The NFL Lines – Week 1

A preseason minus lockouts (although retaining a contract holdout or two from certain individuals) has come and gone, and now the time for talk has ended.  Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham have given you their preseason prognostications – now the week-to-week battle with bookmakers commences. Are you ready for some football???

CB

We’re going to change it up from last year’s structure. Instead of having to trawl through inane banter on many of the 16 games that we have no interest in betting, this year we will preview only the games where a recommended bet is in play. Sometimes you’ll hear the same arguments made twice, broken-record style. On other occasions, we’ll either deviate in games bet or take opposite sides of the same game. Irrespective, it’ll be more fun than having to scroll through the pair of us trying to find unique ways to say ‘no bet’.

 

NT Recommended Bets

ST LOUIS @ DETROIT: 1 UNIT ON DETROIT -7 AT $2.00 (LUXBET, FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET) 

I am not high on the Lions this year but I see the Rams as a bottom-four team who will be slow starters in a new system under Jeff Fisher. The Lions have a high-powered offense and the Rams have not covered in their last seven as an underdog of 3.5-to-7 points. This game shapes as being rather one-sided.

MIAMI @ HOUSTON: 1 UNIT ON MIAMI +11.5 AT $2.00 (CENTREBET)

The Dolphins are going to be a real force this year while I remain unconvinced the Texans are as good as they are made out to be – they will do well to make the playoffs, let alone reach the AFC Championship game as some pundits suggest. The Dolphins have covered their last eight as a road underdog of 10.5 or more. Their defence is good and will keep this close.

NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE: 1 UNIT ON TENNESEE +5.5 AT $1.91 (CENTREBET) 

The 5.5 points at home is worth a speck. The key to this is Chris Johnson. He can have a field day if back to his 2010 form. The Pats defence is horrendous and the Titans have a good enough defence to at least limit the Titans. The points are certainly worth a small play here … let's hope Jake Locker can play.

CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY: 1 UNIT ON TAMPA BAY +2.5 AT $1.90 (BET 365) 

Tampa Bay are a better team than the Panthers and are getting points at home. Cha-ching. Cam Newton faces the sophomore slump, Josh Freeman is fit and healthy. The points at home.

PITTSBURGH @ DENVER: 2 UNITS ON PITTSBURGH +1.0 AT $2.02 (LUXBET, FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET) 

Pittsburgh should be a 6-point favourite here. In no way do the Broncos match-up well. Even if Manning does have a good year and the Broncos do overachieve, it will take time. And he is going to get no reprieve against a Steelers’ defence that remains elite. Bet of the week.

SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND: 1 UNIT ON SAN DIEGO +1.0 AT $1.97 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET) 

I am shocked that the Chargers are outsiders here, the line suggesting that the Chargers are only a marginally stronger than the Raiders. The Raiders have covered five of six against the Chargers but they are a big concern this year, particularly with their new coach. The Chargers are capable of a blowout to finish week one.

 

CB Recommended Bets

DALLAS @ NEW YORK GIANTS:  1 UNIT ON NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 AT $1.91 (CENTREBET)  

The last six opening round matches involving defending Super Bowl champs have all gone the way of the team with the title. In fact, only one of the six ‘challengers’ would have covered a four-point spread. Throw in the fact that I think the Giants are a superior team to the Cowboys and this one was easy. 

MIAMI @ HOUSTON: 0.5 UNITS ON MIAMI +11.5 AT $2.00 (CENTREBET)

Miami are my 9-7 sleeper this season, so I’m obligated to take them with a double-digit start. They may have gone 6-10 last season, but they lost only three games by 12 or more points for the year and conceded more than 24 points on only four occasions. This game smacks of Houston grinding out a 20-14 win and people unnecessarily exiting the Texans bandwagon. My only concern is a rookie QB on the road against a strong defence, so I’ll cut it back to a half-unit bet. 

NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE:  0.5 UNITS ON TENNESEE +5.5 AT $1.91 (CENTREBET) 

This feels like a trap game for the Patriots. We learned from the playoffs last season (and indeed, a few games during the regular season) that you can match it with the Patriots if you have a strong running game and a tough defence. Remember too that the Titans nearly took down New Orleans (a very similar team in style to the Patriots) in Week 14 of last season.

ATLANTA @ KANSAS CITY: 1 UNIT ON ATLANTA -3.0 AT $2.10 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)

I have the Falcons going 12-4 this season and the Chiefs going 4-12, prompting everyone to remember that Romeo Crennel is an excellent co-ordinator but was (and is likely to once again be) a subpar head coach. Leopards don’t change their spots.

PITTSBURGH @ DENVER:  0.5 UNITS ON PITTSBURGH ML AT $2.10 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET) 

I’m not quite as enthusiastic as Nick, but if the Steelers are going to be a 13-3 team as I’ve projected, they need to pick up the win here. Nonetheless, I’d like to see Peyton Manning in a serious game against an elite defence before deciding whether to heavily side with or against the Broncos this season.

SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND: 1 UNIT ON SAN DIEGO ML AT $2.02 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET) 

The case for betting against the Chargers: they love screwing up the starts of seasons. The case for betting on the Chargers: they love to become a ‘flat-track bully’ against poor sides (I think Oakland will fit that bill in 2012) and run up a score. I’m opting for the latter effect to prevail.

 

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo