The NFL Lines – Week 2

The Cowboys, Redskins and Niners caused upsets, the Browns lost in a heartbreaking manner befitting a Cleveland sporting organisation, and Peyton Manning made those who had concerns about his health (team Making The Nut included) eat humble pie for a few solid days. How much has one week of action changed the landscape? Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham thrash this issue out.

CB

As we covered in the preseason predictions, almost every year, the following three things happen:

(1) A team jumps up from six wins or less the previous season to grab a playoff spot (2011 Bengals and Lions, 2010 Chiefs and Bucs, 2009 Bengals and Packers, etc.);

(2) One team gets a first round playoff bye after failing to make the playoffs at all the year prior (2011 Niners, 2010 Falcons, 2009 Saints, 2008 Panthers, etc.); and

(3) One team drops out of the playoffs altogether after getting a first round bye the year prior (2011 Bears, 2010 Vikings, 2009 Panthers, 2008 Patriots and Packers, etc.).

This year I predicted that the Dolphins, Chargers and Ravens would fill those three categories. At least two of those predictions look terrible already, while the jury is still out on the Chargers  – with Peyton Manning looking in vintage form (and like the phrase ‘spinal fusion’ had never accompanied his name), the AFC West has become a substantially tougher division to win.

At any rate, after the opening week I think we can narrow the contenders under each category down to the following:

(1) Redskins, Vikings (still doubtful, but at least they’re 1-0), Bucs

(2) Jets, Chargers, Cowboys, Bears (with a strong lean to the Chargers and Bears)

(3) I have no idea now, remembering that it has to be one of the 2011 playoff bye teams (Pats, Ravens, Packers and Niners). On week one form alone, the Packers looked the worst – but I can’t put the pen through them just yet.

For the first few weeks I might keep revisiting this list – you never know which bandwagon may be worth hopping on (or off) sometime soon.

 

Results from Week 1 tips

NT – 6 selections, 7 units bet, return of 3.87 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -45%

CB – 6 selections, 4.5 units bet, return of 4.12 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -8%

Total – 12 selections, 11.5 units bet, return of 7.99 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -31%

 

NT Recommended Bets

CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY: 1 UNIT ON CHICAGO +6.0 at $1.96 (LUXBET)

The Packers looked, well, ordinary in Week 1. The 49ers, admittedly, are a good team but the biggest worry with the Packers was how easily Alex Smith carved them to shreds. The 49ers also managed to run Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter for 6.12 yards per carry. Matt Forte is a much more dangerous tailback and Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall looked good together in week one. The Bears can win this straight-out though the single win in the last seven against the Packers is a concern.

TAMPA BAY @ NEW YORK GIANTS: 1.5 UNITS ON TAMPA BAY +9.0 at $1.80 (CENTREBET)

The Giants are not as good as advertised. The first week can always be overhyped but I forecast a downturn for the champions and there was nothing last week that had me change my mind. I was also high on the Bucs, who pulled off a nice win against the Panthers. Josh Freeman needs to improve but the Bucs defence can certainly keep the Giants offense in check. This should be close.

OAKLAND @ MIAMI: 2 UNITS ON MIAMI +3.0 at $1.80 (BET365)

Let's hope Oakland's long snapper goes down again here! There is no doubt Miami were very disappointing last week – but Oakland don't present the upside Houston have and the Raiders should never be laying points on the road. Nothing has changed at the Raiders – they are still ill-disciplined and without a threat outside of Darren McFadden. The Dolphins may struggle to score points but they should hold the Raiders low.

DALLAS @ SEATTLE: 1 UNIT ON SEATTLE +3.0 at $2.00 (SPORTSBET)

This is very much a line based on Week 1 results: Dallas upsetting the Giants, Seattle going down at Arizona. The Seahawks are certainly better than that. Over the last two seasons, the Seahawks are 11-6 ATS at home, while Dallas are 1-5 ATS over the same time as a road favourite. Seattle should bounce back.

DENVER @ ATLANTA: 1 UNIT ON ATLANTA -3.0 at $1.87 (SPORTINGBET)

Denver were much better than expected in the first week. Peyton Manning was allowed to do as he pleased and as he has often shown in the past, it pleases him to win. He should still be up for Atlanta. But the Falcons are the real deal this year with the wideout spread particularly exciting. The loss of Brent Grimes is a big concern for Atlanta but there is no way these two teams are even – and that is what betting suggests.

 

CB Recommended Bets

CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY: 1 UNIT ON CHICAGO +6.0 AT $1.96 (LUXBET)

I would have marked this game Packers -4 had it been played last week, and have wound that in to Packers -3. Former Bear Cedric Benson ran for only 18 yards on nine carries as the primary Green Bay running back last week, Matt Forte and Michael Bush combined for 122 yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries against Indy, while Gore and Hunter gashed the Packers’ rushing defence for 153 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries last week – somehow, this all seems relevant.

NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH: 1 UNIT ON PITTSBURGH -6.0 AT $1.93 (LUXBET)

Where to start here? The Steelers are too good a team to drop to 0-2 and in Pittsburgh, they pose a much greater challenge than the Bills do anywhere (shaking my head sadly). Ben Roethlisberger is significantly better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Mark Sanchez is significantly worse than a healthy Peyton Manning. CJ Spiller ran for 169 yards and a touchdown in just 14 carries in New York. And finally, you just know that the Sanchez/ Tebow QB controversy has to commence soon – why not after a road loss against a traditionally strong defensive team?

TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO: 1 UNIT ON SAN DIEGO -6.0 AT $1.92 (LUXBET)

The Chargers were unspectacular but rarely in danger of losing on the road last week – as with many teams, they’re much tougher to beat at home. For Tennessee, Jake Locker is questionable with a shoulder injury, while Chris Johnson ran for a total of only four yards on 11 carries last week against a shaky Pats run defence, extending on his poor 2011 form. When you consider that the Chargers held McFadden to 32 yards on 15 carries last week, it’s tough to see where the Titans will get their points from on the road.

 

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo