +16.5) v Brisbane, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm

Geelong (-10.5 to -11.5) v Carlton, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm

CB

A couple of quality games interspersed with some (likely) rubbish on Saturday. Who do you like?

GO

North shape as a fair crack against the Swans who’ve been easing themselves into the competition. They’ll be hungry after their capitulation last week. The Eagles should smack the Demons up. They need a big win after dropping the first two and given the projected log jam at the top percentage will be important. The Giants play well at Manuka and they can salute against the Saints who are in for a long year. Stay away from the Q clash, both sides are too unpredictable.

CB

I’m going the other way on North – to give up a 41-point lead at a ground (Etihad) which is clearly their favourite to play on could take some recovering from. Meanwhile, the Swans have kept plenty of petrol in the tank for their first major test of 2013. Given Sydney’s excellent record, both in the day and as interstate favourites, I’ll lay the points in that game for a unit.

I’m tempted to back the Giants based purely on how poor St Kilda are away from Etihad, but entrusting your money to a club who has only won two matches in its existence is fraught with peril. Leave me out of taking a side in either the Demons-Eagles clash or the Q-clash. In the latter clash the trends point to the under – both sides skewed that way in Queensland matches last year, while the Suns went 6-0 under at night. However, a low 170s line doesn’t offer much margin for error, so I’ll sit it out.

GO

Head to head for the first time this year! I think the Roos will bounce back. GWS are morals to cover against the Saints. They’ll be tounging for a win after some solid performances. I’m going to take on the Demons again given it’s hard to see where their lift will come from. The Cats should take care of the Blues but Etihad (with the roof shut) gives me enough pause to let it slide.

CB

I was right on the cusp of backing the Cats, given how poor the Blues have been at Etihad in recent times, but the desperation of Carlton’s current 0-2 position is just enough to talk me out of it.

Sunday

Richmond (-23.5 to -24.5) v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm

Collingwood (+6.5 to +7.5) v Hawthorn, MCG, 3.15pm

Port Adelaide (+12.5 to +13.5) v Adelaide, AAMI Stadium, 4.40pm

CB

One likely belter of a contest teamed up with two matches where a lowly 2012 side looks to be on the up-and-up. Are we taking the upstarts with the points here, or going with the more proven commodities?

GO

I think this could be a danger game for the Tigers. They’ve had two good wins but I’m still not sold on their ability to put sides away. Four goals is plenty of start but given my track record in Richmond games I think I’ll stay off this one. Pies Hawks will be a cracker with both teams coming off massive wins last week. Ins and outs will have a bearing here with Jolly under a cloud and Beams unlikely to get up. If Lake gets a game for the Hawks he could do a job on Cloke and free up Gibson to play third man. Hawthorn have had the wood in recent times, particularly in the Home and Away season and should get the job done. I don’t bet on showdowns because form means fuck all in these games. I’m tipping a Power victory though.

CB

Agree on Richmond – the risk of the Tigers doing just enough to get by but not enough to cover is immense. I never jump the right way (either tipping or betting) in the Showdown clashes, so will stay right out of the fray there. I love the Pies-Hawks game from a few angles though.

First, there’s the three head-to-head wins (by margins of between 22 and 47 points) last year that you alluded to. Second, there’s a contrast in styles. The Hawks struggle against the most defensively accountable teams (went a combined 2-5 against Geelong, Sydney and West Coast last year… and 17-1 against everyone else). The Magpies struggle against teams who can burn them with skill (a combined 0-5 against Hawthorn and less injury-plagued Carlton last year… and 17-3 against everyone else). And finally, the total points in the three matches last year were 252, 229 and 232 points. I love both the Hawks at the minus and the over 195.5.

Recommended bet summary

GO

1 unit on North Melbourne + 11.5 at $1.90 (Flemington Sportsbet)

1 unit on West Coast -58.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)

1 unit on GWS +25.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)

1 unit on Hawthorn -6.5 at $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)

CB

1 unit on Fremantle v Essendon under 185.5 total points at $1.90 (Bet 365)

1 unit on Sydney -9.5 at $1.90 (TAB Sportsbet)

1 unit on Hawthorn -6.5 at $1.91 (Flemington Sportsbet)

1 unit on Collingwood v Hawthorn over 197.5 total points at $1.90 (Bet 365)

 

Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo