Victoria: The Least Important State
The outcome of Victorian seats is unlikely to have much impact on who will form the next government. It rarely does. Despite having 37 seats and being Australia’s second biggest state, Victoria does not come close to holding the sway New South Wales and Queensland have on determining the governing party.
Victoria tends to be a Labor state. With the exception of the 1990 election when Victorian Andrew Peacock led the Coalition and the Cain state government was detested by locals due to the Tricontinental Bank collapse, the ALP has performed better in Victoria than across the country. Labor has polled in excess of 50% of the two-party-preferred in every election bar 1990 and 2004 since 1980 peaking at 54.5% in 1984 and 54.3% in 2007. In 1984 that vote translated into 25 of 39 seats while in 2007 it materialised in 21 of 37 seats. Since 1998, the ALP has held a majority of Victorian seats and did so as well between 1980 and 1990 when Victoria began its shift to the left.
There is no doubt that the natural leaning of Victoria as a whole is with Labor. The problem for the ALP, however, is that there are some very safe Liberal and National seats littered among the Labor strongholds and Labor leaning areas, seats so safe that even a mammoth swing to Labor won’t wrest them from the Coalition. As such, there are very few marginal seats in Victoria meaning that there is very little to be won. Despite strong polling in the state for Labor, it is unlikely that Labor are going to make any significant gains in Victoria.
An aside on polling: Richard Farmer of Crikey (a must follow for all those betting the election) has done some wonderful analysis of how poll results three weeks out translate on Election Day. Over the last eight elections, Labor has polled 1.4% points higher in the Newspoll than at the booth on Election Day with the Coalition polling 1.4% higher at the booth than in the survey. Farmer also found that the Government tends to get a 0.2% bump above the polls at the booth. Most interestingly, the underdog has received a bump on Election Day of, on average, 2.2% points with a better than 1.9% increase in five of the last eight elections and a bump of as high as 5.3% (2004 to Labor). These numbers are important in helping to interpret Newspoll and Nielsen figures and should offer a fair indication that the Coalition are probably in a better position than both the bookies and general public believe.
Now back to the main road and a look at Victoria. Since Victoria became a 37-seat state in 1996, Labor has had between 16 and 21 seats. Since 1998, they have held between 19 and 21. From the low of a 49% share of the two-party-preferred in 2004 where Labor held 19 seats to the 54.3% amassed in 2007 where Labor increased their seat hold to 21, there was only a net gain of two seats. That is two seats on a 5.3% swing. Due to demographics and electoral boundaries, there is very little to be won and lost south of the Murray. The “political fault lines of Melbourne have hardened” in the words of election guru Antony Green.
Victoria is remarkably stable today. Essentially there are only five seats up for grabs with the Labor held Corangamite and Deakin and the Coalition held La Trobe and McEwen the only four seats fought out on traditional lines while Melbourne is shaping as a Greens-ALP battle.
The breakdown of the 32 safe seats is 18 to Labor and 14 to the Coalition. The heartland for Labor in Victoria is Melbourne with 13 of those 18 safe seats metropolitan precincts. It is a 7-7 metro-rural split for the Coalition in Victoria with the Nationals owning farming areas and the Liberals having a grip on the wealthy eastern suburbs as Melbourne. None of these 32 seats will be changing hands despite some concerns from the Liberal Party that Aston may go. There was a 7.9% swing against the Coalition in Aston last election and sitting member Chris Pearce is retiring but Aston remains in Liberal hands by 5.1% and it is tough to see Labor keep the ground they made last time and top that up with another 5.1%. The $1.20 available at Centrebet on the Coalition holding Aston is nearing a bet.
As always, there are some bets in the safe seats thanks to the undying generosity of Australia’s finest corporate bookmakers. Hopefully they will actually take a bet on these rather than just put the prices up and play bookie.
On the Labor side, Calwell is as safe as they come with a 19.3% margin. Sportsbet are generously offering $1.06 on the ALP holding a seat they simply cannot lose.
There are more bets on the Coalition side with bookies willing to risk the opposition. They shouldn’t. The $1.18 about Bruce Billson in Dunkley is marginal overs but has been bet in from $1.28. Centrebet are offering an early Christmas present by giving $1.14 on National Party candidate Darren Chester winning Gippsland. The Nationals have never lost the seat. The seat of McMillan rates $1.05 for the Coalition but $1.22 is available at Sportsbet. Thanks for the chocolates.
Of the four marginal seats that will be fought between the Coalition and Labor, the Coalition hold La Trobe and McEwen while Labor possess Corangamite and Deakin.
The Australian this week reported that internal Liberal Party polling suggests the hopes of winning Corangamite and Deakin are slip sliding away.
Deakin is the Coalition’s best hope and provides a bet despite the pessimism emanating from Liberal ranks. The seat is always marginal but the ALP rarely seem to win it with the ALP holding it for only 18 months from 1983-84 before winning it in 2007. Liberal hopes are pushed by the fact former member Phil Baressi is attempting to reclaim the electorate while ALP MP Mike Symon has been on the end of a sustained smear campaign. The $2.40 on offer Baressi is a bet but a small one. The wager is based primarily on the history of the electorate.
Corangamite is another seat with a long history of Liberal voting having voted conservative from 1931 to 2007. It went Labor last election when Darren Cheeseman knocked off 70 year old Stewart McArthur. Analysis of the electorate that was once rural but is now similar to north coast NSW seats in that it attracts retirees and now encapsulates suburban Geelong suggests McArthur may have hung on longer than expected due to personal vote. I initially marked Henderson favourite for the seat but it is probably flip-of-the-coin based on public polling data and Liberal candidate Sarah Henderson does not look an outstanding prospect. This is a seat best sat out.
Reports also suggest the Coalition is concerned about their two marginals in La Trobe and McEwen. The ALP will be gunning hard for these seats and will need them if they are to hold onto power.
The Coalition are favoured in betting markets to hold La Trobe. Jason Wood is not the most exciting member but he is viewed as a strong local MP and he held off the challenge of a high profile candidate in 2007 when the worm turned harshly on the Liberals. The eastern suburbs of Melbourne are traditionally Liberal heartland and the economic management debate is being won by Tony Abbott, an argument which resonates with voters in mortgage belt seats like La Trobe. The top price on the Coalition is $1.53. I give the seat to the Coalition but if you were forced to bet you would take Labor at the $2.55 offered by Sportsbet.
McEwen is much more winnable for Labor with the now open seat (Liberal Fran Bailey is retiring) held by only 0.02% or 27 votes and that was after court action to determine the final tally. Bailey carried a strong personal vote for since first being elected in 1990 and she has benefited from some heavy pork-barrelling during the Howard years but the Coalition will have neither edge this time around. Labor have put up Rob Mitchell, the candidate who just missed out last time and who has a strong local reputation. Meanwhile, Liberal candidate Cameron Caine is a bushfire hero from Kinglake credited with saving lives on Black Saturday. Top price for each candidate is 1.70 for Labor’s Mitchell (Sportingbet) and 2.28 for the Liberal’s Caine (Centrebet). Betting is right on the money. This seat is Labor’s to lose. As an aside, Cameron Caine has a goatee and nobody in their right mind would vote for someone silly enough to wear a goatee in 2010 even if he is a revered lifesaver. It isn’t 1994 and you aren’t Hootie and you aren’t backed up by the Blowfish.
The seat of Melbourne is an interesting one with the Greens favoured to claim the once safe Labor seat. With the popular Lindsay Tanner retiring and the man who challenged Labor last election, Adam Bandt, running again then this seat is expected to be a close run race between the extreme left and the off-the-map left. Labor hold the seat by 4.7% but will lose a significant portion as Tanner’s personal vote evaporates and those disillusioned with Labor but cannot bring themselves to vote Liberal seemingly have a viable alternative. I mark the Greens slight favourites at $1.80 compared to the $2.20 of the ALP. TAB Sportsbet have the top price for the Greens at $1.95 while $2.20 is available for the ALP at Sportingbet. This makes the Greens a slight bet at the TAB in what will be a very tight race. Living in the seat, I can assure readers the Greens are piling plenty of resources into winning Melbourne and the tide of public opinion among the bleeding hearts and leftie head-stompers is with the Greens. A word of warning though: the vote of this writer certainly will not be finding its way to the Greens even if I have backed them.
The Coalition are worried about Victoria and the ALP are confident but the simple fact remains that the ALP can pick up two seats at most. They have more to lose than to gain with a once safe Labor seat now favoured to go to the Greens and the Coalition a fair shot at winning the two other Labor marginals. I have the state having no net change with the exception of the Greens stealing an ALP seat. There just aren’t that many chips on the table in Victoria and while it was once critical to winning elections the state is now regarded as not particularly important in the overall scheme of Election 2010.
Recommended Bets
Calwell: ALP at 1.06 (Sportsbet)
Deakin: Coalition at 2.40 (TAB Sportsbet)
Dunkley: Coalition at 1.18 (Sportsbet)
Gippsland: Coalition at 1.14 (Centrebet)
McMillian: Coalition at 1.22 (Sportsbet)
Melbourne: Greens at 1.95 (TAB Sportsbet)