The 2014 AFL Lines – Round 1 Week 1

The AFL season commences this weekend, as Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham give the written column its swansong before moving to a podcast format next week.  

CB

A quick disclaimer: while the 2012 and 2013 season-long trends point to a couple of bets in total points markets, it’s important to remember that the opening month of 2013 saw some extremely high scores before the weather cooled and the totals normalised. As a consequence, I’m bypassing any such bets for the first couple of weeks.

GO

Footy! Footy! Footy! It’s been a long and joyous summer of sport with the Urn returned, some Adam Scott magic and a successful trip to South Africa – but all that means is that we’re back where we belong. At the footsteps of another footy season! We’ve predicted plenty in the Punters Guide for 2014 and this is the chance to cash it in on a weekly basis. Crack in old son!

Friday

Collingwood (+4.5 to +7.5, 170.5 to 172.5) v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm

CB

I really like the Dockers at the small minus here. The Dockers went 10-5 ATS as favourites last year (3-0 as interstate favourite) and 17-7 ATS as favourites over the past 2 years (5-1 interstate), as well as covering in 5 of 6 matches at Etihad since 2011. In contrast, the Magpies have covered just 13 of their last 37 matches in Victoria over 2012 and 2013, including 2 out of 6 at Etihad. The Dockers won their only head-to-head match last year by 27 points – a repeat is on the cards.

GO

Fremantle were less than convincing during the pre-season matches. It appears they’ve struggled off the shorter turn around. There’s plenty of expectation surrounding the Purple Haze in 2014 and you’d expect them to front up for round 1. Collingwood need plenty to go right to challenge the top sides and with Reid in serious doubt and White already ruled out it puts a lot of strain on their already smallish unit. Happy to give the start here for a unit.

 

Saturday

GWS (+48.5 to +50.5, 185.5 to 188.5) v Sydney, Giants Stadium, 4.40pm

CB

I couldn’t be less interested in betting this game. A watch and learn exercise at best and given Sydney’s recent penchant for starting the season by barely scraping past second gear, it might not even qualify for that status.

GO

Sydney are another side that will be there when the whips are cracking but haven’t set the world on fire as yet. They’ll bully their little brother in round 1 and it will blow out to a degree but the Giants with another preseason under their belts, a new coach and some big name recruits will be up for the fight. I’ll watch with eyes wide open and wallet bolted shut.

Gold Coast (+10.5 to +11.5, 179.5) v Richmond, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm

CB

How relieved are Tigers’ fans that they don’t have to travel to Cairns for this matchup again in 2014? In any event, this feels like a trap line to me. The Tigers need to win matches such as this to be considered a genuine top-4 contender, but the Suns are plucky underdogs at home. No clear statistical trends giving a strong push one way or the other, so I’ll pass.

GO

I’m expecting plenty from the Suns this year. They are an exciting prospect and with skill to match their youthful exuberance. You’ve got to get around them.  That said the Tigers should contend for the top four and for the first time in a decade they don’t have the Blues blockbuster first up so they’ll appreciate the opportunity to get a win. Leaning towards the points here but need to see some exposed form before betting either side.

 

Sunday

Carlton (+7.5 to +8.5, 192.5 to 193.5) v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm

CB

The statistical arguments for backing Port at the plus: a 15-7 ATS record interstate over the past 2 years (including a 10-5 record as interstate underdogs), Carlton’s so-so record at Etihad over recent years.

The statistical arguments for backing Carlton at the minus: 2 wins over the Power head-to-head last year, the recent ATS record of teams favoured by 15.5 points or less (35-27 last year, 71-50 over the past 2 years).

I’ll sit this one out.

GO

Both sides, somewhat unexpectedly, won in September last year and will know that “8 point games” can exist even in round 1. The Power has a super hard running midfield and Etihad holds few demons for them. Carlton still look light in the key forward posts and without the run of Betts may struggle to fashion a score. I’m taking the line on for a unit in this one.

 

Summary of recommended bets

CB

1 unit on Fremantle -4.5 at $1.85 (TAB Sportsbet)

GO

1 unit on Fremantle -4.5 at $1.85 (TAB Sportsbet)

1 unit on Port Adelaide +8.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)