The AFL Lines – Round 12
Did the Richmond bubble burst? Are the Hawks on the march back towards the top of the ladder? Will Essendon ever win a game in June again? It seems like Round 11 posed as many questions as it answered. With last week’s six bye recipients all scheduled to take on teams who played last week, the Round 12 lines hold more intrigue than usual. Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham take you through their thought processes and recommended bets.
CB
It is official – Ross Lyon-coached sides are my betting kryptonite. Last year I was 0-3 betting St Kilda and 1-3 taking them on; this year I’m 0-3 backing the Dockers and 1-2 taking them on. All told, that’s a 2-11 record betting matches that involve Ross Lyon. Can I send him an invoice for my losses?
GO
Well, Geelong failed to cover on the back of a Stevie Johnson brain fart but realistically, if Carlton had kicked straight then they would have got the points so we can’t really complain there. Hawthorn covered comfortably as expected and it would have been more resounding had they not packed up with 10 minutes to go. It’ll be interesting to see the effect of the bye this week, surely an extended break has to be a positive.
Results for Round 11 selections
GO – 2 selections, 3 units bet, return of 3.80 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +27%
CB – 2 selections, 1.5 unit bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%
Total – 4 selections, 4.5 units bet, return of 3.80 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -16%
Results for 2012
GO – 41 selections, 49.5 units bet, return of 38.44 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -22%
CB – 26 selections, 25 units bet, return of 24.96 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -0.2%
Total – 67 selections, 74.5 units bet, return of 63.40 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -15%
(Please note – all times are EST)
Thursday
West Coast v Carlton, Patersons Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: West Coast -24.0 to -27.5
GO
This one could be a bit of a trap game. Carlton’s form in the West has been pretty solid in recent times and they showed glimpses on the weekend that they could be finding form. West Coast will lose Waters to suspension and they’ll miss his hard edge.
Carrazzo and Scotland were both reportedly two weeks away but have made the trip so it’ll be interesting to see if they play. Carrazzo in particular must be short of a run.
I feel that the Eagles tall forwards could be a problem for Carlton (who lack quality tall defenders) and the form of the Blues ruck division is also a worry.
Add that to the fact the Eagles have had a rest and the Blues are coming off a six-day break I’ll play one unit on the Eagles at the minus.
CB
The Eagles stumbled again on the road before their bye but at home remain dominant, with four of their five wins to date coming by 25 points or more.
Carlton meanwhile are struggling to recapture the magic, losing four of their last five and now facing a cross-country trip on a six-day turnaround. Carrazzo and Scotland travelled with the team to Perth – the Blues desperately need both to be in the 22 this week.
West Coast have won four of the last six matches played between these teams at Patersons, including that epic three-point victory in the 2011 finals series.
Here’s the kicker in my mind at least – if you believe (as I do) that interstate home field advantage is worth 10-12 points, this line would be just over two goals at a neutral venue and less than one goal in Melbourne. At that kind of line I’ve got a lean to the Eagles, and therefore will have 0.5 units on West Coast at the minus.
Friday
Adelaide v St Kilda, AAMI Stadium, 8.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Adelaide -15.5 to -17.5
GO
St Kilda welcome back some big names this week in particular, Sam Fisher who is their number one defender. McEvoy’s likely return will free up Blake to play on Tippett so the balance looks much better for the Saints.
The Crows have been just about unstoppable at home this year as their workrate seems to have increased dramatically. The Saints do have good midfield stoppers though and that could be telling.
Reiwoldt has found some form in front of goal but Talia has been outstanding for the Crows this year and expect him to get first crack at St Nick.
The Crows had the bye last week but effectively, so did the Saints so I’m a bit dubious as to how much impact that will have.
I fancy the Crows will get it done but it could go down to the wire. No play.
CB
Another game where a likely top-four team coming off a bye will take on a mid-table opponent travelling interstate on a six-day break? Nice.
The Crows did what really good sides do against Fremantle before the bye – they won well in the end despite playing poorly for patches of the game. Their midfield trio of Thompson, Dangerfield and Sloane is creating all sorts of headaches – tag only two and the third one will burn you.
St Kilda have looked better than many expected in 2012 to date but the fact remains that they are 4-0 against bottom-four sides and 2-5 against everyone else right now, including losses on the road to Port Adelaide and West Coast.
St Kilda may have won six of the last eight between these teams overall, but the Crows hold the upper hand at AAMI with wins in 2010 and 2011 against the Saints at this venue.
Again, flip the home field advantage – would you take the Crows around +6 against St Kilda at Etihad? I would – 1.5 units on Adelaide at the minus.
Saturday
GWS v Richmond, Skoda Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: GWS +58.5 to +60.5
GO
GWS unveil their number one recruit this week with big John Patton making his much anticipated debut. Likened to Jonathon Brown for his size and workrate it will be interesting to see how his first crack at the big time plays out.
Richmond will be disappointed after losing at home last week and to top it off, it was a taxing game in the wet so they’ll have some sore bodies. Jack Reiwoldt is highly unlikely to play and without him in the side I find it difficult to see where they’ll find 16+ goals.
They’ll want to get a percentage boost but GWS have proven difficult to put away this year covering plenty of spreads and with the Tigers having next week off it is likely to be a case of them doing what is necessary to get the points then enjoying an extended break.
