NFL Preview: AFC North
Leading up to the NFL season kickoff, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham will break down each division and offer recommended bets with the last offering being a look at the playoff picture and overall Super Bowl wagers. It is a must for every fan.
PART 3: AFC NORTH
Nick Tedeschi
In 2009, I was high on Baltimore and the Ravens didn’t let me down. Last season, I rode the Steelers from preseason all the way to the Super Bowl. I love the way football is played in the AFC North, I think it is the best division in football (at least at the top end) and it is a division you can get a good grip on if you understand the fundamentals of the way football is played there.
This year, it is Baltimore I will hopefully be riding all the way to the Super Bowl.
The Steelers enter the season as The Big Dogs again. They are coming off a close Super Bowl loss and they have had very little player turnover, at least in the key roles. The defence again looks fearsome, Ben is still Ben, the offense still looks productive and the schedule gets a hell of a lot easier.
But there are some major question marks over the Steelers.
The first is their aging defence. They clearly have the oldest defence in the NFL. That, in itself, is not overly concerning but the worries regarding injuries to key personnel is. There is no more important defensive player on any team than Troy Polamalu and the free-wheeling safety has had worries the last two years, missing significant time in 2009 and playing hurt in the playoffs in 2010. The Steelers were slightly above average with injury luck in 2010 and were clearly the top defence in the NFL but top defensive units often suffer a slide the following year.
The second is the run. The Steelers have a below average running game with Rashard Mendenhall and you need to be able to run the ball in the AFC North.
Third, they were the beneficiaries of the second biggest turnover ratio in the NFL in 2010. That regression to the mean should see a couple of wins fall from their tally, particularly when factoring in the Super Bowl hangover and the melodrama that surrounded the club in the offseason. They are still a 10 win team to my eye but this will be the year they get passed by Baltimore.
I am an unabashed Joe Flacco fan and have been ever since he entered the NFL. He is big, he is strong, he is smart and most importantly, he is a winner. He doesn’t post huge numbers but he doesn’t have too and I was thrilled to read in the Football Outsiders Almanac noted that Flacco’s statistics through his first three years as a starter were similar to Tom Brady and Brett Favre in their first three seasons.
Flacco is set to lead a much improved offense. Lee Evans is a huge upgrade at wide receiver and is a much better fit with Flacco. Evans’ straight-line speed and threat deep, something missing with the likes of Derrick Mason and company, will open up the running game for Ray Rice, which should improve significantly with the acquisition of top blocking fullback Vonta Leach and change of pace back Ricky Williams. Anquan Boldin will also play a major role. Baltimore’s offense oscillated between slightly above average to slightly below. This season it should be well above.
Baltimore’s quality defence should also improve. There are question marks over the aging Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and how the loss of Kelly Gregg will impact the team but there is no disputing its quality, ranking 3rd in scoring average despite ranking 19th in games lost by defenders to injury. Haloti Ngata is a beast who disrupts all pass offenses while Terrell Suggs is an elite linebacker. The Ravens can win 12 games and the division and are good enough to win it all.
Leave me out of both the Bengals and the Browns.
The Bengals are a rabble on the rebuild. They were stiff to lose as many as they did last year but a new offensive coordinator and a new quarterback, whoever that may be (let’s hope they go for rookie Andy Dalton), losing some key personnel on defence (led by Jonathan Joseph) and still having Marvin Lewis as head coach does little to fill me with any confidence they will improve quickly. They look a 4-6 win team again.
The Browns certainly have more upside than the Bengals this year. I’m not sure about the head coach hire but the move back to an almost pure West Coast offense will suit Colt McCoy and the Browns do have a quality offensive line and some nice tight ends. They also suffered horribly with injury last year. But their defence is below average and I remain unconvinced about their ability to match it with teams at their own level let alone the likes of Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I have them as a 6 win team, below where most experts are forecasting.
Predicted Finish: Baltimore 12-4, Pittsburgh 10-6, Cleveland 6-10, Cincinnati 4-12
Recommended Bets
· 2 units on Baltimore to win AFC North at $2.36 (Pinnacle)
· 1.5 units on Baltimore Over 11 wins at $3.17 (Pinnacle)
Cliff Bingham
Last year they went a collective 9-7 against the NFC South, 7-9 against the AFC East and 5-3 against the rest of the AFC, good enough to tie for second in my divisional power rankings. This year they get the AFC South (predicting 9-7) and the phenomenally putrid NFC West (predicting 11-5, and it could get more lopsided than that), so as a collective I think the AFC North will jump significantly from 33 wins up to 37 this season. Hold that thought for a moment.
So we have four additional wins to hand out across the AFC North. To be honest, I’m thinking about taking wins off Pittsburgh, who went 12-4 last season en route to losing the Super Bowl. To be fair, the old ‘Super Bowl hoodoo’ is not as bad as it once was – Indy went 10-6 last year, Arizona went 10-6 in 2009 and New England went 11-5 in 2008. Nonetheless a small dip is on the cards, especially when you consider that they won five or seven regular season games decided by less than a touchdown last year. The Mike Tomlin/ Ben Roethlisberger combination can’t keep jagging lucky wins forever – I have the Steelers going 10-6.
Baltimore shuffle up into the AFC North title for mine, though I still don’t trust Joe Flacco to deliver more than 12 wins, so will leave the Ravens on last season’s 12-4 figure.
The Bengals may have lost six of eight matches decided by less than a touchdown last season, but they’ve willingly signed Bruce Gradkowski to stand under centre for them in 2011. I can’t give them any more than a one win increase to a 5-11 season this time out of principle.
So that leaves the Browns. I’m going to call in my second piece of Bill Simmons-derived wisdom here: every season has a sleeper that comes off a 5-win or less season and shocks the world, moving up to at least ten wins and a playoff berth despite little to no pre season hype. The Browns tick all of those boxes.
Cleveland went 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year, with the other six games leading to wins over the Saints and Patriots and losses to the Falcons, Ravens and Steelers (twice). That’s totally respectable. Peyton Hillis was a huge find for them last season, and Colt McCoy was better than you think – take out matches against the Ravens and Steelers and he played five games for 77 comp/ 119 attempts (65% completions) for 937 yards, four TDs and only the one pick. Oh yeah, and he beat the Saints and Pats and lost by less than a touchdown to the Jets, Jaguars and Bengals.
The Browns have a new coach in Pat Shurmur, who you may remember as the 2010 QB coach at St Louis, guiding Sam Bradford to the cusp of the NFC West title. I expect him to be good for McCoy’s progress. Now check out an interesting quirk in their schedule – they don’t play Baltimore until week 13 (the second time is in week 16) and Pittsburgh until week 14 (with the second match in week 17). Fresh faces plus new coach plus easier schedule equals my sleeper pick for 2011 – the 10-6 Cleveland Browns.
Predicted finish: Baltimore 12-4, Cleveland 10-6 (wild card), Pittsburgh 10-6, Cincinnati 5-11.
Recommended bets
· 1 unit on Baltimore to win the AFC North at $2.00 (IAS)
· 2 units on Cleveland to win more than 6 games at $1.57 (IAS)
