June 30 Racing Selections

Another week, another two placings without a winner – this is getting both monotonous and tiresome. If you still read this column, you either (a) are using it to successfully lay horses, (b) feel a degree of pity for me or (c) appreciate irony in all its forms. For irony’s sake, tips this week will cover the June 30 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill and Morphettville.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for June 23 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Crabs, Wazn

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Flemington – Future Solution ($7.00 SP) – second

Warwick Farm – Harry Trimbole ($7.50) – third

Eagle Farm – Red Tracer ($6.00) – unplaced

June 23 results:   3 selections, no winners

2012 results:  41 selections, 41 units bet, 1 winner, 16 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 9.00 units (POT = -78%), BOB return of 9.50 units (POT = -77%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

June 23 results:  No selections, no winners

2012 results:  12 selections, 6 units bet, 1 winner, 1 third, SP return of 5.00 units (POT = -17%), BOB return of 5.00 units (POT = -17%)

Overall Results

June 23:  3 selections, 3 units bet, no winners

2012:  50 selections, 44 units bet, 2 winners, 17 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 14.00 units (POT = -70%), BOB return of 14.50 units (POT = -69%)

 

Saturday June 30

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 7 Ebony Rock

• His last six runs have been excellent – four wins, a second to Cellarmaster in the Swan Hill Cup (beating Cosmic Causeway) and a fourth to the promising Menados when spotting that galloper four kilos.
• He has won three of his five starts on slow tracks.
• He has a win and a second and a fourth from three starts over this distance.
• Drawn well in barrier four and gets in under the limit with just 52 kilos after the claim.

Race 8 No. 3 Hotham Heights

• He has been a picture of consistency this preparation, with a win and four placings from five runs this time in.
• He tends to get better further into a preparation, winning only one of nine first-up or second-up starts but four of 11 starts when third-up or later.
• His record at 1200 metres is excellent – two wins and six placings from eight starts.
• The barrier draw looks awkward at first, but he is one of few on-pace runners in this field and therefore should be able to cross and control the tempo.

 

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 8 Ideal Position

• A promising four-year-old who has won eight of 15 career runs to date.
• This preparation he has won four of his five races – the one ‘miss’ was an unlucky fourth behind Riva De Lago in an open handicap at Scone (where he defeated the likes of Hood).
• Both of his previous runs on slow tracks have resulted in wins.
• Three wins and two placings from five runs over this distance.

 

Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No.7 Youbolt

• His last two efforts have been very strong for a race such as this – a narrow second to Rebel Truce (who is unbeaten this campaign) and then third to Alpha Proxima (since placed at Flemington) in the Gold Topaz at Swan Hill.
• His only two unplaced runs in the last seven were a fifth at Oakbank (when he was never on the track) and a complete ‘forgive’ run with 60 kilos on a heavy track.
• Has drawn barrier one and gets in with 53.5 kilos (half a kilo below the limit) after the claim.  

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo