2011 NRL FInals Preview

Melbourne ($3.75): The minor premiers in waiting will have a dream run throughout the finals and are clearly the top picks to win another title. Any team lucky enough to boast three of the top five players in the competition will always take some beating but there is still some doubt in my mind about this mob. Slater, Smith and Cronk are almost unbeatable on the big stage but their support cast is nowhere near the calibre of previous seasons. While the lesser-likes have performed admirably all season, I wonder how they will be able to take pressure off the big guns in a tight finals match…especially if it is in Sydney. Cronk’s injury is not ideal, but Hinchcliffe and Smith will fill the void without a drama in the next fortnight. Any further setbacks however could be enough to push their ship off course. I also think the referees will be far less lenient on Melbourne’s wrestling tactics that have really got out of hand in 2011. At their current quote I regard them as a lay despite the fact I would tip them if I was forced to decide on a winner.

Manly ($5.50): In many ways the Sea Eagles are like the Storm. They defend strongly and generally muscle their way across the tryline while keeping mistakes to a minimum. However they are clearly a far more complete team across the park even though they don’t have many out-and-out match winners. It has been several weeks since Manly hit their straps and I’m a strong believer that form is not something you can turn on and off like a tap. Glenn Stewart is just as important to this side as brother Brett and the likes of Watmough, Lyon and Matai are very capable at this level. I wonder how their impressive young halves will handle the big-match pressure though as I saw signs of panic in their loss to the Tigers in Gosford. Manly are reliable, well coached and disciplined. Write them off at your peril but they are far from unbeatable.

Brisbane ($5.50): Brisbane are the perfect example of a side that has successfully blended youth with experience. The Broncos have the best nursery in Australia to choose from and it is almost a sure thing that the nucleus of this squad will dominate the NRL in years to come. Lockyer has been playing within himself for most of the season and Hodges is almost back to his best form so I do see further improvement over the next few weeks. However, I’m not sure if the rest of the squad can play any better in the short-term. Brisbane do have momentum on their side and absolutely no injuries to speak of. With the success of the QLD Reds, QLD Roar and QLD Maroons who is going to say this mob won’t add to the 2011 banana bender highlight reel?

Wests Tigers ($9.50): Unless the wheels fall off, the Tigers have an inside run at a top-5 berth. It is becoming increasingly likely that they finish the regular season on a 8-0 run and if that isn’t momentum I don’t know what is. Lote Tuqiri will be a welcome addition this week and expect Chris Lawrence to be back on deck for the final regular season encounter. I still have doubts about whether they can win big matches with their current fullback and Robert Lui’s defence is a huge concern. However, anyone who questions their five eighth, hooker, back row and centres clearly does not understand the game of rugby league football. If the draw continues to open up for Wests, they may well find themselves in another preliminary final. Whether they are good enough to win from there is another thing.

NZ Warriors ($11): This side can really go on some runs of form and they are presently in a good spot. Just like Manly, they are big and impressive across the field but probably have a better match winner in the form of Feleti Mateo. They have a great bench, absolute blinding pace out wide and a very good goal kicker. Playing consistently on this side of the ditch will be their main challenge and unless they win at least two of their final three matches, they could be in a tricky position on the ladder. I’m not getting too excited by them but I’m clearly of the belief they can beat any of the remaining sides with the momentum they have found.

North QLD ($13): I have been a critic of this side in the past five years and generally speaking I have been proved correct. However I really like how they have come together in 2011. Thurston and Bowen are class personified but the presence of Tate, Tonga, Scott, Johnson and Sims gives this side a far tougher edge. Two very challenging away games along with doubts over Thurston and Scott’s fitness are my main concerns. And let’s face it, if those two aren’t 100% they will not win at ANZ or Auckland and will finish the season in an elimination position. That probably explains my big price about them but if they can win this Friday night and regain some form, I will be cutting their quote significantly.

St George-Illawarra ($13): I for one am gobsmacked at what has happened to the defending premiers. This was a side that relied on everyone playing to a perfect gameplan and now that the timing has gone out of their performance, they are as impotent as a Chernobyl pensioner. I can’t fault the individual performances of Hornby, Cooper, Nightingale and Young but the likes of Soward, Gasnier, Morris, Weyman and Fien have gone missing in action. Even Beau Scott and Darius Boyd look tired. Soward was the conductor of this team but with his inability to play injured they are little chance of turning things around at such short notice. Wayne Bennett seems to be at a loss as to why things have fallen apart but it is likely his impending departure that has assisted in the joint venture’s demise. Only the master himself could turn things around and my sneaking suspicion that he is tapering his team is the only thing keeping me from declaring them $21 shots.

Newcastle ($67): The Knights are a good, honest side who cannot consistently compete with the likes of the abovementioned sides at this stage. They have a very tough run home but I do believe they will fall over the line into eighth spot. While they may be outsiders in two of those three encounters, the numbers suggest they are very likely to gain the honour of losing to Melbourne on the first Sunday of the finals series.

South Sydney ($151): It is a real shame South Sydney have waited this long to click. Two losses to the Bulldogs earlier in the season along with defeats to minnows such as Cronulla and Roosters has really cost the marquee team. I hope they continue their run and a finals berth would be a wonderful achievement but I fear their mountain is too big to climb. North QLD, Brisbane and Newcastle are all accomplished opponents so winning all three would set the competition alight. Sadly, I am a realist and those wanting the fairytale to come true are best off taking the all-up price of about $11+ for the Bunnies to win all three. Sandow, Crocker and Merritt are a joy to watch at present.

Bulldogs ($201): The Bulldogs are mathematically alive, but once again, they may have left their run too late. Unlike Souths though, they aren’t playing great footy and an upset win at Brookvale this week seems a longshot.

 

So there you have it. I think it is quite clear that the picture is very unclear. Do you want to back a team who is well positioned but just going through the motions (Melb, Manly) or do you want to hop on board a side that is making a well-timed run (Bris, Wests, NZ)? Or do you show faith in the Cowboys with JT returning from injury or even take a punt that the Dragons will bounce back? Try and find some value which ever way you go.

Enjoy the next six weeks. I know I will.

 

Please note, I'll post my RWC thoughts in a few weeks.

 

 

Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images AsiaPac