Try Line Picks: Round 25
Panthers – Line: 5.00 Bet Units: We have stated all 2012 the Panthers are willing, well coached and committed – they just lack the talent to compete with the top sides. The Panthers spine of Gordon, Coote, Walsh and Kingston has looked quite good in recent weeks – Coote in particular might have found a home at pivot, his left kicking game will be better with a full off-season. The Panthers pack is sound and face a similar pack this week in the Titans, both sides have workmanlike packs and rate quite closely – the X-Factor in the engine room is Greg Bird! Michel Jennings has been cleared to play and will make a big difference this week. Over the last 4 weeks the Panthers have been churning out more than 120 metres than the Titans whilst missing less tackles with better defensive effectiveness. The Panthers won a poor game in New Zealand last week, the Titans getting over Eels – we can see another Panthers upset here, take them at the plus (+4.0 to +4.5)
Dragons – Line: 5.00 Bet Units: "Plenty to play for" will be the message to the Dragons with home ground send offs for club legends Dean Young and Ben Hornby – they should win and win well against the horribly coached Warriors. The Warriors are diabolical in structure – they have no real defensive system, or set up – men come in, rush up, don't slide; in attack they rely on Mateo full stop. Over the last 4 rounds the Warriors are clearly the worst rating team in the NRL, making over 12 errors on average a game, conceding over 6 penalties on average a game, and averaging over 46 missed tackles per match – their pack loses Friend this week, and their bench is terrible and rates poorly (worst in NRL). The Dragons will win and win well, they will get to at least 20 points and their defence will hold out this unfit Warriors rabble – Dragons to cover the line (-4.5 to -6.0)
Tigers – Line: 5.00 Bet Units: The Tigers were excellent last week, but still walked away with nothing – the Roosters run into Tigers at the wrong time. The Tigers lose Farah, with Iosefa more than likely to start – he has been rating very well in 2012 with limited opportunities; Lawrence is back and Moltzen to pivot – this means Marshall will get his hands on the football at least twice a set, good news for Tigers fans. The Tigers pack will dominate the poor rating Roosters forward pack – Woods, Galloway, Ellis, Blair, and Heighington are more disciplined and controlled; further the Tigers are making over 220m more per game then the chooks since Round 21. The key mismatch is the Roosters have a completion rate of 69% since Round 21, the Tigers the best in the NRL during this period at 83.50%. The Tigers need to win to lock away a Top 8 opportunity, the Roosters are only playing for the Count's 250th – take the Tigers to cover the line at the SFS (-4.0 to -4.5)
Exotic Selection
Panthers – Margin 1-12: 1.00 Bet Unit ($3.65 @ Sportsbet)
Try Line Picks KPIs 2012 – Round Selections Only
·Strike Rate of 56.3% (LW 54.4%)
·Units Profit of +27.29 (LW +18.29 units)
·Net Profit of +8.22% (LW +5.86%)
Try Line Picks KPIs 2012 – Exotic Selections Only
·Strike Rate of 45.8% (LW 43.5%)
·Units Profit of +10.75 (LW +8.75 units)
·Net Profit of +45.00% (LW +38.04%)
Overall TLP is +38.09 units PROFIT in 2012!
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