The Rudd Backlash

There is no more bombastic or self-involved state in Australia than Queensland. For good or ill, Queenslanders are proud of the individuality Queensland seems to have among the states. Queenslanders identify with Queensland more than any other citizen around Australia identifies with their respective state. They believe in their own. They buy into the narrative that they are perennial underdogs, downtrodden and misunderstood by the rest of Australia. They are statist to the core. Just look at State of Origin.

 

Queenslanders, as such, are unlikely to take kindly to the dismissal of Kevin Rudd, only the second elected Prime Minister from Queensland in since Federation. All indicators suggest there will be a backlash against the ALP in Queensland, a state that is traditionally Labor’s worst. Combined with historical factors and Labor’s overachievement in Queensland at the last election, Queensland could lose as many as ten seats. Ten seats would be a calamity for Labor and could see them lose power after only a single term. Rudd may have been polling poorly but his ability to carry Queensland would have assured Labor a second term. Gillard can offer no such promises.

 

There is no doubt that Labor overachieved in Queensland in 2007. The ALP picked up nine seats on the back of a 7.5% swing statewide including wining the seat Forde on a 14.4% swing, Leichhardt on 14.3%, Dawson on 13.2%, Longman on 10.3% and Blair on 10.2%. Such was the totality with which Queenslanders not only turned on Howard but jumped on board Queenslander Rudd that the ALP candidates were actually favourites in many of those seats as the weight of money was for one side only. Queensland was loyal to Howard, as they were to Menzies, and formed the bedrock of his government for eleven years. Howard was never going to survive when up against a Queenslander though. In the dog days of summer and those delightfully mild winters, the Queensland philosophy of a Queenslander above all others remained.

 

Only 5 times in the last 13 elections has the ALP won a majority of Queensland seats. Only three times since 1949 has Labor claimed the two-party preferred. Historically, Queensland has been Labor’s weakest state and every time they have reached 50% 2PP and/or 15-plus seats, there has been a drop off at the next election.

 

When Labor achieved a 49.5% share of the 2PP in 1983, support dropped 1.8% and resulted in the loss of a seat at the 1984 election. When Labor won 50.2% of the Queensland vote in 1990, which translated into 15 seats, the ALP suffered a 1.8% and two seat drop in 1993. In only 4 of the last 13 elections has the ALP achieved over 48.5% of the 2PP in Queensland and on 7 occasions they have failed to win 47% of the 2PP. 1987 was the only year that the ALP’s 2PP in Queensland surpassed their national average.

 

Queensland also has a strong history of turning against sitting governments as they seek a second term. The reaction against Fraser in 1977 was a 2.2% swing and 2 seat move to Labor. In 1984, the ALP suffered a swing against them of 1.8%. In 1998, Howard copped a huge swing against the Coalition of 7.1% with four seats lost. Queenslanders tend to keep governments in check as they seek a second term.

 

A natural downturn in support for Labor in Queensland is expected based on historical trends alone. 2007 was a dream performance from Labor: their highest Queensland primary vote since 1972, the highest 2PP preferred post-Menzies and the translation of votes into seats. 2007 was the exception to the rule though.

 

Combined with polling that suggests 57% of Queenslanders believe dumping Rudd hurts the ALP, national polling that has the Coalition closing the gap in popular support, the stink of the Bligh State Government (a topic I will delve more deeply into next week) and the anecdotal evidence that suggests Queenslanders are homers, all signs point to a backlash in Queensland against Labor. There will be a price to pay for the humiliating execution of Kevin Rudd. That price could well be government for the ALP.

 

Of the 30 seats in Queensland, 15 can be considered marginal or, at the very least, contestable. Labor currently holds nine of the fifteen marginals and are notionally holding two more. The Coalition are holding five marginal seats (though they lost two notionally to redistribution and another when the Liberal National Party disendorsed the sitting member) and are notionally holding the new seat of Wright.

 

A betting note on the safe seats first: there are plenty of betting opportunities on safe seats that simply won’t be changing hands unless Julia Gillard reveals herself to be a vuvuzela-playing hermaphrodite or Tony Abbott declares himself God as he stands naked on the Speaker’s chair reading from the Book of John Elias.

 

Independent Bob Katter owns Kennedy with a margin of 16.3% and his family has a long history in the seat yet Sportsbet are offering $1.17. The term money for jam comes to mind though you should also be able to exchange old rope for the price. Safe Coalition seats Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Maranoa and Moncrieff have also, surprisingly, provided betting opportunities. All bar Fairfax and Fisher (both rated $1.05) are rated at $1.00 yet Sportsbet is offering $1.06 on Fadden and Maranoa and $1.10 on Moncrieff. Centrebet are offering $1.22 for Fairfax and $1.26 for Fisher. All are very short but none of the aforementioned seats have even the slightest chance of changing hands.

 

Back to the marginal seats, the Coalition should keep the seats they have not lost to redistribution. Popular local Paul Neville will hold Hinkler, they should win back Ryan from disgraced MP Michael Johnson and they are well fancied to claim the new seat of Wright with $1.35 the best price available on the Coalition.  Liberal Andrew Laming is marginally favoured to retain Bowman though some solid Liberal booths have been lost and the history of the seat suggests they tend to side with the Government. The backlash against Rudd should secure Bowman for the Coalition even though it is held by just 0.01%.

 

Dickson and Herbert will prove critical to the chances of the Coalition to form government. Dickson is the seat of opposition health spokesman Peter Dutton while Herbert was secured by popular local Peter Lindsay, who is retiring. The redistributions have both seats notionally Labor now with both races too close to call with two books having Dutton marginally ahead and another giving Dickson to Labor while in Herbert all three major bookies have joint favouritism. The Coalition will be hurt by Dutton seeking preselection elsewhere, the retirement of Peter Lindsay and the ALP fielding former mayor Tony Mooney as its candidate in Herbert (a seat which has a long history of voting on local issues) but with notional margins of 0.8% and 0.03% respectively and a swing of at least 2% forecast in Queensland against Labor, the Coalition should win both seats back. Never underestimate the importance of localism in Queensland though.

 

The biggest concern for Labor in Queensland is their five marginal rural seats. This is where the pro-Rudd sentiment was strongest and without a Queensland boy to back, many are expected to revert back to voting conservative. I have both Dawson and Leichhardt reverting back to Coalition hands. The incumbent Labor MP in Dawson is retiring due to poor health after winning on the back of a near 14% swing in 2007 and with resentment in the mining industry against Labor still high, Dawson will most likely be won by LNP candidate George Christensen. Christensen rates $1.40 but $1.70 can be found at Sportingbet, a certain bet. The story is similar in Leichhardt, an open seat the Coalition lost to a swing of 14.1%. That loss came as incumbent (1996-2007) Warren Entsch retired. He has made a comeback and will win the seat back for the Coalition. The TAB has put up $1.95 and that is a top notch bet.

 

Flynn, Forde and Longman are also in some danger for Labor with all seats holding margins under 3.5%. Bookies have written Flynn off for Labor with $2.30 available on sitting ALP MP Chris Trevor. The ALP have been helped by redistribution which adds 2% to the seat though and Trevor may be insulated by his vocal support for Kevin Rudd. No bet there but this seat can easily go Liberal. Forde has been a bellwether seat which may help Brett Raguse hold onto the seat for Labor but the seat is renowned for big swings and if a uniform swing holds up in Queensland of 3.5% then Forde will revert to being a Liberal seat. The Coalition have been helped by the redistribution in Longman but have fielded a 20-year-old candidate named Wyatt Roy which could hurt Liberal chances. The Coalition are a bet at $2.75 (Sports Alive) to win the seat but the ALP are rightful favourites.

 

The other four Queensland seats the ALP will be worried about are Bonner, Brisbane, Moreton and Petrie, all metropolitan seats. The Coalition will need a 4.5% swing to claim Bonner but they do have former MP Ross Vasta running, which will boost hopes and may provide a bet at a later date. Brisbane is a fascinating contest with sitting MP since 1990 Arch Bevis facing not only former Petrie MP Teresa Gambaro but former Democrats leader Andrew Bartlett, now a Green, in a high profile three-horse race. The ALP should hold the seat but it will go to preferences and Bevis does have a reputation as a party schmuck, which could lead to a lot of Green preferences leaking Liberal. Moreton and Petrie both won distributions significantly favouring Labor and should be held by the ALP though both could go if the swing gets up above 4%, a real possibility. These seats are Labor’s to lose but if Rudd chooses not to campaign on behalf of the ALP in these electorates then these four seats could bring about the death of the Gillard Government.

 

The swing in Queensland in 2007 was 7.5% to the ALP. Certainly part of that came about because of a tiredness with the Howard Government that permeated right across the country. The better part of that swing was personal support for Rudd though. He was a Queenslander and Queensland wanted a Queenslander in power. A backlash is inevitable. It is only the size to be determined. If it is held to 2% then the Coalition may only pick up 2-3 seats. If it gets up near 5%, as many as 10 seats could go. It is all about damage control for Gillard in Queensland now.

 

 

Recommended Bets:

 

Seat	State	Side (Price)	Centre	Sporting	Sports	Sports Al	Tab	Crikey Price	Rating
Dawson	QLD	George Christensen (LIB)-$1.40	$1.50	$1.70	$1.60	$1.50	x	$2.44	**
Fadden	QLD	Stuart Robert (LIB)-$1.00	$1.01	x	$1.06	x	x	$1.00	***
Fairfax	QLD	Alex Somylay (LIB)-$1.05	$1.22	x	$1.20	$1.22	x	$1.09	***
Fisher	QLD	Peter Slipper (LIB)-$1.05	$1.26	x	$1.20	x	x	$1.07	***
Flynn	QLD	Chris Trevor (ALP)-$1.70	$2.30	$2.10	$1.95	x	x	$1.83	*
Kennedy	QLD	Bob Katter (IND)-$1.00	x	x	$1.17	x	x	$1.00	****
Leichardt	QLD	Warren Entsch (LIB)-$1.70	$1.59	$1.87	$1.85	$1.60	$1.95	$3.76	**
Longman	QLD	Wyatt Roy (LIB)-$2.15	$2.60	$2.40	$2.10	$2.75	x	$2.05	*
Maranoa	QLD	Bruce Scott (LIB)-$1.00	x	x	$1.06	x	x	$1.00	***
Moncrief	QLD	Steven Ciabo (LIB)-$1.00	x	x	$1.10	x	x	$1.00	***
Ryan	QLD	Jane Prentice (LIB)-$1.30	$1.57	$1.80	x	x	x	$1.24	***