The Fantasy King: Can You Dig It?

By Mick 'the King' Adams

For almost as long as the Warriors have existed, lazy journalists have been trotting out the tired old reference to “the NRL’s sleeping giant”. It seems the moment they as much as string a couple of wins together hacks are unable to resist it. Such talk has gone into overdrive of late with a five game winning streak propelling them to top eight contention. And to be fair the resurgence of NZ has been quite remarkable. They started the year much like they finished the one before, which, if you remember, was the first time in history a team competing in a draft-free league was undeniably guilty of tanking.

On balance, I’m hoping the Warriors can continue their run and secure the top 8 berth that looked so unlikely a couple of months ago. After all few, if any, teams have been so consistently dangerous from the lower half of the semi-finals bracket (just ask Melbourne). If I was a Warriors fan however I would be absolutely contemptuous of their often risible attitudes towards defence and discipline over the last two seasons. Only the Tigers and Parramatta have conceded more points this year, and the Warriors are averaging nearly 26 missed tackles per game.

They are a perplexing team. Their recent revival has seen no significant improvement to the statistical red flags that pop up everywhere you look. The games beginning at round eleven, the first game of their winning streak, do show a slight reduction in errors (an average of 9 per game, down from over 11 in the first ten rounds), but their penalties conceded and missed tackle count have both actually increased in the winning half of their season (significantly in the case of missed tackles- 29 per game up from 23). Of course, the period has also seen a marked improvement in their attacking stats- their average try and assist counts have almost doubled; there have been jumps in offloads and line breaks too.

In short, the Warriors look ready to pounce, and fantasy players should be watching this space. Only Shaun Johnson (29^th) and Feleti Mateo (43^rd) currently sit within the Supercoach top 50, meaning there is a lot of value at the moment in looking to add some New Zealand players into the fantasy mix. No Warrior averages over 60 points a game at the moment, which is a concern. But there are 15 Warriors averaging over 40, and they are on the improve. As a team, they scored an average of 660 fantasy points per game through round 10, which is fairly ordinary. That has improved to 840 in their last seven matches however.

Of course, that figure is skewed by a crazy statistical outlier- their round 12 mauling of the Broncos. That match, in which Kevin Locke recorded a Supercoach total of 148, saw a further six Warriors break 80, with the team as a whole posting 1121. That’s 400 points better than their average for the rest of the season. While this may skew the shape of the statistics as a whole, it also demonstrates the dangers posed by an in-form Warriors outfit.

Central to their success has been the return to form of that most mercurial of Warriors, Shaun Johnson. The comparisons to Benji Marshall had all but been forgotten in the wake of a terrible 2012, but Johnson had everyone rewatching those touch footy YouTube videos as he ironically did the business against Marshall in the soon-to-be-former Tiger’s house. [side note: is anybody actually feeling sympathy for Marshall that his manager tried to drum up last week? The bloke is three years past his best, playing for a team with (inexplicably, given their mediocre roster) salary cap issues who wisely decided to baulk at tying their future to an ageing, underperforming 5/8. Seems like a move is best for all parties – Benji gets a chance at a final big payday, the Tigers can prepare for the future.]

A while back I looked at the difference winning makes to the fantasy scores of playmakers. In Johnson’s case, the difference is glaring. He has played in eight wins and nine losses this year. He has been poor in the latter, averaging only 41. In those wins on the other hand he’s as good as any half in the comp with an average of 72. If you’re on board the Johnson wagon, better hope for the Warriors winning ways to continue. If they can go on to make the eight, expect some massive scores to come from their number 7.

And how are those finals chances looking? In a word, muddled. The most damning indictment against NZ this year is that they are 3 and 7 against top 8 opposition, and have four of their last seven matches against teams certain or likely to be playing September football. That includes Melbourne, Cronulla and Manly in succession beginning in Auckland on Sunday. Lose all three and the charge is over before it really got going. Knowing the Warriors, if that does happen they are likely to put the cue back on the rack for the year. Get through those three games with a couple of wins on the other hand, and a fairly soft run home of Penrith, Gold Coast, Canberra (a game which could have major bearing on the top 8 chances of both teams) and St George awaits. If they are alive for this run, expect Johnson, Mateo, Konrad Hurrell and Elijah Taylor to figure prominently fantasy-wise, with Simon Mannering and Ben Matulino also ones to watch.