The Fantasy King: Round 19
By Mick Adams
Finally, the tyranny of the Origin period comes to a close, setting the stage for a massive month of fantasy. Naturally, we haven’t emerged from the last couple of months unscathed, with Paul Gallen and Jarryd Hayne the most notable casualty ward members, giving fantasy players sizeable headaches. The hold or trade dilemma is another debate entirely, but for those who do decide to free up some cash for healthy point-scoring guns, the task is daunting. With trades at a premium at this time of year, a false step can be fatal. While the forwards pick themselves, the fullback position is a gamble wherever you land:
Brett Stewart
Looking to replace the underperforming Corey Norman in my squad, I had earmarked Stewart as a serious contender. He’s been quite productive of late after a fairly indifferent opening half of the season. And with the Manly machine rolling along nicely, a try scoring demon like Stewart could prove the difference in those head to head fantasy grudge matches (like the one I’ve got this weekend- you’re going down Blake).
Therefore, the news that he has been ruled out of Manly’s clash with the Knights on Saturday throws a fairly hefty spanner in the works. Although the injury is considered to be minor, and he is due back in Round 20, with an injury track record like Stewart’s one must tread carefully. I’ve spoken before about the virtues of weighing up risk/reward and bypassing physically fragile players, now I’m going to try my best to take my own advice and not punt on Stewart.
Jason Nightingale
The decision to shift Jason Nightingale to fullback at the Dragons, forcing Brett Morris back to the wing, seems odd. But then again, it seemed odd to put Morris there over Nightingale in the first place given the latter’s undoubted class and strength under the high ball. The move could pay big fantasy dividends for Nightingale, who is dirt cheap at the moment. It’s fair to say that he is cheap for a reason however, as his scores have been fairly average on the whole. The switch to the back could definitely change this, and it’s hard not to be tempted by the juicy unders on offer.
The caveat is that the Dragons have the worst attack in the competition statistically. This is a massive concern. Given that selecting the right backs for your fantasy team is a lucky dip at the best of times, it is hard to take a gamble on a player from a team that can’t score points. Nightingale is a far, far better player than Manly’s David Williams. Like ridiculously better. Yet the latter scored four tries in forty minutes of football on the weekend and cracked a fantasy ton for his troubles. The Dragons have scored four tries in a half just twice this season, the last time coming in Round 5. In fact, there have been only four games this year to feature that many Dragons tries. I’d love to draft Nightingale in, but gee it’s risky.
Barba vs Slater
Obviously a question only for those looking to offload Jarryd Hayne, or players with an inexplicably large war chest to play with, as both players will cost you. No doubt in part due to Slater’s continued unavailability, Barba has been a popular Supercoach trade this week. And it’s hard to argue with the move really, given the way he has electrified the NRL this year.
For mine though, a fit Slater will always be the better option, although all eyes should be on the Storm’s clash with the Cowboys. Crippled by the Origin period, a failure to recover their swagger could start to affect Slater’s fantasy scores. Comparatively unaffected by Origin, the Bulldogs on are primed for an assault on the minor premiership. If they do give it a shake, expect some big scores from Barba.
In summation, you can’t really go wrong with either.
Darius Boyd
I mentioned Boyd as a potential cheap purchase a couple of weeks ago after he scored well two weeks in a row for the first time this season. He served up some more rubbish against the Bunnies though, making it very hard to recommend him. However, there were some signs in that game that the Knights attack was finally starting to gel, despite the lopsided scorecard. I don’t think I could pull the trigger on a move to draft in Boyd, but I have a feeling he’s got some big scores in him at the tail end of the season.
Jake Mullaney
If there’s a silver lining to Hayne’s injury, it’s the opportunity given to the twenty odd thousand Supercoach players still saddled with the lame tiger James Tedesco. Mullaney was Parramatta’s third highest scorer in his first grade debut, and seems like a no brainer trade move. With varying reports as to the seriousness of Hayne’s injury however, it would be foolish to make the move this week, as Mullaney is unlikely to hold his place upon Hayne’s return. Waiting a week also provides the added bonus of determining whether his big haul was just a flash in the pan.
One More Thing
If writing this each week has taught me anything, it’s that I don’t know shit about shit. A week ago I described Edrick Lee as “a middling fantasy proposition”, then watched as he put on a hat-trick against the Storm in one of the weekend’s best scores. I questioned the premiership credentials of Souths, only to see them record a scintillating win against the Knights. It’s harder than it looks.
While I am certain of Lee’s potential, the Souths question is an interesting one. They have a very soft run home, with only the Eagles and Sharks likely to provide the testing material (they play the Tigers as well, but who knows with that mob) before the semis. I’ll be watching with interest to see how they fare in those games, which should go a long way towards solving the puzzle. There is no doubt that the talent is there. If they can stay healthy they are surely in with a big chance of at least winning a playoff match for the first time in a generation.
