The NFL Lines – Week 5

After four weeks we’re down to three unbeaten teams (the Texans, Falcons and Cardinals) and only two teams without a win (the Browns and incredibly, the Saints).

CB

The real refs came back last week… and spent most of the Saints-Packers game screwing over the home side, along with my bet on the minus. I’m still bitter.

Even worse was the fact that the Cards and Packers faced ‘first and goal’ situations from the 2-yard line when leading (Cards leading 14-13, Packers 21-17). Kolb threw a pick, the back-up Packers QB fumbled (Rodgers was temporarily off the field have his eye checked after being poked by a defender) and the ensuing Dolphin and Saints drives both resulted in TDs – a terrible pair of double-digit-point swings to deal with in the space of a few minutes for yours truly.

Anyway, to get things back on track I revisited my list of contenders to replicate three key historical precedents that have played out in the NFL for many a year:

Team coming from 6-10 or worse last year to make the playoffs: Vikings, Redskins, Rams

Team coming from outside playoffs last year to grab a first round bye: Chargers, Bears, (gulp)… Cardinals

Team dropping from a first round bye last year to miss the playoffs: Patriots, Packers (they are both 2-2 so far, and someone drops out almost every year).

 

Results from Week 4 tips

NT – 5 selections, 6.5 units bet, return of 8.60 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +32%

CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%

Total – 8 selections, 9.5 units bet, return of 8.60 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -10%

Overall Results

NT – 21 selections, 27 units bet, return of 28.35 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +5%

CB – 14 selections, 12.5 units bet, return of 9.92 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -21%

Total – 35 selections, 39.5 units bet, return of 38.27 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -3%

 

NT Recommended Bets

ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS: 1 UNIT ON ST LOUIS +1.0 @ $1.93 (LUXBET)

The Cardinals are undefeated this year – shockingly – but they are not deserving of road favouritism against St Louis. The Rams actually stack up well, particularly defensively, and are a definite sleeper this year. Jeff Fisher's team have won both games at home this year and both opponents presented far more daunting offenses. The Rams are worthy of being at least three-point favourites here.

MIAMI @ CINCINNATI: 2 UNITS ON MIAMI +4.0 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET)

Well, it wouldn't be a week doing the NFL lines if we weren't on Miami. For the fifth straight week, we are riding the 1-3 Dolphins, who have gone 2-1-1 ATS. They made the number last week but I still can't believe they blew it to the Cardinals. The Bengals have somehow come up favourites in this. They are 3-1 but those wins have come against Cleveland, Washington and Jacksonville, who are a combined 3-9 this year. Miami are still underrated and the return to full health of Reggie Bush should help the Dolphins cover the number.

SEATTLE @ CAROLINA: 1 UNIT ON SEATTLE +3.0 @ $1.90 (LUXBET)

Cam Newton is giving off some very bad signals – his body language following the Giants loss was appalling and he was restricted in his passing against the Falcons. The Seahawks defence is much stronger than that of the Falcons and can create all kinds of match-up issues for the Panthers. And if Marshawn Lynch sees as many holes as David Wilson did, he could run for 200 yards.

DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND: 1 UNIT ON DENVER +7.0 @ $1.83 (CENTREBET)

I'm certainly not overly high on Denver this year and I'm not prepared to write off the Patriots, particularly after their decimation of the Bills, but this line is too big. All advanced metrics rank the Broncos in the top quarter of the NFL and the Broncos have got a varied offense that can score on the Pats. The points look a little big here.

SAN DIEGO @ NEW ORLEANS: 2 UNITS ON SAN DIEGO +4.0 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET)

What a ridiculous line. The 3-1 Chargers are very much one of the top teams in the AFC while the Saints are 0-4 and while they have an offense, they have a defence that couldn't stop me in ice skates after 12 beers. The Chargers should be able to have their way with the Saints and pile up a ton of points.

 

 

CB Recommended Bets

TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA: 1 UNIT ON MINNESOTA -5.5 AT $1.91 (LUXBET)

The Titans have lost three games already (including both of their road trips) by over 20 points, while the Vikings are 3-1, including a home win against the Niners. Adrian Peterson is clearly having a better year than Chris Johnson, and the Vikings’ rushing defence has conceded only 3.3 yards per carry and a total of one touchdown in four games. In addition, the Titan’s pass defence has allowed over 75 per cent of opposing QB passes to be completed, whilst letting in 10 TDs and only causing one pick. This line should be at least a touchdown, if not a little higher.

PHILADELPHIA @ PITTSBURGH: 1 UNIT ON PHILADELPHIA +3.0 AT $2.05 (CENTREBET)

Are the Steelers a potential letdown side in 2012? They’re currently gaining only 2.6 yards per carry (worst in the league) rushing, have a worse than average rush defence (conceding 4.3 YPC) and have only one interception to six TDs allowed despite having faced Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer. Meanwhile, the Eagles may be a little lucky to sit at 3-1, but they have above-average rushing offense and defence, as well as a very stingy pass defence (52.4 per cent pass completion, five TDs, six picks). If they can keep the turnovers to a minimum like they did against the Giants last week, an upset is on the cards.

DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND: 1 UNIT ON DENVER +7.0 AT $1.83 (CENTREBET)

Both sides are 2-2, with their losses coming against high calibre opponents (combined record of 15-1). The Pats gain 4.2 YPC rushing; the Broncos 3.9. Both sides concede 3.4 YPC. The Pats’ pass defence has conceded more yards per pass attempt and more TDs, but also come up with more picks (such the ‘QB ratings’ conceded are almost identical). Tom Brady is completing 65.6 per cent of passes, gaining 8.0 yards per attempt and has seven TDs to one pick; Peyton Manning has equivalent figures of 64.3 per cent, 7.5 YPA, eight TDs and three picks. In light of all that, how are the Pats spotting more than four points here? I don’t understand.

SAN DIEGO @ NEW ORLEANS: 1 UNIT ON SAN DIEGO +4.0 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET)

A 3-1 side getting four points on the road against a 0-4 side? Sign me up! The Saints’ biggest problem (aside from having an interim-interim head coach) is that they can’t stop anybody. They’ve conceded 27 points or more in every game thus far, conceding 4.9 YPC rushing (bottom six in the league) and 8.7 YPA passing (second worst in the league). Drew Brees can’t do it all on his own, and frankly, I don’t see how they start as favourites here.

 

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo