The Fantasy King: Looking to Round 2
By Mick Adams
Don’t panic. That is the advice many fantasy owners should be heeding after a weekend of absolute carnage, with below par scores across the board. If your team was made up of the top 17-ranked fantasy players (omitting the suspended Isaac Luke) and each one of them played to his 2011 average, you could expect to pick up nearly 1200 points (not including the captain’s double score). The reality? Just over one thousand. In fact, of those 17 only five players managed to break their average score. This phenomenon continued NRL-wide, with a number of top players recording poor or average scores. It wasn’t all bad news though, and here are some of the main winners and losers from the opening round of 2012.
THE WINNERS
James Graham
First weekend of footy, first opportunity for me to eat my words. I recommended against buying the Pommy import last week, feeling that his price seemed a bit high for an untested prop forward. However, the mail regarding his incredible work rate seems on the money, and he looks like a must-have. The only downside is his effect on the scores of the other Bulldog forwards. Last year’s front row gun Aiden Tolman managed only 51, while David Stagg fared even worse, racking up a meagre 38. Owners of either of those players should be looking to swap with Graham. Dene Halatau also disappointed a little with 55, however you’d take that every week if you own him in the wing/centre position.
Tony Williams
T-Rex was a frustrating fantasy buy last year, getting a score high in the sixties one week and barely cracking twenty the next, before he finally put us out of our misery by sustaining a long-term injury. I couldn’t resist taking a chance on him again this year though, as he is once again available at wing/centre. His score was no doubt inflated by a mid-game injury to Glenn Stewart, giving Williams some extra game time, but if he stays on the park he could be this year’s Alex Glenn. At under 200k he’s a steal, and is likely to rise in price substantially if he can produce similar performances in the next couple of weeks.
Shaun Fensom
Player of the round. Fensom owners will be cheering that at least one fantasy gun came out guns blazing. There was some doubt about whether he’d be able to replicate his 2011 form early on, given he had pre-season shoulder issues and was slow out of the gates last year, but he well and truly put those fears to rest with the weekend’s highest fantasy score.
Trent Merrin
The big Dragon had a cracker of a game against Newcastle, and it was reflected in his fantasy score. The Dragons aren’t as deep in the forwards as they have been in years past, and with Dan Hunt sidelined for a few more weeks, Merrin could be worth a look (although I’d probably hold off to see how he scores in Round Two). If he does keep this form up he is sure to come into Origin calculations again however, so it might be wise to ride the wave for a few weeks and then trade up or down depending on your needs.
THE LOSERS
Michael Gordon
You’ve got to feel for the poor bloke, who faces a lengthy spell in the grandstands after breaking his fibula. Having lost his battle with Lachlan Coote for the Panthers fullback spot, Gordon’s fantasy stocks had already plummeted, and now those who kept the faith will have no choice but to turf the best back in fantasy.
Alex Glenn/Matt Gillett
The back row bottleneck is in full effect at the Broncos, and it’s the two G’s who are paying the price. Corey Parker was his usual self against the Eels on Friday night, while Ben Hannant and Sam Thaiday both had big games in the front row. With the promising Josh McGuire also in the mix it seems wise to steer clear of the other Bronco forwards, at least until Origin time.
Robbie Farah
The Tigers may have got the points (just) but Farah was nowhere to be found. He’s got the odd dud game in him in fantasy terms, and Farah owners need to be wary of this. He is likely to back up with a 70 or 80 point game sooner rather than later however, so don’t despair just yet.
The North Queensland Cowboys
It was a diabolical performance from them on Saturday night, resulting in some atrocious fantasy scores. James Tamou top scored with 54, while Matthew Scott at 50 was the only other player to bring up a half century. At the top of the shame list is none other than Jonothan Thurston, who could only manage a meagre 17. However, we all know that everything at the Cowboys revolves around JT, which means his scores are sure to bounce back. Friday night’s clash with the Broncos looms as a big test in more ways than one.
ROOKIE ROUND UP
Those looking for this year’s Daly Cherry Evans would have been disheartened by the returns of the Round One debutants on the weekend, and unless Tautau Moga lives up to the hype we may have to lower our expectations this year. That said, the beauty of rookies is their rock bottom Break Even score. Even though none of the debutants broke 40 points, the majority will see a price rise regardless.
James Tedesco
It seems almost crass to discuss the young Tiger in fantasy terms. Nothing in football could be more devastating than suffering a season ending injury twenty minutes into your first grade debut, and we can only wish him the best during his long recuperation. The poor bloke. That being said, the show must go on for the rest of us, and after being named at fullback for the Tigers this Friday, Tom Humble could be a straight replacement in a similar price range.
Adam Reynolds
Topped the fantasy points count among the rookies in round one, and was quite impressive at halfback for the Rabbitohs. The big question- goal kicking duties- will be answered against the Storm this Sunday with the return of Isaac Luke. Given that over a third of Reynolds’ 37 points came from goals, this is a massive issue. The naming of Luke on the bench would suggest the youngster will have first dibs, which not only elevates his status, but lessons Luke’s. Without the kicking, Luke goes from an 80 point player to a 60 point player, so his owners will be watching on with interest.
by Mick Adams
