The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 6
After a long weekend with a number of tense finishes to matches, the sixth round of the 2013 season is predicted to provide more lopsided outcomes. Can any of the underdogs put up a major fight, or will it be a week to follow all of the favourites home? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham return to preview the upcoming round.
CB
Hmmm…. only four games with a line of less than 30 points and no games with a line of less than 15 points. Expect plenty of punters to throw together multis with a number of the favoured teams included. Mind you, it only takes one plucky underdog to upset that applecart…
GO
Coming off an 0-9 run a bloke should probably be a bit tentative this week but you can’t afford to be a pussy in this game. Straight back on the horse and searching for some value. Look out!
Results for Round 5 selections
GO – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 0.00 units
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 4.66 units
Total – 9 selections, 9 units bet, return of 4.66 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 18 selections, 20 units bet, return of 11.42 units, -43% PoT
CB – 24 selections, 24 units bet, return of 19.89 units, -17% PoT
Total – 42 selections, 44 units bet, return of 31.31 units, -29% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Collingwood (-31.5) v St Kilda, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm
GO
The Pies were pretty ordinary on ANZAC Day. They looked slow through the middle and with Cloke getting paddled they really struggled to hit the scoreboard. Toovey going down is a massive blow considering Maxwell is still out. Harry will be forced to play back now and he can be exposed. The Saints were solid in NZ and pushed the Swans to the brink. Collingwood should get the job done but I’d be amazed if they win by 5 goals.
CB
I can just about talk myself into the Saints at the big plus. They are a much better side at Etihad than elsewhere, and while they are 1-4 overall, their losing margins against strong sides (17 points v Richmond, 37 v Essendon and 16 v Sydney) have been quite respectable. The Magpies have a mounting injury list and while I think they should still win this game, more than five goals is a huge start to be giving – the points look very enticing.
Saturday
Essendon (-85.5) v GWS, Etihad Stadium, 1.45pm
North Melbourne (+15.5 to +19.5) v Port Adelaide, Blundstone Arena, 2.10pm
Adelaide (+23.5 to +25.5) v Hawthorn, AAMI Stadium, 4.40pm
Gold Coast (+16.5 to +19.5) v Fremantle, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm
Richmond (+17.5 to +18.5) v Geelong, MCG, 7.40pm
CB
Four of the most competitive matches of the weekend are slated for Saturday. Who do you like?
GO
The Bombers are flying at the minute but I’m not sure taking on a 14 goal start is the right play just now. The Crows will struggle to score without Walker who’s knee injury was probably the biggest story out of the weekend. The Crows have been a bit flat in the contested ball recently and that isn’t their go. They must improve in that area but without a solid forward target the Hawks can really burn them in transition. They’ll pile them on at AAMI.
CB
Leave me out of 80-odd point starts, under pretty much any circumstance. The team that I can back here are the Power at the plus. While their draw to date has been much softer than North’s, they are playing with great confidence, while the Kangaroos have a dubious recent ATS record as favourites, in the day and when playing interstate. On face value the Hawks at the minus is also appealing, but they have a poor overall record at AAMI Stadium and have only beaten the Crows once in the last five meetings at the venue – I’ll sit this one out.
GO
Gold Coast have been impressive to date and always seem to find another leg at home. That said, three goals isn’t much when we’re talking a likely top four side against a likely bottom four side. The only reason to stay off the minus is the fact that without Pavlich and now Bradley, the Dockers may struggle to put up a score and Lyon may be content to walk away with four points. Tigers v Cats is the game of the round for mine. Two exciting teams who shift the ball with purpose and pace. Both with strong midfields and established forwards. Weather permitting the score could be a big one here so the over 195.5 is the play.
CB
Agree that this is a potential trap game for anyone taking the Dockers at the minus – I’d rather lay six goals at Patersons for such a matchup than three goals at Metricon. As is almost always the case with games involving Ross Lyon though, the under is worth consideration, though a line in the 170s doesn’t leave much wiggle room. Agree that Geelong v Richmond should be a cracker of a game to watch, but try as I might, I can’t find an appealing bet in it.
Sunday
Sydney (-41.5) v Brisbane, SCG, 1.10pm
Carlton (-55.5 to -57.5) v Melbourne, MCG, 3.15pm
West Coast (-45.5 to -47.5) v Western Bulldogs, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
Last year the Swans were an excellent bet at home, or as favourite, or in the daytime, or off a seven-day or longer break between games. They hit all four of those criteria here – against a Lions’ team who have lost their two 2013 interstate matches to date by over 10 goals, I’m happy to lay the points in that game. Leave me out of the final two games of the week though – teams with losing records in 2013 thus far who are laying 40-60 points aren’t exactly my favourite option to bet.
GO
I’ll follow you here with the Swans. Brisbane’s form has improved slightly but they are a long way off Sydney and should get towelled up. Carlton will do a number on Melbourne but the 10 goal start is a bit too much for me to have a lash. West Coast beat the Dogs by 20 goals in the corresponding match last year and will be desperate to show their fans something after last week’s capitulation. That in mind it’s a bit rich to take on 8 goals when the same lads blew a seven goal lead in 40 minutes last week.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on St Kilda +31.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet, Flemington Sportsbet)
1 unit on Hawthorn -23.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Sydney -41.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
1 unit on St Kilda +31.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet, Flemington Sportsbet))
1 unit on Port Adelaide +18.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet, Flemington Sportsbet))
1 unit on Sydney -41.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
