The AFL Lines – Round 14
The bye weeks are over…. nine games of footy per week are back! Unfortunately, those three disrupted weeks took some punting casualties with them, not least of which was Making The Nut’s AFL betting headquarters. With 10 rounds plus finals left to repair the damage, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham look to start the long road back with their tips for Round 14.
CB
Oh Sydney….. how could you break my heart like that? 35 points up midway through the third quarter, then Ben McGlynn hitting the post from just over 10 metres out with only seconds before the siren….. when a goal would have been sufficient to cover. That was the exclamation mark on a three week bye-ravaged period where I invested 5.5 units and came up with a complete duck egg. Let us never speak of the bye weeks (and the crisis of confidence they left me with) again.
GO
We generally only go the hammer when it’s a sure thing. Hands up anyone who thought the Roos would get within a bulls roar of the Crows…The fact they flogged them stings a bit but not as much as yours did I feel.
A flash back to Friday night…five seconds to go, Swans need a goal to cover and the ball gets pumped into the forward line. Sharked off the contest and the roving forward runs into an open goal and hits the post. A quick look across the lounge room to Mr Bingham and the anguish is clearly evident.
CB – “Who was that?”
GO – “Ben McGlynn”
CB – “Fuck you Ben McGlynn!”
CB
I stand by that statement.
Results for Round 13 selections
GO – 2 selections, 3.5 units bet, return of 1.92 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -45%
CB – 1 selections, 2 units bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%
Total – 3 selections, 5.5 units bet, return of 1.92 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -65%
Results for 2012
GO – 46 selections, 56 units bet, return of 42.21 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -25%
CB – 29 selections, 29 units bet, return of 24.96 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -14%
Total – 75 selections, 85 units bet, return of 67.17 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -21%
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Carlton v Hawthorn, MCG, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Carlton +22.5 to +23.5
GO
I can’t wait for this one. It’s a massive game for both clubs. The Blues need a big scalp to end their pain and the growing momentum behind the idea they will struggle to make the eight. Hawthorn can go a long way towards sewing up a top four spot with win against Carlton.
Both sides would appreciate the rest last week but Carlton needed it more. Judd should be a bit better for the rest and could be a key player in his 100th game for the Blues. Carrazzo was a big in against the Eagles and bolsters their midfield rotation. Laidler did his knee again and with Jamieson struggling Carlton could not afford to lose another tall defender. Especially given Waite is still struggling and is doubtful to be included.
Hodge is a smokey to play this week and could possibly don the green vest. Lewis is back from suspension and will be chomping at the bit to get involved. Franklin is in cracking form as well but will need quality ball.
I think the Hawks will win and should probably win by six goals but it’s been shown this year that when they struggle in the middle, they struggle to win and the Blues are their match inside. No play.
CB
After Sydney last week and the Crows the week prior I could not be more afraid of betting on Friday nights right now, but I think there’s a bet to be had here.
The Blues looked significantly better a fortnight ago against West Coast when Carrazzo and Scotland returned to the side – with Collingwood lying in wait next week, they will be desperate to avoid staring down the barrel of a 6-8 record come Friday week. For an ‘underachieving’ 6-6 side, it’s amazing to think they are 7-5 against the spread, including 3-1 ATS at the MCG.
Hawthorn have looked the goods in their last three wins, but these have come against North, Port and the travelling Lions. While you can only beat what is put up against you, repeating the dose against finals-calibre sides will be a much tougher proposition.
The Hawks have won eight straight against Carlton, with six wins coming by 23 points or more. To be fair though, some of the bigger thrashings have come at Etihad – a ground Carlton have struggled on in recent times. The three MCG wins for Hawthorn in that period (in 2009, 2006 and 2005) have come by margins of 4, 23 and 24 points respectively.
The likely desperation of the Blues is too much to pass up the big line, even if it is a Friday night…. deep breath…. deeper breath…. one unit on the Blues at the plus.
Saturday
Collingwood v Fremantle, MCG, 1.45pm
Bookmakers’ line: Collingwood -37.5 to -39.5
GO
The Pies keep rolling on despite the lack of form of Chris Dawes. Pendlebury won’t play again this week but give the form of Beams and Sidebottom (not to mention Swan), I don’t think it will be an issue.
Reid will be better for the run and will be close to his best this week which could pose some problems for the Dockers with his ability to intercept and create.
Freo unravelled their good work against Richmond with a lack lustre performance against the Dons at home. If they are going to challenge for finals they can’t afford to drop those games and they’ll be stinging.
They have some talented players but across the park they’ll be no match for the Pies. I think the bookies have this one about right with the Pies to win by seven goals.
CB
It’s been a while since anyone complained about Buckley taking over from Malthouse isn’t it? Winning nine straight and ascending to the top of the ladder will do that for you.
The Dockers looked a good chance to grab a valuable four points last week at multiple stages of the game against Essendon, but couldn’t hold off the Bombers at the critical juncture. Given how poorly the Bombers’ recent away record is, that’s not a good sign.
Collingwood have won the last three at the MCG against Fremantle, including the most recent match (in 2010) by 84 points. Given the Dockers’ terrible overall record at the ‘G (10 wins from 38 matches played there, albeit they won the most recent of those games against Richmond), it would be an extremely brave move to tip the Dockers here. The line looks about right to my eye, and thus I’ll be sitting this one out.
Adelaide v Richmond, AAMI Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Adelaide -16.0 to -17.5
GO
Tippett’s concussion has been the big worry among punters but my mail is that he’s a certain starter so that means Rance will have his hands full with the big marking forward. Walker will be a handful for the Tigers while Rutten and Talia will share the Reiwoldt duties high and low.
The midfield battle is epic with Thompson, Dangerfield and Sloan up against Cotchin, Martin and Delidio. I expect Tuck to get the job on Thompson and Vince will run with Cothin. Jacobs needs to shine against Maric as well who’ll be keen to stick it up his former club.
The Crows need to make up for their poor showing last week and if we know one thing about Brenton Sanderson coached sides, they are never flat two weeks in a row and after labelling a large portion of his roster “imposters” during the week expect them to be firing – one unit on the Crows at the minus.
CB
The Crows were exceptionally disappointing last week, but it’s often wise to forgive a good side one stinker of a performance (especially if it came away from home).
Meanwhile, Richmond lost a bit of momentum in their last two matches before the bye week, losing at home to Fremantle and barely squeezing by GWS. For a team that was travelling so well after 10 rounds, the drop-off would have been some cause for concern.
Richmond have won the last two against Adelaide (including the corresponding game at AAMI last year), but the Crows have won three of the last four between these teams played at this ground. Overall, Richmond have won nine of 28 games they’ve played at AAMI.
I feel like this game is reasonably comparable to the Adelaide v St Kilda game (albeit that this time it’s the underdog who has the fresh legs) of a fortnight ago where the Crows should absolutely have covered, so will have one unit on the Crows at the minus here.
West Coast v Gold Coast, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: West Coast -69.5 to -70.5
GO
West Coast have a habit of beating up poor teams at home and I can’t see why this week should be any different. The only issue would be if Worsfold decided to rest half his squad as he did in the corresponding game last year when the Suns lost by only 18 points at Pattersons.
I’d like to see the line-ups before passing judgement on this one but I feel like 70 is a bit light given West Coast’s ability to score heavily and the likely ruck dominance.
Stay tuned.
CB
The Eagles are good, the Suns are terrible and the line is huge. Also, if you believe both Chinese proverbs and the words of Mick Malthouse, the ox is slow but the earth is patient.
West Coast have played only one sub 6-6 team at home this season (Melbourne) so far, winning that game by 108 points. The Gold Coast have lost all five of their interstate games this season, but only two have been by more than this line.
West Coast won the corresponding game last year by 18 points after putting the cue in the rack at quarter time when sitting on a huge lead.
I couldn’t be less enticed to bet here.
Essendon v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Essendon -29.5 to -30.5
GO
Great win by the Bombers in the west last week. I keep waiting for them to fall over but they keep defying and keep winning. A breakout game from Hurley would have Hirdy beaming and is possibly the last piece in the puzzle.
The Dogs were towelled by the Lions and while the emotion of the Brisbane-Fitzroy Hall of Fame dinner may have spurred their opponents, they were still faaaarking ordinary.
I’d hate to think that McCartney would try and bottle this one up, even though he probably should, but I think he’ll try and allow his team to play with some flow.
The Dons have their measure in that department and should run away with this one. Bombers by 50 and one unit on the minus.
CB
Here’s a stat I copied and pasted across from last week’s column for you – the Bulldogs’ 2012 record against sides currently in the eight: zero wins, six losses, average of 64 points scored and 108 conceded. That doesn’t bode well for taking on a Bombers line-up that just snapped a potential losing streak with a strong win over in the west.
Essendon have won three of the last four between these teams, including wins by 49 and 55 points in the two matches at Etihad last year.
