The AFL Lines – Round 4
The Round 4 AFL fixture appears to be headlined by the first three games of the week (which feature teams who have won a combined 15 matches out of 18 thus far) and a West Coast v Carlton match where, for the Blues in particular, a loss could have major ramifications for a 2013 season which commenced with such high expectations. With a few of the fast starters this year squaring off this weekend, Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham assess the relevant form lines and give us their tips.
CB
Finally, a decent week on the punt! It’s about bloody time. Not a moment too soon either – with a complicated set of matchups ahead of this weekend, the concept of ‘pick your battles’ will unquestionably come to the fore.
GO
So the Giants are a lot further off the pace than I gave them credit for. With Patton now gone for the year I think the wooden spoon awaits them. They got some good kids but there are still plenty of holes in their game. Their only hope is the continued implosion of the Demons who were great for 50 minutes and abysmal for the remainder. A big weekend ahead indeed. Let's rip into it.
Results for Round 3 selections
GO – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 3.82 units
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 7.61 units
Total – 8 selections, 8 units bet, return of 11.43 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 10 selections, 11 units bet, return of 11.42 units, 4% PoT
CB – 14 selections, 14 units bet, return of 13.36 units, -5% PoT
Total – 24 selections, 25 units bet, return of 24.78 units, -1% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Sydney (-7.5 to -8.5) v Geelong, SCG, 7.50pm
GO
The form lines here are reasonably well established given both sides have come from behind to put the Roos away in the last fortnight. Both struggled early before monster third terms gave them the impetus. Sydney were more dominant but the Cats were more impressive. The midfield battle shapes as a cracker.
CB
Sydney were 7.5 point favourites in the corresponding game last year – a match which ended with Ben McGlynn hitting the post from less than 10 metres out in the dying seconds to inflict a crushing loss on those of us who bet the minus. I’m still bitter. Nonetheless, I think there are potentially two bets here. The last four matches between these teams at the SCG have resulted in (a) three margins of six points or less; and (b) four total points scores of under 180, including three which were under 160. With a couple of competition heavyweights sizing each other up on a small ground, I’ll be looking at both the under and the either side by less than 15.5 points options.
GO
I'm with you on the either side under 15.5, this one should be close but I'll stay off the unders. Both sides have shown a desire to score quickly this year and can pile on from the midfield so the small confines may be conducive to a shootout.
Saturday
Hawthorn (-28.5 to -30.5) v Fremantle, Aurora Stadium, 1.45pm
Richmond (+4.5 to +5.5) v Collingwood, MCG, 2.10pm
St Kilda (+17.5) v Essendon, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
West Coast (-18.5 to -19.5) v Carlton, Patersons Stadium, 7.40pm
Gold Coast (+11.5 to +13.5) v Port Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
We have a couple of cracking games to open proceedings on Saturday, while the Blues may be playing for their season in the evening. Who do you like?
GO
Two weeks ago you'd have put your Bollocks on Fremantle with five goals start but their bruising fade last week and the Hawks late demolitions of the Eagles and the Pies would have me leaning towards the minus.
The Tigers have plenty on the line. A win has them shaping as a contender. A loss and the doubters will appear. The Pies will want to bounce back hard but I'm not sure if their head to head midfield style can get it done. Key injuries to Collingwood have left the door ajar so I think Richmond can get the biscuits here.
CB
I’m going to stick firm with the Dockers at the plus here. From Round 15 of last year onwards (including finals), the Hawks are 12-3 with a percentage of 155, while the Dockers are 11-3 with a percentage of 144. Moreover, the Dockers lead the competition in tackles per game. Last year they were third behind Sydney and Geelong – two teams who caused the Hawks no end of headaches.
As for the Collingwood-Richmond game, the 2013 AFL Punters Guide tells me that betting the either side by less than 15.5 points option when the line is less than a goal is a profitable move across a whole season, so I will be on that bandwagon.
GO
I don't like much at all in the Saints Bombers clash or the Suns Power for that matter but The Eagles should trounce the Blues at Subiaco. Kreuzer has been a tower of strength for the Blues and without him they could really struggle especially given Cox’s recent form.
The Blues haven't grasped Mick's grand plan yet and the Eagles are never dusted at home twice in a row. Load up on the minus in this one.
CB
On paper the Eagles at the minus looks like the play – much like last week though, Carlton’s likely desperation to keep their season alive is just enough to keep me out of it. The one I do like is the under in the Suns-Power game. The Suns have only exceeded 190 total points in nine of their last 25 games, while for the Power it is eight out of 25 against the same metric.
Sunday
Melbourne (-7.5 to -9.5) v GWS, MCG, 1.10pm
Adelaide (-35.5 to -36.5) v Western Bulldogs, AAMI Stadium, 3.15pm
North Melbourne (-20.5 to -21.5) v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
GO
There will be plenty at stake on “cellar dweller Sunday” but not too much to write home about for the footy fans. If you bet the Dees-GWS game you've got serious issues and should be seeking help.
The Crows form shouldn't see the give anyone 6 goals start, but the Dogs were insipid last week so can't really justify a flutter there.
North v Brissie should see the Roos get their first points of the year but given their inability to finish off games this year you shouldn't be trusting them either.
With any luck Sunday arvo will be sunny enough to get a round in instead.
CB
The only bet I like on Sunday is the over in the North Melbourne v Brisbane game. North are an over side at Etihad, Brisbane are an over side when travelling interstate and hopefully the ground manager will remember to close the roof this week.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on either side (Sydney v Geelong) by less than 15.5 points at $2.70 (Flemington Sportsbet)
1 unit on Richmond +5.5 at $1.84 (Sportsbet)
2 units on West Coast -19.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
1 unit on either side (Sydney v Geelong) by less than 15.5 points at $2.70 (Flemington Sportsbet)
1 unit on Sydney v Geelong under 180.5 total points at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Fremantle +30.5 at $1.90 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on either side (Collingwood v Richmond) by less than 15.5 points at $2.85 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Gold Coast v Port Adelaide under 190.5 total points at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on North Melbourne v Brisbane over 200.5 total points at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