The plus is the play here for one unit.
CB
GWS may be 8-2 against the spread right now, but I think bookies have wised up to the fact that superior opponents don’t go all out against them, focusing more on securing the four competition points and giving key personnel a rest. As such, while the head-to-head markets for GWS games are largely unchanged (Richmond are as short as $1.01 with some books), the lines for their games have been sneaking ever lower. Thus I don’t think the 8-2 record holds as much weight here as it otherwise would.
Richmond were going great guns right up until last week (they are 8-3 against the spread themselves in 2012), where they laid an egg against the Dockers. How they respond to that loss will tell us a bit about their mindset and their prospects of seeing September.
Ten goals is a lot to be giving away on the road, so I’ll be steering clear of this game.
Gold Coast v North Melbourne, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Gold Coast +36.5 to +37.5
GO
North have been in shocking form and their boardroom troubles have been able to overshadow what has been a dismal few weeks. That being said the Suns were disgusting last week and with a number of senior players injured and a few more in the gun it could be a very shallow side that takes the field this week.
The Suns have really struggled to hold opposition power forwards and this week looms as an opportunity for Drew Petrie to find some form. Expect Brad Scott to play him close to goal, much the same as Riewoldt did last week.
North need to give their supporters something this week and after the bye I think they’ll be frothing to get out there and show the football world that they’ve underperformed – one unit on North at the minus.
CB
North should be disgusted that they’re less than seven-goal favourites for this. Mind you, after losing four of their last five and being lapped by Hawthorn last start, it’s tough to justify a line any bigger than this.
Last year North Melbourne won the corresponding match by 59 points, while they also defeated the Suns by 34 points in Round Five of this season.
North suck. Gold Coast also suck. No bet.
Sunday
Hawthorn v Brisbane, MCG, 1.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Hawthorn -48.5 to -50.5
GO
The Hawks have been in strong form recently and they should easily account for the Lions this week. They have an enviable balance across the paddock and fire power aplenty. That being said, Brisbane knocked off the ladder leaders last start and have had a week off to study what they did right.
If they can keep Brown and Merrett forward and produce some service from the midfield then they could stretch the Hawks defence who are undersized.
The ruck dual of Hale and Hudson is intriguing with both big men playing some great footy. At their feet you have the experienced hard bodies of Sewell, Mitchell and Burgoyne up against the emerging talent of Rockliff, Redden and Rich. Simon Black will need to pass a fitness test and he is pivotal to the Lions chances of holding the Hawks.
Franklin will want to kick a bag at the G and capitalise on his good form and unexpected reprieve from the MRP. Hawthorn to be far too good here but the emotional investment is enough this week.
CB
Hawthorn are starting to power through this middle section of their schedule and threaten for a top-four finish. I can’t see anyone below them on the ladder making a push (unless Geelong somehow rediscover their former selves), making it a race in six for four spots. Therefore, I don’t expect them to take their foot off the accelerator here.
The Lions were terrific in upsetting West Coast at home before their bye, but they’ve only won two of their last 14 interstate matches and copped some thrashings along the way. I think they’ll be clearly outclassed here.
Outside of a 2009 win by Brisbane at Aurora Stadium it has been all the Hawks in the head-to-head battles of the past four years. The two teams have only met twice at the MCG since 2005 (the most recent such match occurring in 2007), with Hawthorn prevailing comfortably on both occasions.
The eight and a bit goal line seems about right to me, so I’ll sit this one out.
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Western Bulldogs -15.0 to -16.5
GO
I saw first-hand last week just how much the Power midfield can struggle against mature bodies. Without Boak and Thomas they lacked grunt and were soundly beaten. Given that they have the bye next week I think Primus will be imploring them to give a manic performance this week.
Their defensive unit is solid but was overwhelmed by the Hawks. Expect a different result this week against the Dogs who have struggled to kick a score this year. Liam Jones was good in the twos and should come back but he has failed to have any sort of impact this year.
Cornes has been in good form as a stopper and his battle with Boyd should be a cracker. If the Dogs can dominate the stoppages (which they should do) then they could run away with this one but at this stage, they can’t be trusted to get the job done. No play.
CB
The Dogs looked for a number of weeks like they might be rounding into some form (four wins plus respectable losses to Collingwood and Geelong in a six-week span) before they went to Sydney and were promptly dispatched. Now I don’t really know what to make of them, other than the fact that they’re an 11th to 15th sort of team.
Speaking of 11th to 15th, the Power have shown enough this season to demonstrate that they deserve to leave the cellar, but not enough to be pushing for a spot in the eight. They too have been enigmatic this season, with their away record in particular (just the one win – against the 0-11 Suns) worrying me.
The Bulldogs have won five straight against Port (including their most recent meeting at Etihad by 20 points in 2007).
I think these two teams have comparable ability and thus have a slight lean to the Power at a plus which exceeds the usual home state advantage, but I don’t feel confident enough about them to have a bet.
Bye: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on West Coast -24.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on GWS + 60.5 at $1.85 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit North Melbourne -36.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
0.5 units on West Coast -24.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1.5 units on Adelaide -15.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
