ANZ Championships – Rd 11 Tips
Only two weeks reaming in the regular season as we reach Round Eleven of the ANZ Championship. While the Firebirds have locked down the top spot on the ladder, four teams remain in the hunt for the other three finals berths. The Waikato/ BOP Magic have the inside running with their 8-3 record seeing them a win clear in second place. The Northern Mystics sit in fifth place but have the easiest run (Tactix at home and Steel away) over the final two rounds. The NSW Swifts and Melbourne Vixens (currently third and fourth respectively) square off in the final round in a match where the loser may be heading for the exit. It promises to be an intriguing final two weeks before the playoffs.
With another Thursday game requiring an early tip, Ms Netball’s thoughts on the Steel v Swifts match are below, with thoughts on later Round Eleven matches to be provided subsequently in the comments section.
Results of Ms Netball tips to date
Head to head winners: 41 selections, 29 winners (71% strike rate)
Recommended bets: 13 selections, eight winners, return of $15.20, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 17%
To recap, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where the opinion of bookmakers and the opinion of Ms Netball differ by at least 3.5 goals.
Time to hand it over to Ms Netball for her views on Round Eleven of the ANZ Championship:
Round Eleven Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)
Thursday April 21, 7:40 PM Southern Steel v NSW Swifts
Steel: 4-7 (seventh on ladder), 3-1 at home
Swifts: 7-4 (third on ladder), 3-2 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: While the head to head between these two teams is 2 – 1 in the Swifts favour, the last time these two played in NZ the Steel got the win and the Steels record in Dunedin is six out of six! Recently their coach Robyn Broughton has made positional changes in their shooting circle moving Griffin back to GS and Wipiiti out to GA and this has paid dividends, it seems to have given both players more confidence. Last week however against the Magic they did not play well – – it was a scrappy match from both sides. In contrast the Swifts played very well last week, at least for the first half. Of course this will be the Swifts fourth match in 11 days, their third away game over that same period and their second trip to NZ all in less than a fortnight. While they will be feeling the effects of this schedule, nonetheless I think the knowledge that they are playing for a place in the top four will see them take the points this time. Swifts by 6.
Recommended bet:TBC – back the Swifts if -2.5 or less, back the Steel if +9.5 or more.
Saturday April 23, 2:20 PM Melbourne Vixens v Central Pulse
Vixens: 7-4 (fourth on ladder), 4-1 at home
Pulse: 3-8 (eighth on ladder), 1-3 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: TBC
Recommended bet: TBC
Sunday April 24, 1:20 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v Waikato/ BOP Magic
Thunderbirds: 5-6 (sixth on ladder), 3-2 at home
Magic: 8-3 (second on ladder), 5-1 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: TBC
Recommended bet: TBC
Sunday April 24, 6:20 PM Northern Mystics v Canterbury Tactix
Mystics: 7-4 (fifth on ladder), 3-2 at home
Tactix: 1-10 (tenth on ladder), 0-5 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: TBC
Recommended bet: TBC
Monday April 25, 7:40 PM Queensland Firebirds v West Coast Fever
Firebirds: 11-0 (first on ladder), 5-0 at home
Fever: 2-9 (ninth on ladder), 1-3 away
Bookmakers’ line*: TBC
Ms Netball says: TBC
Recommended bet: TBC
Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
* Once again, bookmakers had not yet published lines for these games at the time of publication of this article. We will endeavour to add these lines (and note any consequential recommended bets) as they become available via the comments section each week.
23/04/2011 Melbourne Vixens v Central Pulse
Vixens by 11
The Pulse have shown much improvement this year, they have now won 3 games in a season and they are looking a lot more confident. When the Tactix came back at them last week they remained calm and showed more determination than we have seen from them before. Their opposition however have more to play for, the Vixens need to win against the Pulse to stay in the top 4. The Vixens have had a difficult season with injury and last week their WA Chelsey Tregear injured her ankle and will be out for this match. It has taken the Vixens a bit of time to regroup after the loss of Sharelle McMahon and another injury doesn’t help but Sarah Wall the replacement WA is a capable player and I expect the Vixens at home to be too good for the Pulse
24/04/2011 Adelaide Thunderbirds v Waikato/BOP Magic
Thunderbirds by 3 (No Confidence)
The head to head between these two teams is 3 all, the last time they played was the 2010 ANZ Championship Grand Final when the Tbirds had a 10 goal victory. Having lost their key defenders Gerrard and Mentor this year, few the expected the Thunderbirds to be contenders this year. They will not make the top 4 but they have I think performed above expectations winning against both the Swifts and the Mystics. Their young defence end has a lot of determination and if they can show some intelligence and not give away too many penalties I think they can win this one too. In contrast I would say the Magic have performed below expectations, while they are still second on the ladder they have had to scrape a number of wins and do not seem to have the fluid game they have shown in past seasons. A win for the Magic will secure them 2nd place on the ladder and give them the important double chance to play in the Grandfinal however based on the evidence of both teams recent performances I think the Thunderbirds are playing better and with more confidence so I am picking them in a close match, but would not recommend the bet.
24/04/2011 Northern Mystics v Canterbury Tactix
Mystics by 11
Currently the Mystics sit 5th on the ladder but if as expected they win their final two matches against the Tactix and Steel they will make the finals. Fortunately for them the 2 teams who sit above them have to play each other in the final round thus ensuring a spot for the Mystics for the first time. Knowing this I think the Mystics will win this one and they will also be looking to get valuable percentage points which could also give them the benefit of playing their 1st final at home. I expect them to win by about 10+ goals, we have seen with the Tactix this year they have, at times, been able to challenge the top teams but faced with their recent injury losses and the determination of the Mystics, I expect a confident win for the Mystics
25/04/2011 Queensland Firebirds v West Coast Fever
Firebirds by 14 (No Confidence)
The Firebirds are the Minor Premiers and last time they played the Fever won by 24 goals. The Fever have had a erratic year coming up with some really good performances followed by some awful ones. Last week against the Vixens they were not good and they will be looking for improvement across the court. It is not unthinkable that the Fever can do much better against the Firebirds, if Andrea Gilmore who has had a terrific season at WD and and C Shae Bolton can disrupt the delivery into Aiken and if they cut down on their bad passes they can come a lot closer. I would like to see Firebirds coach Roselee Jencke give more opportunities to her bench. In recent weeks despite being assured of the top position on the ladder she has not gone to her bench. Last week against the Vixens she only brought her bench players on for the last 3 minutes and they did not perform well. I would have thought it more important to give the bench players some needed experience, rather than another 20 goal winning margin. I hope to see Jencke go to the bench this week but in the past have based my Firebirds winning margin on that only to see her stick with the ususal line up. I am tipping the Firebirds by 14 but this is not a recommended bet because I can’t predict what the coach will do!
23/04/2011 Melbourne Vixens v Central Pulse
Vixens by 11
Bookmaker line Vixens -11.5 No bet
24/04/2011 Adelaide Thunderbirds v Waikato/BOP Magic
Thunderbirds by 3 (No Confidence)
Bookmaker line Thunderbirds -1.5 No bet
24/04/2011 Northern Mystics v Canterbury Tactix
Mystics by 11
Bookmaker line Mystics -10.5 No bet
25/04/2011 Queensland Firebirds v West Coast Fever
Firebirds by 14 (No Confidence)
Bookmaker line Firebirds -15.5 No bet