The NFL Lines – Week 14
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Nick keeps backing Miami, while Cliff keeps being the kiss of death for the Bears (they are 1-4 ATS in the games he has backed them, despite sitting in equal first in the NFC North). With the playoff picture still far from resolved, the boys return with their thoughts on week 14.
Results from Week 13 tips
NT – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 4.55 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +52%
CB – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 1.95 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -3%
Total – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 6.50 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +30%
Overall Results
NT – 55 selections, 63.5 units bet, return of 67.34 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +6%
CB – 36 selections, 34.5 units bet, return of 25.54 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -26%
Total – 91 selections, 98 units bet, return of 92.88 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -5%
NT Recommended Bets
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA: 1 UNIT ON CHICAGO -2.5 AT $1.83 (CENTREBET)
It is hard not to like the Bears in this one – the Vikings are fading big time with just two wins and one cover in their last seven. The Bears were disappointing at home against Seattle last week but the Seahawks are the real deal. The Bears have won and covered the last six against the Vikings, winning by an average of 16.17 over that time. The Bears should be spotting more than a field goal here.
MIAMI @ SAN FRANCISCO: 1 UNIT ON MIAMI +10.0 AT $1.95 (CENTREBET)
It was very disappointing to see the 49ers throw away a game that should have been won last week by playing Colin Kaepernick ahead of Alex Smith. The Dolphins got a real lucky cover last week – kicking a field goal with less than a minute to go on second down when down by 10 to cover the 7.5 – but have made the number their last two against good teams. Their defence can cause Kaepernick trouble and this should be a low scorer.
HOUSTON @ NEW ENGLAND: 1 UNIT ON HOUSTON +3.5 AT $1.87 (CENTREBET)
So it seems I may be wrong about the Pats – but I will happily take the 3.5 about an 11-1 team who can throw the ball and expose New England's horrid secondary. This is a very nice play in what shapes as a high scorer.
CB Recommended Bets
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA: 1 UNIT ON ATLANTA -3.0 AT $1.83 (LUXBET)
The Falcons are 11-1 overall and 5-1 on the road. The Panthers are 3-9 overall and 1-5 at home. Atlanta’s weakness so far this season (only 3.8 YPC rushing the ball) shouldn’t be exposed by Carolina’s worse-than-average run defence (conceding 4.4 YPC), while their pass defence is sneakily good (conceding a QB rating of only 76.3, putting them ahead of the Niners and Seahawks). How are they only laying three?
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS: 1 UNIT ON INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 AT $1.95 (LUXBET)
The Jake Locker era is off to a shaky start in Tennessee, and now they have to travel to Indy to take on the Colts (8-4 overall and 5-1 at home), Andrew Luck and the significant momentum of team riding the ‘Chuckstrong’ factor to a potential wild card berth. With two games against the Texans left on their schedule, the Colts need a win here and another at Kansas City in week 16. I thought this line should be 7.5, so am happy to lay the points here.
PHILADELPHIA @ TAMPA BAY: 1 UNIT ON TAMPA BAY -7.5 AT $1.96 (LUXBET)
Possibly the most amazing stat of the year: the preseason NFC East-favourite Eagles are three field goals away from being 0-12 right now. They’ve lost eight straight and are 1-5 on the road (including three losses by more than 14 points). Meanwhile, the Bucs are just outside the final NFC wild card spot right now and might have to win out from here to reach the playoffs. They concede a league-best 3.4 YPC on the ground, which means that the Eagles will have to look to rookie Nick Foles to throw them to victory. I just don’t see it.
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY: 1 UNIT ON GREEN BAY -6.5 AT $1.91 (LUXBET)
A 4-8 dome team who concede over 26 points per game heads to Lambeau Field in December to take on Aaron Rodgers and a resurgent Packers team (won six of their last seven overall and their last five at home) who are not only back in the race for the NFC North, but only half a game behind the projected two-seed and first round playoff bye recipient. I’m really surprised that this line is less than a touchdown.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
