The Return of the King

By Mick Adams

Well thank Christ for that. After spending the rugby league offseason immersed in the many joys of the NFL season – not the least being its draft-based fantasy competition – the approach of another all-but-pointless year of fantasy did not hold much appeal. Mercifully however, the Telegraph’s Supercoach and the NRL Dream Team competitions have finally seen the light and instituted a player draft, along with some necessary changes to the scoring system which place more emphasis on attack. With draft day rapidly approaching, here’s my breakdown:

 

Draft Strategy

No doubt the usual suspects in Paul Gallen and Corey Parker will be quickly removed from most boards. There are plenty of arguments to suggest against such a strategy however:

1. They ain’t what they used to be

Both now on the wrong side of 30, they each had issues with injury last year and had reduced minutes when on the field. Subsequently, they both saw a reduction in fantasy effectiveness. This trend is likely to continue, with Gallen in particular showing signs of wear and tear in the preseason.

2. Reduced points for runs under 8 metres

This one applies to Parker more than Gallen, the latter averaging over 8 metres a carry, phenomenal given he averaged 23 hit ups per game in 2012, unmatched by any player and 8 better than Parker, who averaged just over 7 metres per run. The Broncos back rower is a tackling machine however, averaging nearly 40 tackles a game to Gallen’s 26. So neither player is likely to be a slouch, and will no doubt finish among the top players overall if they stay fit. So why not draft them? Reason number three…

3. It’s not what you’ll get but what you’ll miss out on

Gallen, Parker, Fensom. The long established holy trinity and almost guaranteed to be first round picks. But move beyond those and you have a whole host of reasonable options, pretty much interchangeable. For front rowers it’s pretty much the same story. We’ll get to those soon enough, but what are you going to do if you miss out on a topline halfback, fullback or five eighth? At least twelve viable options are required in each position in a twelve team draft. Do you really want to be saddled with players like Peter Wallace, Jarrod Mullen or William Zillman? Grab Thurston, Cronk, Mateo et. al. and grab them early.

With that out of the way, here’s a breakdown by position:

FULLBACK

Studs

I was fully prepared to anoint Ben Barba a potential first overall pick until this week’s developments, but his draft stock is obviously severely diminished. Definitely worth picking up if available late in the draft, but he will no doubt be snapped up early on by someone braver than I. Slater is the conservative pick, but probably the right one in rounds 2-4. Greg Inglis will probably be taken off the board in that same range and you couldn’t really argue with that either.

Sleepers

Is this the year that Josh Dugan finally realises his potential? He’s as brittle as they come and an arrogant little sod to boot but he’s rather impressive when he’s on the field doing his thing. Likely to be available for a few rounds too. I wouldn’t take him earlier than the eighth round or so but could be worth a gamble after that.

Waiver Watch

Depending on Ricky Stuart’s plans for Jarryd Hayne, Jake Mullaney could prove a popular waiver wire pick up. If he is not drafted, expect him to be snapped up immediately should Stuart name Hayne at 5/8. With that in mind:

I’m Not Touching…

Jarryd Hayne. Obviously he’s a fantasy stud, and has been for a long time. That could well continue, I’m just not prepared to take that risk. Once Stuart gives a clearer indication of his plans for Hayne that could all change, but by then that ship will have sailed in the direction of another fantasy owner. 

CENTRE/WING

Studs

Jamie Lyon was slow out of the gates last year but ended the season fourth overall among centre/wings. I see no reason for the same to not occur this year, as he is undoubtedly one of the game’s top centres. A much riskier proposition is Michael Jennings, who has starred at times but has always struggled with attitude and motivation. I don’t know why but I’m      backing him to turn it around with a fresh start at the Roosters though. I wouldn’t be drafting any C/Ws with any of my first five picks however, as there are too many options all around the same level of fantasy worth to sacrifice a pick in a more competitive position early on.

Sleepers

It remains to be seen how the pointscoring changes will affect the likes of Gavin Cooper and Simon Mannering, backrowers available in the C/W slot, but I have a feeling their scores might be diminished. Both average over thirty tackles but are low on carries, and neither averages over 8m per run. I think Ben Te’o and Tony Williams both present better value. Williams in particular, reunited with the only coach who could (sort of) keep him in line, could be in for a big year. I realise he’s hardly a sleeper, but I had to put his name in somewhere.

Waiver Watch

Not sure where he rates in the pecking order in the Broncos backline with the returning Jharal Yow Yeh, but Dale Copley’s numbers stacked up pretty reasonably last year and if he gets another extended run could be worth a look at. The Raiders’ Edrick Lee impressed me greatly last year and is another one that could prove a valuable midseason addition if he is not drafted.

