The NFL Lines – Week 13
We’re back! Not in the gambling sense (Nick has been just ahead of the count all year, while Cliff is still going down in flames), but in both the geographical and word count senses. At any rate, there are some important games this week from the post season perspective, so let’s get stuck into it.
Results from Week 12 tips
NT – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 5.89 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +47%
CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 4.02 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +34%
Total – 7 selections, 7 units bet, return of 9.91 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +42%
Overall Results
NT – 52 selections, 60.5 units bet, return of 62.79 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +4%
CB – 34 selections, 32.5 units bet, return of 23.59 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -27%
Total – 53 selections, 93 units bet, return of 86.38 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -7%
NT Recommended Bets
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI: 1 UNIT ON MIAMI +9.0 AT $1.74 (CENTREBET)
It is another week and another bet on the Dolphins. We get the Fins right more often than not here and with 9 points at home they again look a good play. The Patriots have been rolling but haven't faced a defence of Miami's quality. They have been a little off of late but last week's win gives them big confidence. They should keep this tight.
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE: 1 UNIT ON HOUSTON -6.0 AT $1.91 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)
The Titans are a rotten bunch of pretenders. The Texans are rolling and should put a number of the team from Rocky Top. God knows, it's so dry on Rocky Top that they have to get their corn from a jar and their wins rare. Happy to lay the 6 here.
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER: 1 UNIT ON TAMPA BAY +8.0 AT $1.80 (CENTREBET)
Tampa Bay are really good. Denver aren't bad either. They are vulnerable to a good passing attack though and that is what the Bucs have. In an expected high scorer, I'd be surprised if there was more than a touchdown in this.
CB Recommended Bets
INDIANAPOLIS @ DETROIT: 1 UNIT ON INDIANAPOLIS +4.5 AT $1.95 (CENTREBET)
Really? A 7-4 team getting 4.5 points on the road to a 4-7 team? Granted, the Colts are only 2-3 on the road this season (including three pretty major losses). The fact remains that if you remove the losses to the Bears and Pats (both sitting on 8-3 records), the Colts have won seven of nine overall and two out of three on the road. Meanwhile, the Lions are 4-7 overall, 2-3 at home and have a grand total of one win by five points or more this season. I can’t have them as clear favourites.
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO: 1 UNIT ON CHICAGO -3.5 AT $1.93 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)
There are a number of things to like about this play. A west coast team travelling most of the way across the country for a 1PM ET (or 10AM Pacific Time) match. A team who is 5-1 at home (three wins by 18 points or more, and conceding only 13 points per game) hosting a team who is 1-5 on the road and averaging only 16 points scored per game in that scenario. Potentially another game where Jason Campbell and Josh McCown do nothing more for the Bears than hold clipboards. I think the line for this game should be around a touchdown, and will happily take the small minus.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
An interesting trend at play in the Colts v Lions game:
NFL teams coming off a loss in which they scored 30+ points are 45-13-1 ATS when favourites vs a team with a winning record.
Lions have a bad record but some close losses to some good opponents in there (losing by 4 to the Packers and 3 to the Texans last two weeks), now they are at home, with a lot to play for.
The have a strong pass defence (like the Browns who the Colts beat by 4, and the Browns struggle to score points).
The Colts have been blessed to play the woeful Jags twice to pad their record, they are doing good things but the only good side they have beaten was the Packers and that with the Colts coming off the bye and sides have historically done well off a bye.
At this stage I'm not betting the game but lean Detriot, their records are IMO misleading.