The 2013 NFL Lines – Week 5

Results for Week 4 selections

NT – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 7.68 units

CB – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 1.92 units

Total – 6 selections, 6 units bet, return of 9.60 units

Results for 2013 selections

NT – 15 selections, 15.5 units bet, return of 16.15 units, 4% PoT

CB – 10 selections, 10 units bet, return of 8.74 units, -13% PoT

Total – 25 selections, 25.5 units bet, return of 24.887 units, -2% PoT

 

Recommended Bets

NT

DETROIT @ GREEN BAY: 1 UNIT ON DETROIT +7.5 @ $1.79 (TW)

The Lions are the real deal in 2013 and they can go with the Packers in what shapes as a shootout. Reggie Bush can really cause a pretty fragile Packers defence grief while the Green Bay's inability to run the ball is becoming an issue. These two should both be in the playoffs. The big start seems a little big. 

CAROLINA @ ARIZONA: 1 UNIT ON CAROLINA -1 @ $1.82 (TW)
The Panthers are good and the Cardinals are rotten. Carson Palmer is a statue and the Panthers defence eats immobile quarterbacks for breakfast. Carolina are going to have a field day against Arizona and really give their season some momentum. 

NEW YORK JETS @ ATLANTA: 1 UNIT ON NEW YORK JETS +10.5 @ $1.80 (SB)
The Falcons really aren't that good. Their defence is horrendous and the Jets can limit an offence. Tony Gonzalez certainly won't be running wild again. If Geno Smith turns in a competent performance, the Jets keep this within a touchdown. 

 

CB

BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND:  1 UNIT ON UNDER 41 TOTAL PTS AT $1.92 (SPORTSBET)

Both teams have strong pass defences in 2013, while the Browns are currently top dog defending the run (conceding just 2.9 YPG). With both passing attacks below the league average on a number of key metrics, expect this to be a low-scoring grind.

KANSAS CITY @ TENNESSEE:  1 UNIT ON TENNESSEE +2.5 AT $1.96 (SPORTSBET)

The Chiefs may be 4-0, but the Titans were only an overtime road loss (in a game against Houston that they led until late in the piece) from the same record. The Chiefs are better at running the football, but the Titans are better at defending the run. Jake Locker has been as good this season as Alex Smith has been. I’m happy to take the home underdog.

DETROIT @ GREEN BAY:  1 UNIT ON OVER 52 TOTAL PTS AT $1.92 (SPORTSBET)

Aaron Rodgers is involved. Green Bay is a strong rushing team; Detroit can’t defend the run. The Packers pass’ defence is poor; that’s a problem when facing Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson. And again, Aaron Rodgers is involved. Couldn’t you see a team racking up 25-30 points here and still losing? I could.

SEATTLE @ INDIANAPOLIS:  1 UNIT ON UNDER 43.5 TOTAL PTS AT $1.92 (CENTREBET)

A trap game for the Seahawks (West Coast team flying cross-country to play at 10am Pacific Time), but with both sides conceding less than 13 points per game so far on the back of stifling pass defences (both sides conceding a QB rating of under 70 on average), the under feels like the safest play.

NEW ENGLAND @ CINCINNATI:  1 UNIT ON NEW ENGLAND +2 AT $1.92 (SPORTSBET)

The Patriots may have looked ugly in the opening two weeks (albeit the form through their road win at Buffalo now looks stronger), but their last two efforts have been strong. They’re 4-0, playing a 2-2 team. I can get two points’ start for Brady-Belichick against Dalton-Lewis? Where do I sign?

 

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo