The Forgive Files – February 16

This week’s edition of The Forgive Files takes us to the February 16 meetings at Flemington and Rosehill.

Flemington

Prince Of Capers: He may have finished down the track when sixth (beaten 5.8 lengths), but this was a reasonable effort given his historic trends. He now has eight first-up runs for no wins and one placing, compared to nine wins and 13 placings from 40 starts thereafter. Moreover, his best form is on slow or heavy tracks – five wins and five placings from 15 combined starts, compared to four wins and nine placings from 32 starts on good or dead tracks.  

You Can Dance: Finishing out the back yesterday brings her record at the 1400-metre trip to no wins and two placings from six starts. Including her record over longer trips (1500 and 1600 metres), her record stands at one win and two placings from eight attempts. Contrast this to her record over trips shorter than 1400 metres (three wins and a second from just four runs) and it seems clear to me that she would be far better suited with a drop back to the 1100-1200-metre range (where she won twice to commence this campaign).

Misty Eyes: Despite being sired by VRC Derby winner Blackfriars, his last two starts imply that jumping up to the mile and middle-distance caper is simply not his go. His two starts over a mile or further have resulted in a pair of unplaced runs and a combined margin of defeat exceeding 10 lengths. Compare this to his record over 1400 metres or shorter, which includes four wins and three placings from just nine starts. He gets back in running and can sprint home well over shorter trips, so be prepared to forgive him if he does revert to suitable races.

Rosehill

Soledad: His effort as a $3.50 on Saturday appeared very disappointing on paper, but scratch the surface and there are some excuses. He was third-up last preparation and his best performances are invariably when fresh – he has a combined record of three wins and four placings from eight starts when first or second-up, compared to one win and five placings thereafter. In addition, he really needs a wet track to be at his best (four wins and five placings from nine starts on slow or heavy tracks, compared to no wins and four placings from eight starts on good or dead tracks). When racing fresh on a wet track, he can be bet again.

Number One Gun: His effort two starts back (when losing a photo to Magic Weekend) implied that he could ‘get’ 1400 metres. However, that was a weak race, and all four of his career wins to date have been over 1100 or 1200 metres. Much like Soledad, he also needs a genuinely wet track (three wins and one placing from five starts on slow or heavy tracks, compared to one win and four placings from 10 starts on good or dead tracks). His best case scenario: 1100 or 1200 metres, wet track, third-up or later. Forgive him if this scenario presents itself.

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo