The NFL Lines – Week 4
The Niners lost for the first time in 2012, the Saints keep on losing and the refereeing (hopefully) reached its nadir in the Seahawks-Packers Monday Night Football game. With the contenders and pretenders slowly identifying themselves, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham jump into their preview of week four.
CB
I’d go for a lengthy preamble here, but with (a) the Cardinals sitting at 3-0; and (b) yours truly preparing to back them for a second straight week, the Mayans have me a little worried. Immediately after the column goes up, I’m off to the nearest bomb shelter with a truckload of canned goods. See you in 2013… maybe…..
Results from Week 3 tips
NT – 5 selections, 7 units bet, return of 5.71 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -18%
CB – 2 selections, 2 units bet, return of 1.95 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -3%
Total – 7 selections, 9 units bet, return of 7.66 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -15%
Overall Results
NT – 16 selections, 20.5 units bet, return of 19.75 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -4%
CB – 11 selections, 9.5 units bet, return of 9.92 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +4%
Total – 27 selections, 30 units bet, return of 29.67 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -1%
NT Recommended Bets
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA: 1 UNIT ON ATLANTA -7.0 @ $1.94 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)
My thoughts in the pre-season were that the Atlanta Falcons were a high quality Super Bowl team and that the Carolina Panthers would stink. That is how it appears to be playing out. The Falcons have a highly talented offense and a defence that gets the job done. The Panthers are struggling behind Cam Newton, who cannot play with a deficit. The Falcons have covered 6 of 7 v the Panthers and should be able to make the touchdown number.
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY: 2 UNITS ON SAN DIEGO +1.0 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET)
How the hell are the Kansas City Chiefs favourites in this? They have been flogged by the Bills and Falcons and got lucky against the Saints last week while the Chargers took a beating against Atlanta after winning at Oakland and against the Titans. The Chiefs might be the worst team in football. Their offense is poor but their defence really stinks … and the Chargers can pile on the points. The Chargers should win and win well.
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON: 1 UNIT ON TENNESSEE +12.0 @ $1.95 (CENTREBET)
I may have been wrong about the Texans – they have started 3-0 and have covered all three. They are moving the ball well and their defence is strong. But the Titans are better than what we have seen. They have covered 3 of 5 in Houston and may have reached a turning point with their big win against the Lions. I expect this to be a hard-fought encounter.
MIAMI @ ARIZONA: 1 UNIT ON MIAMI +6.0 @ $1.95 (CENTREBET)
We are on the Dolphins … again. After a big non-cover in week one, they rolled the Raiders in week two before getting a push against the Jets after missing a game-winning field goal shot. The Cardinals have got every pundit barred up but Kevin Kolb is still the quarterback and I still think the Dolphins have a better than average defence. No Reggie Bush is a big worry but I still think they can cover six against a Cards team that will see its bubble burst soon.
CHICAGO @ DALLAS: 1.5 UNITS ON CHICAGO +3.5 @ $1.87 (CENTREBET)
The Bears are back, with another strong defensive performance against St Louis that has them right at the top of the race for the NFC North. Against a Dallas offense that has been struggling against good defences, getting killed in Seattle before just rolling Tampa Bay. Jay Cutler just needs to stay upright for this number to cover.
CB Recommended Bets
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA: 1 UNIT ON ATLANTA -7.0 AT $1.94 (FLEMINGTON SPORTSBET)
The Falcons have a 14-3 home record since start of 2010. Cam Newton 7-12 in his career to date (including a 3-6 road record) and has five picks to two touchdowns so far in 2012. Matt Ryan has completed 72 per cent of his passes in the opening three weeks, with eight touchdowns and just one pick. Meanwhile, Atlanta's pass defence is conceding only 6.2 yards per pass attempt and leads the league with seven interceptions (to just two touchdowns conceded). I think this is a 'statement game' for the home side.
NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY: 1 UNIT ON GREEN BAY -7.5 AT $1.87 (CENTREBET)
The Packers have played three strong defensive units (the Niners, Bears and Seahawks) and now face a must-win home game against the Saints, who cannot stop anybody at the moment. The Saints are 5-4 on the road since the start of last season, while the Packers are 16-3 (including a playoff loss) at home since the start of 2010. Finally, the Saints would have already failed to cover a +7.5 spread against Washington and Carolina, before covering (but still losing) to the Chiefs at home. I just can’t see how they go to Lambeau and hang tough with the Packers, who will be out for revenge after a horrendous late call in their loss to Seattle last week.
MIAMI @ ARIZONA: 1 UNIT ON ARIZONA -6.0 AT $1.94 (SPORTSBET)
The Cardinals have now won 10 of their last 12 games overall and 12 of 18 at home since 2010 (despite two poor seasons before a strong start in 2012). They've conceded only 5.9 yards per passing attempt and two passing touchdowns in total to Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Michael Vick thus far – now they get Ryan Tannehill (one TD, four picks, 58.2 QB rating). Miami would have had a clear edge in the running game if Bush was playing, but with youngsters Tannehill and RB Daniel Thomas carrying the can, I struggle to see how they come up with a winning score on the road.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
