The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 9
The Cats’ unbeaten streak ended and we had our first draw of 2013 – Round 8 of the season certainly provided a couple of, to borrow a well-worn cliché, turn-ups for the books. Round 9 sees a significant number of teams go into matches as strong favourites – can the underdogs mount a legitimate challenge? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham assess the weekend ahead.
CB
How good is Matty Kreuzer? What an outstanding after-the-siren point to make the final Blues-Power margin exactly three goals and thus allow both Carlton -17.5 and Port Adelaide +19.5 to cover. I can’t speak highly enough of that point.
GO
I’m pretty sure that’s our first ‘middle’ since we started this caper. Grins all around. On a slightly more sombre note, Collingwood decided to have a dip on the one occasion I’ve bet into them. They certainly breed hatred in the black and white. And have we witnessed the beginning of the annual Bomber bed-shitting. Nathan Lovett-Murray certainly believes so and has gone to the extraordinary lengths of having Andrew Lovett stab him in the arm so as not to risk getting a call up to the seniors.
Results for Round 8 selections
GO – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 3.82 units
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 3.82 units
Total – 8 selections, 8 units bet, return of 7.64 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 29 selections, 32 units bet, return of 20.98 units, -34% PoT
CB – 36 selections, 36 units bet, return of 37.10 units, 3% PoT
Total – 65 selections, 68 units bet, return of 58.08 units, -15% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Collingwood (-7.5) v Sydney, MCG, 7.50pm
GO
The Pies were back to their best against the red hot Cats last week and if they can maintain that intensity forward of centre then they could roll the Swans this week. You’d imagine Sydney have had a big week on the track after blowing a 27 point lead with 15 minutes on the clock against a Dockers side who’d only managed 5 goals to that point. They’d be busting to get that one back but as you always say, at the MCG and at night they can battle.
CB
A real trap game at the line to my mind – the Pies have a very poor recent record as home favourites, while the Swans have struggled at night and at the MCG.
The value here lies with the under. Over 2012/13, Collingwood are 15-4 under at night and 14-6 under as home favourites, while Sydney are 9-3 under at night and 4-4 as interstate underdogs. Moreover, five of the last six matches head to head have totalled 167 or less.
Saturday
Port Adelaide (+30.5 to +31.5) v Geelong, AAMI Stadium, 1.45pm
GWS (+70.5) v West Coast, Skoda Stadium, 2.10pm
St Kilda (-28.5) v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Brisbane (+14.5 to +15.5) v Carlton, Gabba, 7.40pm
Richmond (+4.5) v Essendon, MCG, 7.40pm
CB
We’ve got a couple of ordinary matches in the afternoon/ twilight, but two particularly intriguing ones in the evening. Who do you like?
GO
The forward pressure from the Magpies last week stunted the Cats high intensity and high possession game style. I’m not convinced that the Power have the cattle to emulate this feat, even at their home ground. With a number of key players down on form for Port I think they’ll struggle. The Cats by 8 goals plus for me.
It’s still early days but with the ladder starting to take shape it is already clear that percentage is going to make the difference for a lot of teams. The Eagles had a slow start and must take advantage of their games against the expansion sides so they’ll try and put a real big number on the Giants this week.
We picked the Dogs to struggle this year and they certainly have done that. St Kilda poses an opportunity for the Dogs and with the heat surrounding them during the week you would hope the likes of Boyd, Griffen, Murphy, Cooney and Cross could lead the way for the pups and be really competitive. Reiwoldt’s form is a worry for anyone looking at the points this week but the Saints’ lack of options through the midfield should be enough for the Dogs to be in the contest.
CB
The Power are sliding and have a poor recent ATS record at home, while the Cats haven't exactly been a cash cow when they've been favoured on the road. No bet for mine.
The Eagles are 3-6 ATS as interstate favourites over 2012/13, but I don’t trust the Giants in the slightest, even with almost 12 goals start.
St Kilda are a far better side at Etihad (10-5 ATS since start of 2012, compared to 6-9 at all other venues). However, if you subtract their win against GWS, their average points scored per match in 2013 sits at a paltry 73. Also, the total points line for this match (178.5) is unnervingly low for a game at Etihad. I’ll pass.
GO
I was all over the Lions at first glance given their recent form and their record at the Gabba. Zorko is playing amazing football and with Moloney hitting his straps, Redden and Rockliff are able to spend some extra time forward of centre and they can be dangerous. Merrett out is a massive loss for the Lions but with McGuire returning and the Blues lack of a dominant tall forward they should be able to make do.
I don’t have a great track record with the dreamtime games but with the build up at Windy Hill this week and the Bombers fall from form the Tigers will never have a better chance to get the points. Some key match ups will decide this one. Carlisle on Reiwoldt should be a cracker and if Jumping Jack can get a run at the ball then ‘Buckets’ could be found wanting. If they sit it on Jack’s head he’ll have a dry night. Watson and Martin will likely go head to head in the middle of the ground and whoever can have the greater impact moving forward will have a major bearing. Cotchin could have a tough night with Hocking as his shadow but I’m backing the little champ to have a blinder.
CB
On face value, you’d look at the Lions-Blues match and snap up the Lions at the plus on the strength of performances over the last fortnight. But hold on a second. The Lions are 5-5 ATS as home underdogs since 2012, while the Blues are 13-5 ATS away from Etihad (compared to 3-9 at that venue). The Blues have also won four straight against Brisbane, including a 91-point thrashing in the corresponding game last year. I like the minus here.
Last year, 23 matches had a line of less than a goal – 11 of which hit the 'either side by under 15.5 points' option (at an average price of around $2.60 to $2.70, it equates to a neat little profit). So far in 2013, the same combination has hit the mark only twice out of seven times. The good news part one: That's a 13 out of 30 overall record and still a profitable venture. The good news part two: it's due! I'm sticking firm on this combination.
Sunday
Hawthorn (-66.5) v Gold Coast, MCG, 1.10pm
North Melbourne (-15.5) v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 3.15pm
Fremantle (-62.5) v Melbourne, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
The trends from 2012 in particular all point to the home side, but I’ve got to be honest – I’m not keen to lay 11 goals against a 4-4 side, even if that record is inflated by a soft early draw. However, there is still a bet here – since 2012, the Hawks are 13-3 over in the day and 14-6 over at the MCG, while the Suns are 6-3 over in the day. The 191.5 line seems a bit weak for mine – I’ll go with the trends.
GO
Nice work here mate! You’ve got me convinced. I originally liked the minus here but a bet on the overs will be enough for me. The Hawks are in red hot form and the Suns are an all-round better side. 35 goals in this game is a distinct possibility.
CB
North Melbourne is an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, wrapped in a mystery. They’re very strong at Etihad, but generally poorer in the day. The Crows have a good recent ATS record both in the day and when playing interstate. I can’t see a strong push for any particular play.
Check out Freo's total points outcomes at home in 2012 against poor sides (points conceded in brackets): 99 (35) v Brisbane, 134 (47) v Port Adelaide, 152 (57) v Western Bulldogs, 169 (37) v GWS and 141 v Melbourne. Since the start of 2012, they’re 8-0 under as home favourites, while the Demons are 5-1 under when playing interstate. I'm delighted to be with the under in this game.
GO
No love for the Roos Crows game for me either. I’m not a fan of betting games where both sides have so much at stake. It’s not often you have an eight-point game in round 9 but that is certainly the case this week. It will be a great game to watch though with two of the better coaches in the game going head to head.
The Dees battled manfully last week but whether that type of endeavour will be emulated again is another story. Freo with so many out will bottle this one up and be content with a win. The under is definitely the play. Load up!
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit Geelong -30.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit Bulldogs +28.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit Brisbane +15.5 at $1.90 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit Richmond +4.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Hawthorn v Gold Coast over 191.5 total pts at $1.91 (Bet365)
2 units on Fremantle v Melbourne under 175.5 total pts at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
CB
1 unit on Collingwood v Sydney under 185.5 total pts at $1.80 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Carlton -14.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on either side (Richmond v Essendon) by less than 15.5 points at $2.85 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Hawthorn v Gold Coast over 191.5 total pts at $1.91 (Bet365)
1 unit on Fremantle v Melbourne under 175.5 total pts at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
