The 2013 NFL Lines – Week 7
Results for Week 6 selections
NT – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 0.92 units
CB – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 1.95 units
Total – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 2.87 units
Results for 2013 selections
NT – 20 selections, 20.5 units bet, return of 18.86 units, -8% PoT
CB – 17 selections, 17 units bet, return of 10.69 units, -42% PoT
Total – 37 selections, 37.5 units bet, return of 29.55 units, -21% PoT
Recommended Bets
NT
CINCINNATI @ DETROIT: 1 UNIT ON DETROIT -1 AT $1.77 (tw)
The Lions are the bet of the week. Their win against Cleveland was better than it looked considering Calvin Johnson clearly played hurt. He will be much better this week. This Lions team are the real deal while I have zero confidence in the Bengals on the road. They did, of course, struggle to beat a Thad Lewis Bills team last week.
ST LOUIS @ CAROLINA: 1 UNIT ON CAROLINA -6 AT $1.92 (SPORTSBET)
The Panthers defence is going to maul the Rams offence. I can’t get enough of the Carolina defence this year, which rates third in the league on DVOA. It is the offence that is a worry. The unit has proved wildly inconsistent. But against St Louis, at home, with the Rams off a big win, the confidence on Carolina putting two games on end is high.
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA: 1 UNIT ON DALLAS ML AT $2.30 (TW)
This is sure to be a shootout and it is surprising that the Cowboys are outsiders on the road based on what we’ve seen this year and the likelihood of Michael Vick’s absence. Tony Romo has been playing great football and his receivers have been making plays. If the Dallas defence can make a couple of plays without DeMarcus Ware then they will win this.
CB
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA: 1 UNIT ON DALLAS +3.0 AT $1.87 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)
Both sides have beaten the Giants and Redskins by a combined margin of 20-21 points, so let’s assume those wins cancel out. The Cowboys ran the Chiefs and Broncos a lot closer than the Eagles did. This is the type of game where I envisaged Dallas being underdogs of less than 3 points – the ability to grab the flat 3 makes this an appealing bet.
CINCINNATI @ DETROIT: 1 UNIT ON DETROIT -2.5 AT $1.87 (LUXBET)
The Lions are a substantially better team at home. The Bengals are substantially worse on the road (I reluctantly endorse Nick’s assessment of my Buffalo Bills above). How is this line less than the standard three-point home field advantage?
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY: 1 UNIT ON KANSAS CITY -6.5 AT $1.92 (LUXBET)
The Texans have lost 4 straight matches (3 by margins of over 20 points) and only scored a total of 45 points in those losses. The Chiefs are 6-0 with an average score line of 25-11. Arrowhead provides for one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH: 1 UNIT ON BALTIMORE +2.5 AT $1.95 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)
Just remember that the Steelers had two weeks to prepare for the Jets in posting their first victory of the season. Now they get seven days to prepare for the Ravens, yet have to lay points. I still feel that the Ravens are underrated this season.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
