The Early Line: Finals Week 2
Betting in this match is fascinating with Manly and the Cowboys at pick 'em with some joints with the Eagles getting up to 1.5 points with other joints. It has been a rough week for Manly, who lost Steve Matai to suspension and possibly Jamie Lyon, Tony Williams and Joe Galuvao to injury. Premiership favourites one week, home outsiders the second. The Eagles have won 6 of 8 against the Cowboys and have won the last four outside of Townsville, keeping the Cowboys to a total of four tries over that period. There are no real betting situations in this but one stat from AFL football stands out: the top four team who lost the qualifying final has won 22 of the last 24 semis. With the Cows still a risk in Sydney, Manly are worth a 1 unit bet.
Manly are an under team, the Cows an over one. No total.
COVER FORM: Manly 13-12 (WWWLL), Cowboys 14-11 (WWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 12-13 (UOUUU), Cowboys 16-9 (OOUOO)
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South Sydney will go in 6.5 to 8 point favourites in their final against Canberra. The Bunnies were horrendous against Melbourne, playing as bad as they have all year. The Raiders have won 9 of their last 12. Souths are certainly a better team at ANZ, where they have gone 26-11 ATS and 15-5 ATS as a favourite since 2010 and where they have won 10 of their last 11. The Raiders have been better on the road this year, going 8-4 ATS. My natural inclination is to go with the Raiders here and the Bunnies are a shocking 4-10 ATS at night this year but there is still the possibility the Raiders get blown out and the AFL record of top four teams bouncing back is good. No bet.
There is no total play here.
COVER FORM: Souths 14-11 (LLWWL), Canberra 13-12 (WLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Souths 12-13 (UUOUU), Canberra 14-11 (UUUOO)
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*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips: Manly, South Sydney
1 unit on Manly +1.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
Overall: 279.5 units bet for 283.71 units returned for a POT of 1.51%
Line: 131 units bet for 137.97 units returned for a POT of 5.32%
Total: 148.5 units bet for 145.74 units returned for a POT of -1.86%
Tags: Rugby League
"one stat from AFL football stands out: the top four team who lost the qualifying final has won 22 of the last 24 semis."
By my reckoning, top 4 NRL teams who lost in week 1 have won only 7 of the last 18 semi finals (since 1999). This extends to 7 out of 22 if you include 1995 and 1996 (i.e. when we had the same system as now).
I understand the 1999-2011 system was different to now, but a top 4 team losing in week 1 is still a shock for many of these teams (whether it's to a fellow top 4 team or a 5 through 8 team). I'd like to think the recent NRL history is more relevant here than that of the AFL.