The AFL Lines – Round 13
The Eagles and Crows kept rolling at home, Hawthorn continued to loom larger in the top four picture, while inaccurate kicking by both Richmond and North Melbourne allowed the struggling Giants and Suns respectively a sniff of victory in the final term before final going down. With the last of the bye-riddled weeks now upon us, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham assess the Round 13 matches and their implications for the remainder of the season.
CB
What a shemozzle last week was. The Eagles win by 10 behinds and fail to cover the -24.0 line, but all looks to be back on track when the Crows kick out to a 31-point three quarter time lead against a team lower on the ladder……. and then they put the cue in the rack, pick up with four competition points but screw over anyone who unloaded on the -15.5 line. The 2.86 unit collect that went down the drain with that fadeout represents the difference between a +3% POT and a -8% POT. You’re damn right I’m still bitter.
GO
Again poor kicking let us down. West Coast won by ten behinds and had Natinui kicked the ball instead of trying to bounce it then they likely covered. North were incredibly wasteful but given they had no answer for Ablett it might not have mattered.
Results for Round 12 selections
GO – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 1.85 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -38%
CB – 2 selections, 2 unit bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%
Total – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 1.85 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -63%
Results for 2012
GO – 44 selections, 52.5 units bet, return of 40.29 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -23%
CB – 28 selections, 27 units bet, return of 24.96 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -8%
Total – 72 selections, 79.5 units bet, return of 65.25 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -18%
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Sydney v Geelong, SCG, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Sydney -7.5 to -9.5
GO
A big test for both clubs. If Sydney can get a big win here then I think that legitimises their claim as contenders. Everyone is happy to write the Cats off but despite a noticeable form drop they’ve still managed to get the wins.
Goodes is likely to start for Sydney and they’ll welcome him back. Bartel and Bolton head to head in the midfield looks a great match up as well.
At home you feel Sydney probably have the edge but it’s a bit too close to call for me. No play.
CB
Sydney’s three losses to date have come via two aberrations on the road (one at their house of horrors – the MCG) and a close home loss against the 9-2 Crows this season. At this stage it feels like they, Hawthorn and Adelaide will fight out the final two spots in the top four.
It’s unusual to lay the boot into a side that have won six of their last eight, but Geelong appear to have been doing just enough to get by, as distinct from their pattern over recent years of asserting themselves as the elite side in the competition.
The Cats have made almost all of the running in the recent head to head matches, winning nine of the last 10, including both matches played at the SCG.
Nonetheless, I think Sydney are the better team in 2012 and with home field advantage to boot, I’m very warm on the Swans here – two units on the minus.
Saturday
Western Bulldogs v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Western Bulldogs -18.5 to -20.5
GO
The Lions had a dip for the first half against the Hawks and showed plenty of starch. The Dogs are coming off a solid, if not totally convincing win against the Power.
Voss will have the boys up this week and they’ll welcome back Black to boot. The midfield holds the key here with both sides placing plenty of value on the contested ball.
Cordy has given the Dogs a target in recent times and they are gradually building their offence but three goals is a bit to take on when you have a propensity to waste chances. No play.
CB
Here’s a stat for you – the Bulldogs’ 2012 record against sides currently in the eight: zero wins, six losses, average of 64 points scored and 108 conceded. Their record against sides currently outside the eight: five wins, zero losses, average of 92 points scored and 61 conceded.
For the hell of it, let’s run the same ruler over the Lions. Against sides currently in the eight they have one win, four losses, an average of 67 points scored and 112 conceded. Against sides currently outside the eight they have three wins, three losses, an average of 93 points scored and 82 conceded.
The Bulldogs have won eight of the last 10 against Brisbane overall including all five played in Melbourne, with the four most recent such wins all coming by in excess of 50 points.
I actually don’t mind either side – they’re not going to play finals, but they compete well in the games that are ‘winnable’. Three goals feels about right to me, so I’ll sit this one out.
Collingwood v West Coast, MCG, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Collingwood -14.5 to -15.5
GO
This will be a corker, both teams out to show the competition that they are the benchmark. The Pies are slowly regaining their stars and with Reid back their defence looks a much better balance.
While the Eagles have the ruck ascendency you’d have to say that the Pies on-ballers are probably a better unit. Beams and Sidebottom have stepped up this year but with Pendlebury still unlikely they might find it a bit more difficult with the attention of the Eagles run with players.
This is a flip of the coin and if we’ve seen one thing this year it has been close games between good sides, so I’m happy to play one unit on the Eagles to cover.
CB
As is often the cases when two elite teams clash, it’s best to ignore their overall records and focus on their records against other high-calibre teams.
Collingwood have lost to Hawthorn and Carlton, beaten Richmond (by 21 points) Essendon (1) and Geelong (12) – all in Melbourne. Arguably, only the 26-point win against the Crows in Adelaide stands out as an emphatic win by a premiership alpha dog.
