The Early Line: Round 8
St George Illawarra have opened 6.5-point favourites in their traditional Anzac Day clash with the Sydney Roosters at Allianz Stadium. The Dragons have dominated this match-up in recent times, winning 11 of 14 and 6 of 7 Anzac Day contests though the Roosters scored a shock 20-12 win in their last meeting. Both teams go well at the SFS with the Dragons winning 4 of 5 at the venue and the Roosters 13 of 17. The Dragons are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 as a favourite between 6.5 and 12 and should have too much discipline for the Roosters. I don't love this bet but 1 unit on the minus suits.
There is a 3 unit under play here if the line is 32 or above. Both these teams have strong under situations. The Dragons are 40-20 under since 2010 and are 14-7 under in the day while the Roosters are 36-23 under since 2010 and are 15-8 under during the day. Only 2 of the last 10 between these two has totalled 34 or more and the Roosters have managed only 16 tries in their last nine matches against the Dragons. A super bet.
COVER FORM: Dragons 4-3 (WWLLW), Roosters 4-3 (WLWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 2-5 (OUOUU), Roosters 3-4 (UOUUO)
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Melbourne enters their Anzac Day clash as a 6.5 to 7.5 point favourites against bogey-team New Zealand. The Storm have won only 3 of 9 against the Warriors and though they have won 21 of 24 at AAMI Park, two of those three losses came against New Zealand. The Warriors have won only 5 of 13 in Australia. Though the Warriors have the edge against the Storm, that was all under Ivan Cleary. The Storm are 19-11 ATS at home and 32-18 ATS as a favourite since 2010 but the Warriors are 19-13 ATS on the road, 14-9 ATS as a road underdog and 21-13 ATS at night. Too close to call with a slight lean Melbourne.
Love the under here. The Storm and the Warriors play low scorers with only 1 of the last 9 totalling more than 33. The Warriors are 21-13 under at night while the Storm are 20-9 under as a home favourite. Bet the under here for 2.5 units if the line is 32 or bigger.
COVER FORM: Melbourne 6-1 (WWWWL), Warriors 3-4 (LWLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 4-3 (UOOOU), Warriors 5-2 (OUUOO)
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In the biggest grudge match of 2012, Canterbury host Manly and are getting 1.5 to 2 points. There aren't many relevant numbers here but I have a real gut feel about the Bulldogs here. Manly have plenty of ins but Des Hasler knows everything about every Manly player. We will have 1 unit on the Bulldogs with 2 start.
This shapes as a hard-nosed grind but no totals present themselves. A lean the under but not quite a play.
COVER FORM: Canterbury 5-2 (WLWLW), Manly 3-4 (LLLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 3-4 (OUOUU), Manly 4-3 (UUOUO)
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Brisbane are laying a heft 12.5 points against the Gold Coast but I have to stick with the Broncos, one of the most reliable betting teams in the NRL. The Broncos have won five straight against the Titans and have kept the Titans to an average of 8.25 points in the last four with the Titans not winning this match-up at Suncorp since 2007. Brisbane are 36-22 ATS dating back to 2010, are 18-11 ATS at home and are 23-14 ATS as a favourite. The Titans have covered just twice this year. Play Brisbane for 1.5 units.
It looks like we have an under play here. Both teams are 5-2 under and none of the last four between these two has tallied 40. Play it for 1 unit if the line is 39.5 or bigger.
COVER FORM: Brisbane 5-2 (WWWLW), Gold Coast 2-5 (LLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 2-5 (UUOUU), Gold Coast 2-5 (UUOUO)
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Souths get 1 point in their clash with North Queensland on the only Saturday affair. The Cows have been good on the road this year, winning all three, but this is their first trip to Sydney and more specifically ANZ Stadium, where they haven't won at since 2006 and have a 4-10 all-time record at. Souths have won 6 of 7 against the Cows including four straight in Sydney. The Bunnies are 17-10 ATS at home since 2010 while the Cowboys are 11-17 ATS on the road over that time. We have to have 1 unit on the Bunnies at the plus.
These two have tended to play high scorers with 4 of the last 5 tallying 48 or more. There should be plenty of points in this one. Let's have 1 unit if the total is 42.5 or lower.
COVER FORM: Souths 2-5 (WLLWL), North Qld 4-3 (WLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Souths 3-4 (OUUUO), North Qld 4-3 (OUUOO)
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Such has been the fall of Canberra that the Raiders are getting 1 point at home against Cronulla. The Sharks have been a dream team for bettors this year, covering on six occasions. They have won 8 of 12 against the Raiders and 5 of 7 at Canberra Stadium and with the Raiders missing a host of key players including playmakers Terry Campese and Josh Dugan, they should extend that record. But this is a trap game for mine. I think Cronulla will get the money but I can't bet.
The numbers probably point a little to the over but I fancy points will be at a premium with the dearth of Canberra playmakers available. No total.
COVER FORM: Canberra 3-4 (LWLWL), Cronulla 6-1 (WWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 3-4 (UOUOU), Cronulla 1-6 (UUUUO)
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In one of the least interesting games of the round, Parramatta host the Wests Tigers with the Eels getting 5.5 to 6 points. The Tigers have won 4 of 6 against Parramatta and the Eels have won just 2 of their last 10 at home. No situation here and not even close to a play.
No total presents itself either. The Tigers can click and score but they don't and in their last three covers they have gone under.
COVER FORM: Parramatta 1-6 (LLWLL), Tigers 3-4 (LLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 5-2 (OOOUO), Tigers 3-4 (OOUUU)
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Newcastle go in just 8.5-point favourites at home against a Penrith team ravaged by injuries and having not scored a point in their last two outings. The Knights have gone 19-7-1 since 1992 against the Panthers and are 5-1 ATS when favoured by more than 6 points since 2010. The Knights need to make a statement and the Panthers can't score. I think this is going to be a blowout. Bet the Knights giving 8.5 for 2.5 units.
The Knights under has been one of the safest bets all season and against a Penrith team that has not scored in 160 minutes of football, it has to be played again. Bet 2 units if the line is 34 or bigger.
COVER FORM:Newcastle 3-4 (LWLWL), Penrith 2-5 (LWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 1-6 (UUOUU), Penrith 3-4 (OOUUU)
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*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips: St George Illawarra, Melbourne, Canterbury, Brisbane, South Sydney, Cronulla, Wests Tigers, Newcastle
Recommended Bets:
1 unit on St George Illawarra -6.5 at $1.91 at Luxbet
3 units on Under (Dra-Roo) if line is 32 or bigger
2.5 units on Under (Mel-War) if line is 32 or bigger
1 unit on Canterbury +2 at $1.91 at Sportsbet
1.5 units on Brisbane -12.5 at $1.91 at Centrebet
1 unit on Under (Bri-GC) if line is 39.5 or bigger
1 unit on South Sydney +1 at $1.87 at Sportsbet
1 unit on Under (Sou-NQ) if line is 42.5 or smaller
2.5 units on Newcastle -8.5 at $1.91 at Luxbet
2 units on Under (New-Pen) if the line is 34 or bigger
Overall: 90 units bet for 101.99 units returned for a POT of 13.32%
Line: 35 units bet for 41.05 units returned for a POT of 17.29%
Total: 55 units bet for 60.94 units returned for a POT of 10.80%
Tags: Rugby League