I’m Not Touching…

Dane Gagai had a strong finish to 2012 after being picked up by Wayne Bennett’s Knights, and if the Supercoach website is to be believed has shot up draft boards at FB and C/W. Don’t know about that one. I feel there are better options and he presents a risk. But as anyone who read this column last year knows, I’ve been wrong before. Over and over again.

FIVE EIGHTH

Studs

Feleti Mateo could well go number one overall given his vast pointscoring abilities and dual position status. I have the two pick in this year’s Making The Nut draft and if he’s still on the board he won’t be available at three.

Sleepers

Joseph Paulo at the Eels is another who’s available at FE and SR. He scored well last year and makes for a handy late round addition.

Waiver Watch

Luke Kelly is another one who’s fantasy worth rest in the hands of Ricky Stuart, and given there’s a fair bit of buzz around him may be drafted regardless. If not, definitely one to keep an eye on.

I’m Not Touching…

Todd Carney. This section is reserved for players of undoubted quality who nonetheless present a risk which outweighs the reward. The Sharks have every reason to feel confident this season, and Carney drove a much weaker Roosters outfit to a grand final not too long ago. And yet. I just can’t do it.

HALFBACKS

Studs

Nothing more needs to be said about Jonathan Thurston, but he’s obviously the sensible choice. Cooper Cronk obviously goes okay too.

Sleepers

I have a feeling however that this might be a breakout year for James Maloney, who could potentially hang around the draft board into the third or fourth round. Doesn’t run that often but makes good metres when he does; pretty good and prevalent tackler; doesn’t score many but sets up .75 tries a game. In short there’s a lot of upside there, and while he should be gone far too early to be considered a genuine sleeper I think we’ll see his numbers improve at the Roosters this year.

Waiver Watch

As a Dragons fan in what will almost certainly be a write-off of a season, I am praying that Steve Price abandons the ludicrous decision to start Nathan Fien at halfback, an idea doomed to failure. The youngster Drinkwater might be rubbish or he might be the next Cherry-Evans. We’ve got nothing to lose (Price has his job but that’s another story) so give him a go. Here’s hoping Drinkwater becomes the waiver wire pick up of the year and leads the Dragons to some more of that sweet glory. And by glory of course I mean finishing above twelfth place. Now that would be something.

I’m Not Touching…

Brett Finch. The exception to my rule that this space is reserved for players of undoubted quality. Finch has never been that and I can’t see what use he’ll be to Melbourne other than as mediocre Origin cover.

FRONT ROW

Studs

Trent Merrin is still available at front row but starting at Lock for the Dragons. He is an absolute gun and I think the move will only increase his fantasy worth. Bronco prop Josh McGuire should get some more minutes this year while the Tigers’ Aaron Woods had a sensational 2012 while the strong running James Tamou is a likely beneficiary of the 8m rule. Cameron Smith is likely to be the same brilliant Cameron Smith at Hooker. At the top end this position really picks itself.

Sleepers

The Broncos’ Andrew McCullough is coming off an impressive season, and it will be interesting to see where he falls in drafts. I think somewhere between rounds 7-10 sounds about right, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him gone earlier.

Waiver Watch

I don’t know how much game time he’ll end up with, but the Tigers’ Masada Iosefa stacked up well stats wise in 2012. A skilful hooker and prevalent tackler, he could prove a useful mid-season waiver pick up should Robbie Farah make Origin again or suffer an injury.

I’m Not Touching..

James Graham, for obvious reasons. It remains to be seen whether anyone takes the plunge on Graham, but given the reduced squad size and reserves in the draft fantasy structure, it’s a foolhardy soul who allocates a bench spot to someone who will be occupying that same spot in reality for a third of the season. Best waiver wire pick up ever if he does go undrafted though.

SECOND ROW

Studs

Another position that picks itself. If you miss out on the big three there’s still quality options aplenty with Mateo, Nate Myles, Chris Houston, Sam Burgess and a host of others up for grabs.

Sleepers

Josh Jackson is an emerging talent at the Bulldogs whose fantasy stats from limited opportunities last year were excellent. With the departure of David Stagg and the aforementioned absence of Graham, this could be Jackson’s breakout season. Alex McKinnon at Newcastle, Aidan Guerra and Boyd Cordner at the Roosters have been around the scene a little longer but are each similarly poised. The four will almost certainly be drafted at some stage, but will presumably be available into the last five or six rounds.

Waiver Watch

The off season spending spree of Ivan Cleary, a man with a seemingly insatiable appetite for recruiting second and third-tier talent, could force him out of the top 17, but the Panthers Matt Robinson is one to watch. In his eight games last year he posted some decent numbers- well and truly passing the 8m test and averaging nearly twenty tackles. By the end of the season he was regularly getting 50 minutes plus per game, but as I said he’ll face some stiffer competition for selection and minutes this year.     

I’m Not Touching…

$BW OMG. Somebody else’s problem.