West Coast have been thumped by Essendon at Etihad, beaten Hawthorn (by five points), St Kilda (30) and Carlton (1) at home, and beaten Richmond (10) at Etihad. It’s a strong record, but with three of those four wins coming by 10 points or less, is it really THAT strong? More concerning is the fact that they’re 3-2 on the road this season, with two of those wins coming against the Bulldogs and Giants.
Head to head, Collingwood have won the last six matches, including four in Melbourne and both matches played at the MCG last year.
If you take the view that home field advantage for a game like this is worth two goals, you’re left with the implication that Collingwood are better than West Coast, but by less than a kick. That sounds pretty close to right for mine – no play.
Fremantle v Essendon, Patersons Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Fremantle +2.5 to +4.0
GO
Super important for both sides – if the Dockers can pinch this one then their finals hopes are well on track; if the Bombers lose then top four is highly unlikely. Freo will be keen to put on a big performance for their home fans and build some momentum.
Essendon like to move the ball freely while the Dockers try to choke it up a bit on the long narrow Subiaco ground. It should be tight.
With no points on offer I think the play here is the Dockers head to head as they are still very difficult to knock off at home, but Essendon have a habit of upsetting me so I’ll sit this one out.
CB
I’ve been quite harsh on the Dockers at various points of the past month or two, but have I been giving them an unnecessarily bad wrap? Consider this: they have a 6-5 record, despite playing eight other sides who have six or more wins this season. They’ve beaten Geelong, St Kilda (away) and Richmond (away), while losing to Sydney, Carlton, Hawthorn, West Coast and Adelaide.
Meanwhile, my beloved Bombers have stumbled in the past two weeks but are still very well placed at 8-3 to make a run at a top four spot. A 3-2 record against sides with at least six wins this season looks pretty promising, especially when those two losses have come by a combined five points. And yet…..
The Bombers haven’t enjoyed their recent trips to Patersons to take on the Dockers, winning only once in the last five attempts and losing all of the other four games by 34 points or more.
If you like the home side on the back of that poor Patersons record, I can’t blame you. If you like the visitors because they haven’t lost a game by more than a kick all season, I can’t blame you. I’m not betting this match – you can’t blame me.
Sunday
Melbourne v GWS, MCG, 3.15pm
Bookmakers’ line: Melbourne -21.5 to -22.5
GO
With both team 1 and 9 I’m not sure blockbuster is the right term. If the Dees drop this game then a shit storm of epic proportions awaits them.
GWS will sense blood and be ready to have a real dip.
Melbourne should win but with two ordinary sides in play it’s hard to justify opening the wallet.
CB
We’ve discussed my record when tipping games between bad sides ad nauseum this season already – suffice to say, I won’t be betting here.
Let’s just hope that the Demon faithful have thought of some imaginative ways to heckle Tom Scully.
I’d like to see lots of fans in pirate get-up with a ‘Scull-duggery’ theme, or signs offering Tom’s father $150,000 per annum to fetch pies and beers for people who don’t want to leave their seat during the game. It’ll give Bruce and Dennis something to chat about in the less interesting parts of this match – of which there may be plenty.
North Melbourne v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: North Melbourne +18.5 to +20.5
GO
North are an abomination. It is almost impossible to find even one positive about that club at the moment. Everyone is struggling.
Adelaide are just the opposite. They are ticking all the right boxes and their structure is enviable. They need to win these games and under Sanderson they seem to be taking every opportunity.
If you look at the last six weeks of footy you’d have to say that the Crows are an 8-10 goal better side than North so I have no hesitation in having 2.5 units on the Crows at the minus.
CB
Were the Kangaroos lucky to escape with the four competition points last week, or did their shoddy kicking for goal mask a performance where they dominated general play? Either way, their ‘honourable loss’ (copyright: Richmond Football Club) to West Coast in Round Six was probably the last respectable performance they’ve submitted.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Crows – they’ve only lost to Collingwood at home and Hawthorn away, whilst beating five other sides who have six or more wins in 2012. The Adelaide faithful could not have asked for much more from Brenton Sanderson and his rejuvenated side. Perhaps the most impressive aspect is their 4-1 record away from home, including substantial wins over Carlton and Fremantle and a narrow win over the 8-3 Swans. The 2012 Crows are legit.
North Melbourne have won the last two clashes between these teams (both at Etihad), but the Crows won each of the seven matches prior to that (two played at Etihad).
The Roos simply appear to be going in the wrong direction though and catch a committed, in-form team at a bad time. However, if you flipped the home field advantage around for this game, the line would be around seven goals at AAMI Stadium and I’d probably be sitting this game out – ergo, I won’t be betting here.
Bye:Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on West Coast +15.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
2.5 units on Adelaide -18.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
2 units on Sydney -7.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