I won’t be taking my boys on and while I have the slightest of leans to them at the minus, won’t be backing them here either – no play.
Sydney v GWS, ANZ Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Sydney -65.5 to -67.5
GO
Fuck off Sydney! With a lean towards the points.
CB
Oh good, another game with a monster favourite – should be a scintillating week of viewing…..
The Swans won by 63 points in the opening round of the season. So far this season, GWS are conceding 60 points more than they are scoring on average. Suffice to say, there’s nothing in the trends that makes me want to part with money here.
Sunday
Geelong v Port Adelaide, Simonds Stadium, 1.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Geelong -46.5 to -49.5
GO
Dubbed the “Battle for Boak” in some circles. Well only here really I think. Travis will be in attendance with his immediate and extended family, cats, dogs, birds, fish, suitcase…you get the point.
It could be an interesting sideshow in what promises to be a really shit game of footy.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Port caused an upset given the gaps in the Cats form. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Geelong won by 20 goals, so given that mental spread I’ll be sitting this one out.
CB
Finally, here we are, a more competitive game to think….. ahh crap.
Fun fact 1: Geelong have only beaten one side all season by more than 47.5 points.
Fun fact 2: Port have yet to lose a game by more than 47.5 points this season, although they’ve skated close to the line on a few occasions.
Fun facts 3, 4 and 5: A five-point win by the Power in 2007 has been the only moment of joy for them against Geelong since the first half of the previous decade. Indeed, three of the last four wins over Port at the Cattery have come by 59 points or more, while the Power have won only two of 11 matches at the ground since joining the competition.
Fun fact 6: With the 2012 trends suggesting Port at the plus but the head to head history suggesting the opposite, I’ll be sitting this one out.
Brisbane v Melbourne, Gabba, 3.15pm
Bookmakers’ line: Brisbane -26.0 to -26.5
GO
Both teams had big wins last week and both surprised the masses with the ease of their respective victories. Mitch Clark is a massive loss for the Dees given he has been their one constant this year and they’ll certainly miss him for the rest of 2012. Rivers showed glimpses up front but with the Lions tall forward line he might be needed down back.
Brisbane have been in good form and the emergence of Zorko adds depth to a young and talented midfield unit.
A massive game for both teams but it won’t be a great spectacle. Lions to have another big win at home and I follow with a unit on the minus.
CB
It’s amazing to think that the Lions are only one game (plus some percentage) outside the top eight at the midway point of the season. They’ve won three of their last five overall and both of their last two matches at home – not too shabby.
The Demons also look to have gotten their act into gear of late, winning two of the last three (including a win over the 9-3 Bombers) and losing only to the competition leaders. Beating GWS may not be a great reference point form wise, but at least they look to be crawling out of the cellar.
Brisbane won their opening round matchup at the MCG by 41 points and have won four of the last six between the teams at the Gabba – all four of those wins coming by over 40 points.
At a pinch I’d be leaning very slightly to the plus here, but given my record when tipping lowly teams, it’s for the best that this match is left alone.
St Kilda v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: St Kilda -18.5 to -20.5
GO
Amazingly given their heinous form the Roos could sneak into the eight with a win here and results in their favour. They’ve been shithouse a lot and pretty good a lot, with hardly anything in between. If they can maintain last week’s form they’ll give the Saints a scare I think, but who would be brave enough to get on these mavericks.
The Saints have been solid and should win but again, I can’t trust the Roos either way just yet so I’ll sit this one out.
CB
How do you solve a problem like North Melbourne? They looked really strong for the first three weeks of the competition, extremely disappointing for much of the next eight matches and right when they’d been counted out by almost everyone…. BAM! Down in flames go the 9-2 Crows…
The Saints are a little easier to work out – they’ve won four out of five against teams with less than six wins, one out of four against teams with seven or more wins, and one out of three against fellow 6-6 teams. They are your quintessential middle-of-the-road team.
Head to head, St Kilda have won the last four and six of the last seven. They won the two corresponding games last year by nine points (Round 15) and 65 points (Round 23, when a spot in the final eight was still a possibility for North).
The riddle to this match is simple yet complex – the Saints are a fairly stable mid-tier benchmark, so if you can solve for where North Melbourne sit relative to that spot, you know whether you want the minus or the plus here. I still can’t work the Kangaroos out though, so I’ll take neither.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Adelaide -16.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Essendon – 29.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet, Flemington Sportsbet)
1 unit Brisbane – 26.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
1 unit on Carlton +23.5 at $1.90 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Adelaide -16.0 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
