The NFL Lines – Wild Card Weekend
The NFL playoffs commence with an intriguing set of Wild Card weekend matches – Houston host Cincinnati and Baltimore host Indianapolis in the AFC, while Green Bay host Minnesota and Washington host Seattle in the NFC. Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham assess the opening week playoff picture.
Results from Week 17 tips
NT – 1 selections, 1 unit bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%
CB – Nil
Total – 1 selections, 1 unit bet, return of 0.00 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -100%
Overall Results
NT – 65 selections, 73.5 units bet, return of 74.73 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +2%
CB – 43 selections, 41.5 units bet, return of 33.51 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -19%
Total – 108 selections, 115 units bet, return of 108.24 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = -6%
NT Recommended Bets
SEATTLE @ WASHINGTON: 1 UNIT ON WASHINGTON +3.0 AT $1.90 (BET365)
I struggle to see how the Skins are getting a full field goal here. The Seahawks are a good team but they travel back East and play a team who is red hot on the back of seven straight wins, where they made the number in each. In Seattle's last four back east they blew the Bills out, but only snuck home over Chicago in OT and lost to Miami and Detroit. RGIII can cause the Seahawks real headaches and Seattle's scoring does dip on the road. Big confidence with Washington.
CB Recommended Bets
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE: 1 UNIT ON BALTIMORE -6.5 AT $1.92 (SPORTSBET)
Part of me hates this bet – going against the feel-good story of the year, the Chuckstrong movement and everything karma could possibly offer. Yet there are some compelling reasons to make it. The Colts went 7-1 at home this year and beat the Titans, Jags, Lions and Chiefs (who posted a combined record of 14-50) on the road. Their four road losses: 41-21 at Chicago, 35-9 at NY Jets, 59-24 at New England and 29-17 at Houston, enough to give them a negative points differential for the season. Meanwhile, the Ravens have won 22 of their 25 home matches (including their only home playoff game) since the start of the 2010 season, and 34 of their 41 home matches since the start of the 2008 season. In the cold of Baltimore in January, expect the Ravens to use Ray Rice to expose the Colts’ poor run defence (conceding 5.1 YPC) and pound their way to a convincing win.
SEATTLE @ WASHINGTON: 1 UNIT ON WASHINGTON +3.0 AT $1.90 (BET365)
I marked this game as Washington favoured by 1.5, so I’m very happy to grab the points for the home team. The QB match-up looks very even, with both teams going low on average pass attempts, but high on completion rate, yards per attempt and TD to Int ratio. The rushing match-up of Morris v Lynch is also tantalising, with the ‘Skins holding a marginal edge in both YPC running the ball and a slightly lower YPC conceded when defending against the run. But the critical point for me is home field advantage. The Seahawks were unbeaten at home this season but went 3-5 on the road, beating only Carolina, Chicago (in OT) and Buffalo. They lost to the Cardinals, Rams, Niners, Lions and Dolphins on the road – of this group, only the Niners reached even a .500 record this season. I simply can’t have them as road favourites against a team who has won seven straight (including four wins against teams with a record of .500 or better). Moreover, if you think home field advantage is worth around three points as the general rule-of-thumb suggests, this implies that the Seahawks would be favoured by six points at a neutral venue and nine at home. That’s too many in my opinion.
Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo
