They Call It the Brutal Ballet and They Are Right: The 2008 NFL Preview

The time has arrived and the hour is now. Yet another interminably long off-season is over, consigned to history. Pro football is back. The broken bones, the brilliant bursts, the big-time betting…for the next five months, it will be the theatre that we all attend with great excitement.

After a week of meditation and number crunching, video watching and long-distance telephone calls to strange places like Alameda, California and Owing Mills, Maryland, I am ready. The preparations are complete and the good oil resides on these pages.

AFC East: Patriot Perfection?

In a word: no. The Patriots are still, however, the top team in the East and will win the division comfortably. They have the most potent offense in NFL history and while the numbers may drop off somewhat from last season, they will still be extraordinarily high by any other comparison. Brady, Moss, Welker and Maroney will continue to win games for the Pats and another Super Bowl is not out of the question, particularly considering their easy schedule (easiest in the NFL) and a coach who is still burning after the shock Super Bowl defeat. The East has, however, gotten stronger with both the Bills and Jets significantly better and the Dolphins improving (of course, they do have very little room to go backwards) with the hiring of Bill Parcells to run their show. Both the Bills and the Jets are looking at 8-9 wins this season and could challenge for a wild card berth though I am tipping both to just miss out. The Bills have built an exciting young team who should start fulfilling its promise this year. The key for Buffalo will be tailback Marshawn Lynch, who must progress from an outstanding rookie season. Buffalo moved the ball well last season but struggled to score points. That is expected to change this year. The New York Jets, of course, will improve out of sight with Brett Favre calling the shots now. Favre will have another stellar season with an improved offensive line (Alan Faneca, signed from the Steelers) some talented downfield threats (Cotchery, Coles) and a solid running game (Thomas Jones). If he matches the efforts of last season, Favre is more than capable of putting the Jets into the playoffs. Miami will finish somewhere around the three win mark.

Bets: ½ unit on Miami UNDER 5 ½ wins at $1.943 (Pinnacle)

AFC North: Quote the Raven

The AFC North is brutal and as always, they will beat the hell out of each other, playing the typical blue collar football associated with the region, ensuring only one team will progress to the playoffs. Their collective cause will not be helped by the fact they all have schedules that rank in the seven toughest. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the defending champions but they are a team on the slide and will finish right around the .500 mark. The Steelers have the toughest schedule in the NFL and have lost key Pro Bowl lineman Alan Faneca. With an aging defense, a questionable coach and a corps of underachieving receivers, the Steelers seem destined to fall. Ben Roethlisberger remains an elite quarterback but he will not have much help this season. The Cleveland Browns are the hot tip for the division but they look like the trendy prediction that will leave egg on many faces come season’s end. Defensively, the Browns remain vulnerable. They ranked 30th in yards allowed last season and will finish in the bottom quarter again this season. They made it to ten wins last year on the back of a high-octane offense but that may be tough to repeat this year. RB Jamal Lewis is no longer playing for a contract and QB Derek Anderson is unlikely to repeat his big numbers so the Browns piling on points at the rate they did last season seems unlikely. That leaves us with the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens will be the big improvers in the NFL this season. The Ravens managed only five wins last year but were desperately unlucky, losing five games by less than a touchdown and finishing with a turnover differential of -17. If that kind of luck balances itself out this season, the Ravens are at least an 8-8 team. With a tough new coach, a revitalised locker room and a brilliant defense, the Ravens can go as high as ten wins. Their only concern is at quarterback with Kyle Boller the likely starter. Look for draft recruit Joe Flacco to get his chance throughout the season, however. He is big with a bullet arm and can make an impact as a rookie in the same way Big Ben did. The Cincinnati Bengals remain a joke. Their defense appears as inept as always while their offense has fallen away alarmingly. Queen City is looking at a five win season.

Bets: Bet 1 unit on Baltimore to win the AFC North at $8 (IAS)
Bet 3 units on Baltimore to go OVER 6 wins at $1.84 (Pinnacle)
Bet 1 unit on Cincinnati to go UNDER 7 ½ wins at $1.667 (Pinnacle)

AFC South: The Colts Last Stand

The South looks like being the premier division in the AFC this season with all teams expected to finish with eight wins or more and three teams tipped to play in January (again). The Colts remain the team to beat and should have enough firepower to claim their sixth consecutive divisional title. They remain an all-round solid team with a great coach and a brilliant quarterback. They are aging, however, and there are some doubts over Manning’s fitness. The Colts should be looking at 12-13 wins again with a conference title not beyond their grasp. The Jags have always been the heir apparent to Indianapolis but have never been able to topple the Colts. The Jags are a solid team with a sound defense and one of the best running games in the NFL. Their problem, however, is their inability to defeat teams with good quarterbacks. They have drafted to fix this problem but only time will tell if their pass rush improves enough to topple the Colts. It is unlikely 2008 will be that year. If David Garrard plays as he did last season and manages the game well, the Jags should still be good for 9-10 wins and a wild card berth. The Titans are also looking at another wild card spot with 9-10 wins not beyond them either. Vince Young now has some tools he can use in tight end Alge Crumpler and receiving back Chris Johnson and this should be the year he should show some of his Texas form. With an exceptional defense, the Titans seem well placed to grind their way into another playoff berth. The Houston Texans will not be the easybeats they have been in recent years and though they are probably a win off playoff football, they can still finish with another 8-8 season. Their offense looks ready to fire with Andre Johnson an exceptional talent at wide receiver. It is their defense, however, that still appears vulnerable.

Bets: No selections

AFC West: The Not So Wild West

The San Diego Chargers will win the West but it will only be by default. Their three divisional rivals are insipid and bordering on pathetic. The Kansas City Chiefs are in rebuilding mode and have virtually conceded the season. They will struggle to reach five wins with no decent quarterback, a defense that is full of holes and a star running back who appeared to have jumped the shark last season. The Oakland Raiders are no better. They drafted a future star in RB Darren McFadden but have major issues with their passing game, defense and special teams. The Denver Broncos seem marginally better but are still expected to go backwards from their seven wins of 2007 with the loss of kicker Jason Elam, who kicked four last-play game-winning field goals last season, hurting the team both on the field and in the locker room. As a result of such ineptitude amongst this once proud division, the San Diego Chargers will be handed their third straight division crown. There is plenty to like about the Chargers: LT is the most explosive back in the game, the Chargers have plenty of playmakers on defense and they have an easy schedule. They do, however, appear to be an overrated proposition going into the season. QB Phillip Rivers returns from a knee reconstruction, LB Shawne Merriman is playing with a shredded knee, Norv Turner has never proven himself to be an elite coach, the team has lost outstanding back-up tailback Michael Turner, theygot plenty of luck last year with a high turnover differential and they do not appear to have much upside. They are looking at 9-10 wins this season with an early playoff exit tipped from this author.

Bets: ½ unit on San Diego UNDER 10 ½ wins at $2.55 (Pinnacle)

AFC Summary

Division Champions: New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, San Diego
Wild Card: Jacksonville, Tennessee

Championship Game: New England vs Baltimore

NFC East: The Best Division in Football

The winner of the NFC will come from the East. Of that, there is little doubt. All four franchises have legitimate playoff claims and all four are expected to finish with a record of .500 or above. The Dallas Cowboys won this division last year and are the team to beat again. They are flush full of stars on both sides of the ball with the likes of Romo, Owens, Witten, Barber, Ware, Thomas and Jones all serious playmakers. They are an outstanding team on paper who ranked third in total offense and ninth in total defense last season and enter 2008 with an upgraded roster. Despite the toughness of their division, they look good for at least eleven wins and more likely twelve or thirteen. The Cowboys’ problems haven’t been in the regular season, however. They have struggled in the playoffs in recent years and though Wade Phillips is a good coach, he does not have the most inspiring post-season record. Still, the Cowboys have too much talent to not advance to at least the NFC Championship game. They are tipped to meet the Philadelphia Eagles in the big game. The Eagles offense is one again expected to perform with Brian Westbrook the key to the system. He is an elite multi-dimensional back who can create havoc for opposing defenses. If he stays healthy and McNabb can click with a receiver or two, the Eagles will score points. The big boon for the Eagles, however, is on the other side of the ball. Philly have significantly upgraded their defense by signing Asante Samuel and Chris Clemons. Those additions could make the Eagles one of the top four defensive units in the NFL. If they improve their red-zone efficiency, they are Super Bowl contenders. The New York Giants and the Washington Redskins will fight it out for the remaining playoff spot. There are concerns the Giants are suffering from a post-Super Bowl hangover and those fears have only been complicated by the loss of leading pass-rusher Osi Umenyiora to injury and Michael Strahan to retirement. The Giants have a solid ground game that will take them a long way if Eli Manning remains competent while the quality of their defense cannot be questioned. Expect the Giants to just pip the Washington Redskins for the playoff spot. The Skins have a top class running game and an improving quarterback but the new coach creates some concern. They look like an eight to nine win team who will be unlucky to miss the playoffs.

Bets: No selections

NFC North: The Quarterback Free Zone

Let us take a look at the four starting quarterbacks in the North now that the Packers incomprehensively moved Brett Favre on. Aaron Rodgers, the Packers flamethrower who has never started a game. Tavaris Jackson, the Vikings hurler who has more career interceptions than touchdowns. Kyle Orton, the Bears triggerman who has previously lost his job to Rex Grossman and only marginally beat that fool out this time around. Jon Kitna, the Lions gunslinger whose last three seasons have resulted in more picks than scores. It is a veritable smorgasbord of ineptitude and failure. Welcome to your NFC North. The division will not be won but rather lost. This is a battle to see who can screw up least. That rules Detroit out right off the bat. They have developed a habit of failure and mediocrity that will be hard to shake, even this year when they are somewhat in the mix. When you have won only one playoff game in fifty years and are still burdened by the curse of Bobby Layne, you tend not to have much going for you. It is also tough to make a case for the Bears after they tossed a coin to decide who would open training camp as the number one quarterback. That probably isn’t a good sign. Their wretched offense and feeble defense last year also doesn’t create much hope, particularly when the disparity between yards allowed and points scored is considered. The Bears should have been beaten much worse in 2007. With few significant upgrades, maybe they will get the hiding they deserve in 2008. The Vikings are being widely tipped to make it to the Super Bowl but I doubt they will even escape the division. The Vikes have a strong defence that has been improved by the acquisition of pass-rusher Jared Allen and a prodigious talent in the backfield with Adrian Peterson. They do, however, have Tavaris Jackson. Combined with the fact Peterson has a shocking history with injury and the fourth toughest schedule in the NFL, Minnesota look like an 8-9 win team who will most likely be watching the playoffs on television. Green Bay have certainly downgraded significantly by trading Favre and now have the added pressure of needing Rodgers to be an immediate success. It seems to be a significant matter of debate as to whether this will be the case. Still, the Pack have a super tailback in Ryan Grant and a very handy defense that ranked sixth in scoring last season. They are also working from a 13-3 base and that should put them in good stead, at least early on. The Packers are the team most likely to get through the quagmire that is the NFC North. Expect all teams to finish with between seven and ten wins with the least incompetent team progressing to January for the inevitable beating they will get.

Bets: No selections

NFC South: The Reason They Prefer College Football in the Confederate States

The South is a lottery, as always, and not a particularly valuable one at that. It is little wonder that the folk of the southern states prefer to watch SEC football. Saints-Bucs or Florida-Georgia? Panthers-Falcons or Alabama-Auburn? Those questions are not difficult to answer. This year it is a three way battle for the division with only the Atlanta Falcons, possibly the worst team in football, incapable of winning a division that seems to change hands every year. History and age seem to be against the Bucs. No team has won back-to-back divisional titles in the South since the league went to 32 teams while the Bucs have made a habit of not stringing together winning seasons. With aging skill players such as Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway and Earnest Graham, the Bucs look set for a fall off from their 9-7 season last year. The Panthers have been tipped to improve with Jake Delhomme returning but if he is their saviour, the Panthers are in for real trouble. John Fox is also too conservative in his play calling and that will hurt the team as they have no real running game. The Panthers look set for another seven win season. That leaves the New Orleans Saints. The Saints will post some big numbers offensively and if they can improve on their 26th ranked defense, they should have enough to claim the division. The Saints managed to go 7-9 last season and that was not too bad considering they lost their two backs (McAllister and Bush) to injury. If the Saints can improve their turnover differential, they should win 8-9 games and that will be enough to take the South.

Bets: No Selections

NFC West: Home of the Hopeless

Seattle have owned this division in recent times but it appears their time in the sun is drawing to a close. It is only the ineptitude of the other three organisations that keeps Seattle in the race. The Hawks have plenty to play for this season with beloved head coach Mike Holmgren announcing that this will be his final year at the helm. That may not be enough, however, with Seattle looking a decidedly fragile football team that has all the hallmarks of a 7-8 win team. The offense is of particular concern with the running game looking very shaky and the receiving corps looking abhorrent. Matt Hasselbeck is a classy quarterback but he is no miracle worker. As hard as this is to say, Arizona are the selection to take their first divisional title since the seventies. The Cards went 8-8 in Ken Whisenhunt’s first season despite being ravaged by injury. The new coach seemed to really change the culture of the club and the team will be hungry to improve. Warner has beaten out Leinart for the quarterback gig, by far the best short-term option for the club, while the receiving corps remains strong with Boldin and Fitzgerald. The Cardinals should improve by 1-2 wins and that will likely be enough to claim the division. The Rams and the Niners will both improve but not by enough to take the open division. St. Louis were killed by injury and turnovers last year and if the gods balance out the luck, they should be good for another 3-4 wins. The Niners have bought in Mike Martz to cure their insipid offense and that can push the team up to 6-7 win range as well. He has some exciting tools to use with RB Frank Gore, electrifying tight end Vernon Davis and his old Rams receiver Isaac Bruce but there are still major issues at quarterback with the never-heard-of J.T O’Sullivan somehow winning the job.

Bets: ½ unit on Arizona to win the NFC West at $3 (IAS)

NFC Summary

Division Champions: Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona
Wild Card: Philadelphia, New York Giants

Championship Game: Dallas vs Philadelphia

Super Bowl Prediction

New England to defeat Dallas