The 2014 AFL Lines – Round 16
Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham are neck and neck on profit/ loss results after 15 rounds of the AFL season. Will round 16 see one of the boys assert their betting authority? And will Greg’s current illness disenfranchise our handful of listeners who like to hear two blokes talk crap before scrolling down to the recommended bets and leave them with an unexpected 15-minute void in their weekly schedule? Plenty of questions, not many answers….. yet.
Results – Round 15
GO – 4 selections, 4 units bet, gross return of 3.79 units, 0.21 units net loss
CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, gross return of 0.00 units, 3.00 units net loss
Total – 7 selections, 7 units bet, gross return of 3.79 units, 3.21 units net loss
Results – 2014 season
GO – 65 selections, 66 units bet, gross return of 70.42 units, 4.42 units net profit, 7% PoT
CB – 58 selections, 58 units bet, gross return of 62.60 units, 4.60 units net profit, 8% PoT
Total – 123 selections, 124 units bet, gross return of 133.02 units, 9.02 units net profit, 7% PoT
Summary of recommendations
GO
1 unit on Gold Coast +5.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide -26.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Sydney -21.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
1 unit on North Melbourne +25.5 at $1.91 (Luxbet)
1 unit on over 192.5 total points (GWS v Adelaide) at $1.90 (Luxbet)
1 unit on under 185.5 total points (Gold Coast v Collingwood) at $1.88 (Sportsbet)
1 unit on over 170.5 total points (West Coast v Sydney) at $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Greg had a 2 unit bet on WC early in the season (v Melb in Rd 2), but generally we flat bet everything.
In previous years we had more differentiated bets (1.5 units, 2 units, etc), but on a bit of analysis of outcomes, those bets weren’t discernibly more successful than the 1 unit bets. So they got ditched.
Do you guys flat bet everything? Just curious
Hi Pat
Good spot – apologies for that – a copy/ paste/ fail to amend text error as I was trying to do three things at once.
It’s even worse than that – the O170.5 total bet was for WC v Syd (now amended). That line is now low-160s.
Opened low-180s and I was going to recommend waiting until game day and betting over (WC in a day match!), but when it dropped to 170.5 I figured that was enough of a weather-related drop to take the number on offer. But obviously getting O160.5 would be a much better deal! Kicking myself for not sticking with the original idea.
Geelong v Essendon was last week CB. Are you trying to place a losing bet on a race that has already been run? Bad punting sir!
So is it Port v Ess or Gee v WB?
Cheers