The Early Line: Grand Final

Betting in the 2012 NRL Grand Final between Canterbury and Melbourne opened pick 'em but some strong support for the Storm has seen them firm to 1.5-point favourites. Both teams enter this off three straight covers, though Canterbury were the top cover team this year. No real betting situations stand out though the Storm are 23-9 ATS as a favourite of under 6 points the last three years.

The Storm have won 9 of the last 12 against the Bulldogs with honours split this year, the Storm winning 12-6 at home while the Bulldogs won 20-4 in Mackay. At ANZ, the Bulldogs have won 10 straight and 20 of 26 while the Storm are 9-3 all-time at the venue but have played there just once since 2009, downing Souths in round 13 last year. Des Hasler and Craig Bellamy have won four premierships between them and have met 18 times, Hasler holding a 10-8 advantage and winning 4 of the last 6. While the numbers have a slight lean Melbourne, looking at how the teams match-up, I really like Canterbury. The Storm have the three best players on the field but probably the worst five or six as well. The Bulldogs have a much bigger and much stronger pack and this game is expected to be played tight. The Storm edge defence also takes a lot of risks. Play the plus for 1.5 units.

The two games this year have averaged just 21 points and 10 of the last 12 between these two coaches has tallied 36 or fewer. The line has gone up 36.5. Have 1 unit the under.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 19-7 (LLWWW), Melbourne 16-10 (LLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 12-14 (OUOUU), Melbourne 13-13 (UUUUO)
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*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips: Canterbury

Selections:
1.5 units on Canterbury +1.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1 unit on Under 36.5 at Bet365 at $1.91

Overall: 283 units bet for 288.49 units returned for a POT of 1.94%
Line:133.5 units bet for 142.75 units returned for a POT of 6.93%
Total:149.5 units bet for 145.74 units returned for a POT of -2.52%